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The Moore and Charlton combo did me another favour on Friday as they landed me another winner with Hand Of God who won at advised odds of 15/8.
Hand Of God looks a real nice prospect going forward for connections and I'm looking forward to seeing him next time out. Ryan Moore gave him a great ride from the front and he showed a great attitude to knuckle down as the pack tried to reign him in.
Nostrum wasn't at the races again and I'm sure connections are scratching their heads wondering what's gone wrong. He was a bit tight for room during the race, which was the only excuse I could find. When the gaps finally opened up he found nothing off the bridle and was eventually eased down in the end by Ryan Moore.
Although I've avoided tipping up in the meeting at Sandown, I'm still very much looking forward to watching it. The match-up of El Fabiolo v Jonbon will be a cracker, while I'm also looking forward to seeing Kitty's Light run in the Bet365 Gold Cup.
My sole selection of the day comes from the meeting at Leicester.
Thunder Roar 4/1 – Leicester 2:05
The advertised ground conditions for Leicester at the moment is soft, but according to other reports that I've read, the current ground conditions are boarding on the verge of heavy. It is always hard to know which source is true and what is not, I can only go by what's in front of me but it'll be at the very least soft which is still ideal for my selection.
His form on testing ground is probably the best on offer, with form figures of 213112. My selection comes here on the back of a solid run at Doncaster last time out which saw him finish second behind Look Back Smiling.
I caught a replay of the Doncaster race and he can probably count himself a tad unlucky not to win that day. Thunder Roar was denied a clear run on multiple occasions, jockey Jamie Spencer had to sit and wait for the gap to open before producing him and when the gap finally opened he fairly flew home to go down by only half a length in the end.
A 3lb rise for that effort seems fair enough, and with conditions to suit, I think Thunder Roar has every chance of winning off a career-high mark.
Al Mubhir 2.05 Lecicester tomorrow 11/4
Only bet tomorrow. Thought it was worth sharing as there’s a fair few good stats/pointers even if not for tomorrow but for the season ahead.
Have been waiting for this one to run. Won this race last year in very similar conditions by almost 5 lengths. Clearly enjoyed the track that day. Loves soft ground which he gets tomorrow.
What really caught my eye was the yards stats at the track. They have a very decent 26% strke rate here, but if you dig a bit deeper you see they have a 41% strike rate with their handicap runners here , with 7 wins from 17 ( over the last 5 seasons). They have had 9 older horses ( 4 yo and over) run on turf so far this season, with 3 of them winning for a 33% strike rate ( Al Muhbir is a 5 yo).
Think the price will be backed in like almost all of my bets do, so if anyone else likes it I’d say get on early.
Will go really close tomorrow, he’s 7 lb higher than last years win here but the gelding operation will bring on a ton of improvement you’d imagine. Holds a group 3 entry at Leopardstown next month also, so really needs to be winning this to get a shot at that.
All the best everyone tomorrow .
Just thought I’d point out there seemed to be a commentor confused about my bet on Hand Of God today, if anyone looks back early in the week, I think Monday was when I backed it at 4/1 at the opening show, you will see I mentioned there I had been waiting for this horse to run and it would be very hard to beat. I’ll see if I can find it and copy it down. Welll done Cairnzy also who was keen on it.
Here is the paragraph in question. I layed Midair which got beat at 8/13 and backed Hand Of God at 4/1.
_______
One to lay for fellow exchange players is Harry Charlton’ Midair at Epsom 4.30. Will need the run today so will likely find at least one too good.
One I’ve been waiting for from the same yard on Friday is Hand Of God. Will take all the beating.
little stat worth sharing for tonight…Oisin Murphy and Hugo Palmer have a 50% strike rate when combining at Wolverhampton.
Oisin has actually won on 6 of his last 9 rides for Hugo Palmer.
Havanaram 8pm is the only runner of the day for the yard. They have a very decent record so far this season with their 3 yo AW runners with a 28% strike rate with 11 winners from 40.
They’ve given him a good 6 weeks break to freshen him up after some good runs on the AW. He won after a break at the beginning of the year, so this could be the key today.
5/2 or a little bigger is generally the price now. I’ll be on for a half point only. Will wait to see how main bet runs before deciding whether to bet.
Will take a little break off here so maybe be back for the jumps season. All the best everyone, Chris,
I’ll quickly mention my bet for tomorrow as well. Elmonjed 4.15 Soutwell. 11/4 currently available with bookmakers. Really well bred type. Has a fantastic attitude, If you watch his previous runs its hard not to be impressed. His debut he was slowly away but got going 2 from home and pulled away really impressively., pretty sure it was a record time on the day as well for the track if I remember correctly.
Harry Charlton has Blue Day in this. Really nice colt and will definitely go close getting weight. It’s a reasonable opening handicap mark as well. Same silks as Hand Of God. Yard are 4 from 7 with 3 year old on the AW this season.
Confident bet for me tomorrow with this William Haggas gelding. Can see decent money coming as well so I’ll be getting on early as possible.
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Santa Anita -Race 9 …Goodfella 15/2 Ew *** Paddy Power
Ex Brit horse ⬆️ nobody better than Michael Mcarthy with these recruits. Here’s hoping good to go on debut he’s a good %
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Missed that race I fell asleep Collard right on the line! ?
Onwards ?
Put Amirite up yesterday at 7/1 and will add a couple more now.
1.50 Helnwein 20/1 ew 5 places
Beaten 5L by current fav Secret Squirrel lto but get 5lbs today and the better ground today will be more to his liking. Odds are too big imo.
5.20 Gold Dancer 8/1 ew 5 places
Only his 3rd start for WM having contested a grade 1 and 2 in his first 2 starts.
Big drop in class today and a mark of 130 could be lenient
Some great races to look forward to today
BOL
Well done with Helnwein, I got 14s but I won’t moan ?
That’ll do nicely !!
1-33 Nietzsche has 3-1
2-15 la manigance 12-1 ew 5 places bet365.
2-50 sel jem 11-8
3-25 jalila moriviere 9-4
4-00 kibboutz
6-5 top 2 finish Ladbrokes
4-1 win
80-20 stake
Auteuil ?? ⬆️⬆️
misriya 10 45 france
What a shout mate just caught it last minute stuck £5 on it got £20 back covers my football bets ?
cheers thestigno1
legend of Arthur 10 50 turfontain
Was too late to get this one on but another great shout
What’s up next ?
flash colonges 3.35 ew courland 3.35 ew
steel ally 1.50 ew
hitman 2.25 jonbon 3.00
krypios 4.00 nap well done all winners yesterday
roman tempest 4.20 ew nb
nickleback 4.45
2/5 today.
Nietzsche has and kibboutz won.
Not the usual Saturday wipeout which makes a change.
Well done winners
Mention to DC for that 14-1 effort
?? Not much you won’t find if you look or much at a price but hard pre race in US so many races and prices that differ stateside.
Trebles (x15 bets)
4 folds (x10 bets)
5 Folds (x6 bets)
1 x Acca at around 298/1 or abouts …JUST in case ?
Aquaduct -Race 6…Carson’s Run 6/4 ***
Looks well ahead of the rest here after good run in much higher grade BUT big lay off compared to others or I’d be more confident. Still lightly raced and Dylan Davies been flying last 2 weeks.
Race 8..Overacting 9/4 **+
Just worry about Flavian Prat on favourite as he has 4 winners last night and probably just about the right favourite
Oaklawn Park -Race 8..Time For Truth 5/2 ***+
Tough race possibly to gauge with a few in here highly tried but they faltered and he’s just kept improving even when only 8L behind Muth in G1 before Breeders Cup so big class drop to.
Race 10..She Called 6/5 *** Skybet boost
Best of them all on debut by 6L and several of these were in behind so it will take a stinker or a cracking run from debut horse. Still touch short imo
Santa Anita -Race 4…The Chosen Vron 8/11 Skybet boost *****
Really only for Acca purposes but not worst price especially compared to others
GL yoll ? ?? ?⚖️ ?
Definitely working a cover bet at Santa Anita with The Chosen Vron and Forbidden Kingdom forecast
(Both in my tracker at tip market)
That be NO: 1-4