Nothing to shout about with the final bet of last week, with Pepe Le Moko delivering a disappointing effort. Back at it this week ahead of Wednesday’s action.
| Wincanton - 15:05 |
The Blueberry One |
6/1 |
Today’s port of call will be the 15:05 at Wincanton, a race that has quite a strong early market leader in the form of Gentleman Jacques, who warrants respect under a claimer following what was a wide-margin success last time out. However, I’d argue that strong support for that runner allows The Blueberry One to be available at a slightly generous price.
The mount of Alice Stevens remains very lightly raced, while he enters this contest off the back of a pleasing second when returning from a 294-day break at Ffos Las last month.
Dangerous to dismiss an in-form trainer who does well at this venue
The form of that effort last time out hasn’t been overly franked by the winner, who followed up with a fairly decent third at Sandown, while the horse to finish fifth has since won over fences.
That second at Ffos Las was definitely a positive return, though, with the gelding enjoying the testing conditions, shaping as though today’s slight step up in trip would suit, while he should certainly strip fitter for that effort.
Harry Derham is a trainer who has had his runners in decent condition of late, while he’s also a trainer with a fine Wincanton record, winning with seven of his last 21 runners at the venue, delivering a very pleasing win/place strike rate of 47.62%. It’s thus not difficult to see that he knows how to target contests at the Somerset track.
If we look back to some of the form he showed as a novice, especially on heavy ground at Newbury, where he finished sixth (of 13) in a decent race, then I’d also conclude that a mark of 105 is likely to prove below his ceiling. In that Newbury novice contest, he wasn’t far behind a few horses that have since achieved ratings in the 120s.
At the same time, he had a couple in behind him that day that have since performed well in better races than this, such as Hashting, who ended up running very well in a hot Sandown race from a mark of 119.
Lightly-raced and seemingly going in the right direction, this runner ticks a few too many boxes ahead of a race that ultimately lacks depth for odds of 6/1 not to be considered a little generous.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 96 Naps) has a running P/L of +£5.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
In December 2020 we sadly 
