There can be no excuses for both of Saturday's picks at Aintree; they both underperformed based on how strong they were in the market.
No Drama This End jumped well for the majority of the race, but Sam Twiston-Davies was never too confident in the saddle. You could see the horses in behind travelling better than NDTE, and he finished in a very disappointing last place. He might need further, but he's definitely no Denman, like Paul Nicholls kept saying he was.
Boombawn tried to make the running, and when push came to shove he found little and was eventually pulled up.
Just A Glance 4/1 – Sandown 1.40
I don't think there should be anywhere near as big a gap between Just A Glance and White Noise in the market; in fact, I'd say Just A Glance deserves to head the market.
White Noise was a 40/1 shock winner of the Mares' Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham last year, and was then second at Haydock in April. Just A Glance was behind her in third, and was in receipt of 5lbs from the Cheltenham winner. For today's race, since it's a handicap, the weights are even further in the favour of Just A Glance.
Just A Glance is 17lbs lighter than the favourite, and considering she was two lengths behind at Haydock whilst being 5lb lighter, I think this huge weight difference is going to play a massive role. Also, Just A Glance had a run just over two weeks ago, which should mean that her fitness is assured, meaning she has no excuses.
Stratton Oakmont 9/2 – Ffos 1.52
If you were to look at this race without the jockey bookings, you'd expect Sparkling Duke to carry the first colours of the owners, and you'd also expect him to be the shorter one of the two in the market. However, he is a few points larger in the betting, and that is all down to Harry Cobden being on Stratton Oakmont.
Harry Cobden has had a good relationship with the Kayley Woollacott stable over the last five years, and they combined at a 58% strike rate last year, so seeing him booked up for Stratton Oakmont over Sparkling Duke says that is the best chance of the two. This doesn't look like the best of races, and with fitness being a question for all but one in the race, it might be worth chancing this horse.
He is a ten-year-old, but he is lightly raced for his age, with just 24 hurdle runs under his belt. He has managed to win three races over hurdles, with the last two coming at Exeter, and since that win last November, he hasn't been in great form. Maybe this time of year, when he arrives fresh, is the right time to catch him.
GambleAware