Racing tips: Southern Sam looks a safe pick against the exposed veterans

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Apologies that Sunday's thread is going up ridiculously early. It's not my favourite thing to do to put up selections for the next day very early as many of you might not get the prices, but I am out on Saturday evening, and I'd probably end up forgetting to post it 🤣

Hereford 2:10 – Southern Sam

I really do believe this could be a penalty kick for Southern Sam in this conditional jockeys' veterans' chase.

It's only a four-runner field, and I think you can confidently cross out at least two of the other three, if not all three runners. Burrows Park is 0/5 over fences, he is now a 12yo, and although he is on a very tempting mark there is an obvious reason why they haven't gone over fences with him. The Venetia stable is in a really big rut at the minute and is struggling for winners, with plenty of her horses being pulled up in recent weeks, so despite him being on such a low mark, he has to be looked past. Volcano would be a danger if this was at Warwick, but I do think this race will be a prep race for the race he's won three times in a row in March, he is 2lbs higher than when he won that race last year, so I'd imagine they'd want to get dropped a couple of pounds before that race. Innisfree Lad has been a cracking horse over the years, he stays forever but I think he would prefer a much sounder surface.

That leaves us with my fancy Southern Sam who is a lightly raced veteran, with just 9 races over fences and he is a horse who relishes soft conditions, so the heavy ground at Hereford will be perfect for him. The drop in trip from 3m 4f to today's trip of 3m 1f will be a huge benefit for him as he didn't quite get home at Fontwell over the longer trip last time out, but went through the majority of the race like a threat and he was backed into 5/2F. He is only 2lbs higher than when winning at Haydock on heavy ground over today's trip, and I do think he is on a good handicap mark and will have further improvement in him, even at the age of 10.

Hereford 3:40 – Abingworth

Similar to the first race, I don't think much in this race has a chance of winning and I'm quietly confident of Abingworth doing the business.

I watched his last race at Ludlow and he was only denied by a horse who was still on a decent handicap mark, being beaten on the line. I wasn't sure that Abingworth was going to handle the conditions at Ludlow last time out (soft), but he put in a cracking performance for a horse who is more proven on summer ground, so I'm hoping that he won't might the even softer conditions at Hereford. He has proven to stay a bit further than today's trip, so I think the soft conditions and slower pace they'll be going at will give him a strong chance of staying 2m 3f. He wasn't stopping at the line at Ludlow, and that gives me optimism that today's longer trip will benefit him.

The Gary Moore stable continues to be in great form and Caoilin Quinn is proving on a daily basis what a quality claimer he is, and the 3lbs he can claim is daylight robbery at this point.

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