This is going live before the final runner of Saturday's Lucky 15 has run.
From the runners who have completed, Padishakh has been the sole winner at 7/1, so that means money has been returned due to the double the odds if you have one winner in a Lucky 15. Hopefully, the final runner can win and secure some profit.
Update: Mammies Boy managed to win and secured a decent profit on Saturday's Lucky 15. 4/1 and 7/1 winners.
Sunday's Lucky 15 is advised as an each-way Lucky 15.
Jonquil 11/2 (4pl) – Longchamp 3.25
For the French 2000 Guineas, I have decided to go with Jonquil.
This horse made a very good impression on his debut run last August when trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He was well supported on his run the time after when upped in grade, but he did not run like the connections and the punters expected, with something clearly wrong. Since Sir Michael Stoute has retired, he has gone to Andrew Balding's yard and returned to the track with a scintillating performance in the Greenham over 7f. He put up big numbers at Newbury and wasn't stopping at the line, and his pedigree gives hope that the step up in trip will suit and bring out further improvement.
At the time of writing, he is the second favourite, but is still decent odds of 11/2.
Celestial Orbit 16/1 (4pl) – Longchamp 4.05
The main horses are well found in the market, but I don't think they have outstanding claims and are enough to write off some of the bigger priced horses in this French 1000 Guineas.
Given the form of Ollie Sangster, and how well his horses ran during the Guineas weekend, including in the 1000 Guineas, he knows what he is doing when he decided to supplement his horses for these races, so I am more than happy to put Celestial Orbit in the Lucky 15 as she does have an each way chance of at least hitting the frame.
She is a lightly raced horse and has run to 102 2x according to RPRs. Those runs have been over 7f, and there could be improvement to come over a mile, and if that is the case, she is definitely a live chance at a good price. She will be ridden cold and ridden to get the trip due to having Jamie Spencer on board, so we might have to settle for a frustrating watch, but if she is coming strong with a couple of furlongs to go, we could be laughing.
Sweet Chariot 11/1 (3pl) – Leopardstown 2.20
Even though I am ignoring the Aidan O'Brien battalion over at Longchamp, I am prepared to side with one of his at Leopardstown.
Sweet Chariot has caught my eye for this race as I don't believe the main protagonists are that far ahead of the ones who are at bigger prices. Sweet Chariot was not a fantastic juvenile horse, but she showed a much better level of form on her return six days ago, and if she was not 100% for that run and she has come on for it, she is a much bigger player than the odds suggest.
She has a fantastic pedigree, being by Wooten Basset and out of Clemmie, who was a very useful filly back in her day. The way that Aidan's horses have been running this week, and the ones who improved from first to second run, the same could happen to Sweet Chariot, who also might be a lot better this season as she has had time to mature.
Federated 11/2 (4pl) – Newcastle 4.35
I was tempted to go for the William Haggas runner, as he boasts a 30% SR at this track, but another trainer who does well at Newcastle from his Newmarket base is John Butler, and I have been impressed by Federated in the way he has been progressing, so he got the nod.
This horse isn't a spring chicken, but for some reason, the last 12 months he has started to find his feet, and it doesn't look like he is stopping. He started off in handicaps off a mark of 57, won off 55 and has managed to win three more times since and on his latest start, he won off 73, recording an RPR of 82. He has gone up 4lbs for that latest victory, but he is running well, had race fitness on his side and John is willing to travel to Newcastle again, which has been a decent place for him with one win and one runner-up finish on his CV at this track, as well as a third the time before last.
GambleAware