ONE of the toughest last-16 matches to call was Brazil-Chile and Brazil-Colombia in the quarters is just as difficult.
In the end I made the right assumptions in the last round by tipping Brazil to qualify but advising a back to lay bet on Chile.
This confused some people but those were the ones who don't understand the back to lay concept. Chile were such a big price that to profit you only needed them to take the lead, stay level for a good spell or even look like they might win it.
When they equalised before half-time and with Brazil looking nervous there was an opportunity to lay the bet for a small profit and again during penalties.
Colombia are similarly priced and should give Brazil a tough game so the advice again is to back to lay them because I expect Brazil to qualify, possibly on penalties.
The Colombians have been the stand-out team, with the stand-out star in James Rodriguez, but a match against the hosts is more about nerve than ability. Chile were well fancied in the last 16 but the occasion got them and they succumbed in the shoot-out.
Colombia will be hugely supported at big prices but it's difficult to escape from the notion Brazil will sneak through to the semi-finals.
They haven't impressed but it's worth noting they are unbeaten in 41 games on home soil with their last defeat coming 12 years ago in a friendly against Paraguay.
I'm struggling to back Brazil at a best 20-23 at boylesports to win in 90 minutes and no bigger than 2-5 with William Hill and others to qualify.
So the best play could be to gamble on a draw after 90 minutes at 11-4 with Betfred then take the tie to go to a shoot-out at 6-1 (Skybet). By picking a winner on pens you will at least double your odds but that's a lottery of course.
Colombia are 19-5 at BetVictor and McBookie and if they play without fear and Rodriguez gets on the ball they'll have a chance. That price allows the alternative of choosing Colombia or draw at 1-1 with Coral.
Neymar has almost single-handedly guided Brazil through but there are question marks over his fitness after he was clattered by the Chileans. If he's not 100 per cent fit then pile into Colombia.
The Barcelona ace is 4-1 at Ladbrokes to hit the opener and 6-5 at bet365 to net. Rodriguez, tournament top scorer with five, is 8-1 with McBookie to break the deadlock and 14-5 to score.
According to easyodds three of the last four meetings have finished 0-0 and no scorer pays 9-1 at BetVictor and McBookie. Easyodds point out Colombia have failed to score against Brazil in nine of their last 11 meetings and boylesports go 15-8 a clean sheet for the hosts.
Recommended Bets
Penalty shoot-out
(6-1, Skybet)
Colombia not to lose
(1-1, Coral)
Back Colombia to lay
(19-5, McBookie, BetVictor)
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In December 2020 we sadly 
Echoes my own thinking. Colombia much better, but so much about nerve at this point. I might go for a Yankee on all four games to go to penalties. Decent profit if two of them do
Penalty shoot outs
Brazil- Colombia
Argentina- Belgium
Germany – France
2 points on each of the singles
1 point on each of the doubles
Half point on the treble
All good runs must come to an end and I reckon Colombia will have too much for Brazil. James Rodriguez has been the player of the tournament and along with Cuadrado and Martinez Colombia have the tools to take Brazil apart. I think Colombia will be playing without fear as opposed to Brazil who have all the expectations of being the host nation. 2-1 Colombia for me – Martinez and Rodriguez with Neymar scoring a consolation for Brazil…
Bingo, Colombia deserve it the way they’ve played but I can’t ignore the stat that says Brazil haven’t lost at home for 12 years. Just hope it’s a great game – goodnight all.
The thing that worries me is Brazil is due a decent game and the pressure looks to have got to them a bit being the host nation but they are due a big game could that be against colombia ?
Columbia v Brazil
Columbia games so far 4-4, 5-5, 2-9 & 3-5. All these games Columbia have won.
Brazil games so far 7-3, 4-3(Mexico), 7-6 & 9-5(Chile).
If Brazil take the lead Columbia will have to go for it and I’ll be on over 4.5 Columbia corners at evens. Brazil corner line is set at 6.5.
Main bets
Over 4.5 Columbia corners 1/1
Columbia +2 corner handicap 20/21
Small stakes
Columbia RT7 5/1
Over 14 corners 9/2
Colombia double chance
germany to qualify
argentina to qualify
holland to qualify
£20 @ 6/1
Mr F, when you say back to lay, do you mean laying Brazil on the theory that Colombia are likely to have a good spell or score first?
Byron, exactly. Worked with Chile game and as you say it’s a done deal if Colombia score first.
I would like to see Columbia beat them but mr f is right the stats don’t lie.
I like the look of an over 10 corners and 3.5 cards bet tonight combined with Brazil to qualify
Pays around 5/1
Does anybody know card stats between these two teams. Do you think there will be many shown?
Deeman, I think thats a great price. What bookie is offering 5/1??
Brazil VS Columbia
David Luiz First Goalscorer @ 33/1
David Luiz Anytime Goalscorer @ 12/1
Germany VS France
Mat Hummells First Goalscorer @ 40/1
Mat Hummels Anytime Goalscorer @ 16/1
I’ve also backed the following going by the recent games:
Germany, Argentina, Brazil and Holland all to win in extra time. Bets consisting of 6 doubles, 4 trebles and an accumulator. Each double returns around 100/1.
Also I’ve backed no Goalscorer in all four games. Bets consisting of 6 doubles, 4 trebles and an accumulator. Each double returns around 80/1.
For the above bets all I’m hoping for is a double. Anything more than this would be magical. Good luck everyone!!
morning guys, i think that colombia have been hyped up too much, dont get me wrong they are a good enough team but who have they played yet, they came through possibly the easiest group and then played uruguay who looked like a sunday league team at times. so on those thoughts i think brazil will win tonight, one way or the other we will see what colombia is made of, good luck all with your bets.
Big Mick, I think Rodrigez is going to destroy the shabby Brazilian defense.
cooldude there no doubt that the brazilian defence is shabby but i just think brazil can open up their defence more often which will create more chances for brazil.
I Think both games are going to go to extra time of course all the teams today are more than capable of scoring over 2 goals each on there day.
Mark, the thing about both matches is no one really knows. It’s a day for low stakes or no stakes and simply watch and enjoy the games.
James rodriguez to score 2 ore more 25-1.. A fiver woudnt go a miss!
Problem everyone is thinking Colombia are unstoppable. There like France. Who have they played? Nobody. Ivory Coast a joke, Greece are pathetic and Japan we’re playing in Japanese. They then played a Uruguay side still feeling there best player going.
If Brazil can out play an impressive chile side and were unlucky not to run riot on them why can’t they do this against a Colombia side.
Super single::::: Brazil to win in 90 mins 5/6
Buy me a drink
Nicely done with Hummells to score first Chris Guy. I like the look of your other bets too. Good luck.
Any suggestions for insurance/clever bets for Brazil V Colobia BTTS. Interested in what others do in this situation.
#noshocks
I wish id seen this earlier chris guy! Outstanding!
2 tips Today not taking anyone else’s advice and success. Germany and Brazil.
Buy me a drink haha
The mora my super single is Belgium at 13 /8
Mr F not good at all looks like you got a bad day
captain, I had £10k on Brazil to qualify and a fiver on Colombia (back to lay) so not all bad.
Sorry cool dude didn’t see your reply
It was with bet 365
One corner off :(
Nice one Mr F :)