Leeds

Leeds vs Brighton

, KO: 15:00 , Elland Road
Brighton

Leeds United’s last Premier League home fixture of the season will see them welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Elland Road on Sunday afternoon.

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The hosts secured top-flight survival with a watching brief last weekend, as Arsenal’s 1-0 win over West Ham ensured their safety for next season.

However, that didn’t see Daniel Farke’s side ease off when they travelled to Tottenham on Monday night, coming away with a hard-earned 1-1 draw.

Now back on home soil for the final time this season, the Whites will be aiming to put a dent in Brighton’s European aspirations.

Following a 3-1 defeat at Newcastle on their previous away day, Brighton bounced back with a comfortable 3-0 win over Wolves last weekend.

That victory leaves Fabian Hurzeler’s side sitting 7th in the Premier League table heading into the weekend, six points adrift of 5th-placed Aston Villa.

How the bookies view it: Seagulls set for another success

With Leeds having little left to play for beyond pride, it’s no surprise to see the hosts go into this clash as 21/10 outsiders with bet365.

As for Brighton, they head into the contest as 11/10 favourites with the same firm, while the draw has been priced up at 13/5.

Head-to-head: History against the hosts

Brighton narrowly lead the all-time head-to-head record with 20 wins compared to Leeds’ 18, while the other 14 encounters have ended all square. The Seagulls claimed a 3-0 success in this season's reverse fixture, and the same scoreline on Sunday pays a towering 22/1 on bet365.

Players to watch: Dom to deliver?

Having netted his 13th league goal of the season away at Tottenham on Monday night, Dominic Calvert-Lewin looks good value for either a goal or an assist here at 11/10 on bet365.

After being fouled twice against Wolves last weekend, Brighton's Jack Hinshelwood holds plenty of appeal to earn his side at least one free kick during this contest at 6/4 on bet365.

Predicted line-ups

Pascal Struijk is a doubt after being forced off against Tottenham last time out, while Gabriel Gudmundsson, Ilia Gruev, Jayden Bogle and Noah Okafor all missed that game and could be absent again here. Facundo Buonanotte misses out through ineligibility against his parent club and a hamstring injury that would have sidelined him anyway.

Adam Webster, Diego Gomez, Kaoru Mitoma, Mats Wieffer and Stefanos Tzimas are all currently on the treatment table for Brighton, while both James Milner and Solly March are considered touch and go.

Leeds: Darlow; Bijol, Bornauw, Rodon; James, Stach, Tanaka, Ampadu, Justin; Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin

Brighton: Verbruggen; Veltman, Van Hecke, Boscagli, Kadioglu; Ayari, Gross; Minteh, Hinshelwood, Rutter; Welbeck

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Brighton win

Brighton arrive at Elland Road carrying some of the strongest away attacking numbers in the Premier League. Across their last eight away games they have accumulated 15.00 xPTS, the second highest total of any away side in the division over that period. Their attacking output remains elite, producing 41 shots on target across those eight matches at an average of 5.125 per game.

That level of chance creation compares strongly against Leeds' home shots on target conceded figure of 24 over the same timeframe. Brighton continue to generate high quality opportunities away from home and their away xG battle won rate of 44.4% reflects a side consistently competing well on the road.

Leeds' home defensive numbers still deserve respect. Their non penalty xGA of only 0.51 across the last four home matches is the strongest defensive figure of any home side playing Sunday and should keep the contest tight. Brighton's superior attacking process across both four and eight game samples still gives them the stronger overall profile heading into this fixture.

Anything else catch the eye?

Combining both teams to score alongside both teams to receive a card will engineer an eye-catching even money (1/1) Bet Builder on bet365.

This selection would have been the right one in three of Leeds' last five league matches, including Monday night's 1-1 draw with Spurs.

The case for siding with this Bet Builder is bolstered by the fact that it has banked in each of Brighton's last two top-flight road matches.

Leeds vs Brighton Betting Tips & Predictions
Both Teams to Score & Both Teams To Be Carded
1/1
Bet365
Dominic Calvert-Lewin To Score or Assist
11/10
Bet365
Jack Hinshelwood To Be Fouled 1+ Time
6/4
Bet365
Further Reading
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All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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