Saturday’s Racing Tips – Twig can cause an upset in the Bet365 Hurdle Grade 2

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I won't be touching the Sue Smith yard for some time, not until they land a fair few winners. Prairie Wolf was weak in the market, eventually going off as the outsider of the four who ran, and weakened very quickly before turning for home, going from competing to then be in last spot in a matter of strides.

I can't comment on the second runner as he runs just before midnight, so hopefully he runs a big run at the Breeders' Cup.

Rizzel's Tips

Leader In The Park 13/8 – Ascot 1.30

For me, this race has to be between the new two chase debutantes hailing from the Ben Pauling yard. Of that pair, I've gone with Leader In The Park to come out victorious.

Samarrive and What Path already have experience over fences, but neither of them have exactly pulled up any stumps, so I think it is best to go for a newcomer who could be a on lenient mark now jumping a fence. I decided to look past the Nicky Henderson runner as I didn't quite rate his performances over hurdles as much as I did Bad, and Nicky's yard is running a little below average at present. Bad had some good handicap form last year, including at this track, so it's very interesting that the first stable jockey, Ben Jones, has opted to ride the bottom weight, Leader In The Park, and that was a big indicator that this horse was the one to be on.

I really like it when trainers spend little time with their horse's over hurdles and they send them chasing with a limited amount of runs, and that's something which is happening with Leader In The Park. When a horse has only had four runs over hurdles and then they get chucked into a good race (on paper) like this, it tells you that they have always seen this horse as a chaser, but also they clearly think he's on an attractive mark, and then when the stable jockey is on board, that's the cherry on top of the cake.

Twig 13/2 – Wetherby 2.22

These type of races where it's a Grade 2 at the start of the season can often chuck up a few surprises as many in the race aren't ready for the race, with this being their first run out and a prep etc. So, at a bit of a price I thought Twig was worth a chance, now he's reverting over hurdles after a great season over fences.

It's actually surprising how well Twig did last year, as I didn't think he was capable of finishing as runner-up in the Ultima at the Cheltenham, especially on heavy ground. He is a 9-year-old, but a very lightly raced horse, so it might be the fact that he is still improving, which sounds ridiculous. He was prolific in the PTP world, all of his wins being on good ground in that sphere. He then made a good impression when running over hurdles, winning on good ground, so the ground for today's race will be spot on for him.

Last year, he proved himself to be versatile on the ground, but he also took his form to a new level. Ben Pauling had a cracking season last year, and had recently moved his stable, so maybe Twig was a big beneficiary of that. I think he can prove himself to be dangerous in this race despite being on the lower end of the ratings.

Williethebuilder 13/8 – Wetherby 3.32

I don't think this race is particularly strong, and it might look more competitve than it actually is. Personally, I think Williethebuilder has a very good chance of winning this, and that's probably why he is being so respected in the market, as many share the same opinion as me.

He was unlucky not to win last time out, not because he made a mistake late in the race, but more that he bumped into a horse who has shown an improved level form and was still lightly raced. We don't know how strong that form is as the winner hasn't run since, but going from those in behind, I think it can be rated as a good run. The third-placed horse runs earlier in the card, in the same race that I've tipped up Twig, but that's a tough race so I don't think you can read too much into it, but based on that run I think back in a handicap it won't be long before he is winning.

Last year Williethebuilder ran in some strong novice races, including the Grade 2 early into the season at Cheltenham, which saw him finish a respectable 4th/8, and then ran a decent race in a handicap at the same venue. His form did take a dip after that, but he did have a wind-op over the summer and it seemed to have worked nicely at this track last time out on his seasonal reappearance, so I think with that run under his belt he should be able to win a race of this level before progressing into tougher races.

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