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Apologies that Sunday's thread is going up ridiculously early. It's not my favourite thing to do to put up selections for the next day very early as many of you might not get the prices, but I am out on Saturday evening, and I'd probably end up forgetting to post it ?
Hereford 2:10 – Southern Sam
I really do believe this could be a penalty kick for Southern Sam in this conditional jockeys' veterans' chase.
It's only a four-runner field, and I think you can confidently cross out at least two of the other three, if not all three runners. Burrows Park is 0/5 over fences, he is now a 12yo, and although he is on a very tempting mark there is an obvious reason why they haven't gone over fences with him. The Venetia stable is in a really big rut at the minute and is struggling for winners, with plenty of her horses being pulled up in recent weeks, so despite him being on such a low mark, he has to be looked past. Volcano would be a danger if this was at Warwick, but I do think this race will be a prep race for the race he's won three times in a row in March, he is 2lbs higher than when he won that race last year, so I'd imagine they'd want to get dropped a couple of pounds before that race. Innisfree Lad has been a cracking horse over the years, he stays forever but I think he would prefer a much sounder surface.
That leaves us with my fancy Southern Sam who is a lightly raced veteran, with just 9 races over fences and he is a horse who relishes soft conditions, so the heavy ground at Hereford will be perfect for him. The drop in trip from 3m 4f to today's trip of 3m 1f will be a huge benefit for him as he didn't quite get home at Fontwell over the longer trip last time out, but went through the majority of the race like a threat and he was backed into 5/2F. He is only 2lbs higher than when winning at Haydock on heavy ground over today's trip, and I do think he is on a good handicap mark and will have further improvement in him, even at the age of 10.
Hereford 3:40 – Abingworth
Similar to the first race, I don't think much in this race has a chance of winning and I'm quietly confident of Abingworth doing the business.
I watched his last race at Ludlow and he was only denied by a horse who was still on a decent handicap mark, being beaten on the line. I wasn't sure that Abingworth was going to handle the conditions at Ludlow last time out (soft), but he put in a cracking performance for a horse who is more proven on summer ground, so I'm hoping that he won't might the even softer conditions at Hereford. He has proven to stay a bit further than today's trip, so I think the soft conditions and slower pace they'll be going at will give him a strong chance of staying 2m 3f. He wasn't stopping at the line at Ludlow, and that gives me optimism that today's longer trip will benefit him.
The Gary Moore stable continues to be in great form and Caoilin Quinn is proving on a daily basis what a quality claimer he is, and the 3lbs he can claim is daylight robbery at this point.
Black Hawk Eagle Morebattle Hurdle Kelso next Saturday 9/1 best now.
Yards next hurdler. Last 2 weeks, 4 runners with 3 winning. 5 winners from their last 10 runners. 43% strike rate with their hurdlers this season.
Big race with big pot but way yard going especially with their hurdlers wouldn’t be surprised to see them go win this. Clearly been layed out for this. Weather forecast and ground all in favour.
Needs to improve again but only had 6 runs over hurdles with 3 wins.
Yard only had 1 runner up there in the last 5 seasons and it was a winner.
Backed it a couple of weeks ago at 12/1. Shortened up and you’d expect it to see money through the week.
Just thought it was worth a quick mention for anyone who hadn’t noticed it
Worth noting Hills have slashed this to 11-2. Not sure if that’s just from today. Few firms are 9/1 still.
Dug a little deeper into Kerry Lee’ record at Kelso and realised she has had 3 runners in total since taking up her licence. 2 of them won, one of them was actually at this meeting last season. Really like this little pointer, they have clearly targeted this meeting.
Gets over a stone in weight off some of the other fancied runners. Really liking this for next week. I’ve backed it on both his wins this season, think I might have mentioned it both times on here. The way he won last time showed how much he had improved and there was any amount in the tank. I’ll be shocked if that 9/1 is still there even by Wednesday.
Could be a back to lay bet for fellow exchange punters the way the yards horses are being gambled of late, if that’s how you bet.
I’ll just leave it at that but I’ll likely pop back on later in the week . All the best everyone
Heidi’s Frontiere 1.55 Naas
Put this up last week but it got pulled
Very much doubt it will win but top 10 ew extra @ 40s worth a small investment
GL
Innisfree lad 2-10 Hereford.
betting without southern sam 9-4 SKYBET (NAP) ?
9-2 win
80-20 stake.
As rizzell has picked southern sam I’ve split stake but will still get decent profit if it chases Southern Sam home.
Won this race last year and 5 pound lower today and won a similar race 2 months ago.
2/2 at this right handed track also
Ahhh clash of the titans who will come out victorious!
I’m on volcano 7/2 for miss Lewis !
Hopefully both of us dazzman.
Southern Sam 1st
Innisfree lad 2nd
Everyone’s a winner ??
I’ve given up trying to make a bit of money at this now I just consider a very bad habit ?
As predicted. Well done
5:10 Hereford- were red and blue at a dizzy 2/1
10:50 turfontein- kindred heart 2/1
12:00 turfontein- golden sickle 11/8
4:10 Hereford- in D’or 9/2
That’s your 4 winners for today you can thank me later on ?
Innisfree Lad 9/2 Hereford 2.10 won this race last year off 12st 2lbs .
4lbs lower today and a C/D winner .I thought he would go off fav today.
I like young Fergus Gillard as a jockey too.
Cheltenham just around the corner cant wait.
Cagnes sur mer ??
12-35 knock on 11-8 top 2 finish @hills.
sahbaner 12.35 ew France well done all winners yesterday
bottler secret 1.25
Cheers for that one azz was gonna go for trust your instincts but you persuaded me other wise ? not a lot of profit I’ll give back to them In half hour ?
cheers dazzman 1979
Celtic sea 4-40 Hereford 7-2 on the nose.
2 others have better breeding but this has at least seen a racecourse coming 2nd
Bloody hell rizz got one ????????
Everyone’s a winner dazzles
I get my NAP, rizzell gets his NAP, now I’m off for a NAP ?️
If he gets the double it will help his hang over I’m sure . It’s a funny old game ! I did red carpet girl turfontein so that covered the day but won’t cover the losses over the years ? well done earlier .
Samtara surely lollipop head got get one in !
iron d ex 4.40 ew this horse is out quickly only ran last week
Yeah knowing me I picked the wrong Sheila Lewis horse ! So I’m on this ! Little lump on the nose !
well done all winners today
Jinxed !
2/1 seems quite big now on we’re red and blue
Javier is done you’ve made your millions time to retire now kid !
Race 7 Santa Anita sawasdee 10/3
??
Yankee and som forecasts…
Santa Anita -Race 6…Lisa’s Nonno 13/8 Skybet ****
Race 9…School Dance 9/2 ***+
Combo forecast No: = 10 -2 -3 and 5
Gulfstream – Race 8…Pandagate 6/4 Skybet boost ***+
Golden Gates -Race 4…Signorina Mersi 10/3 ****+
Forecast NO: = 6 -4
GL yoll and well done the winners today! ?
? ?? ?⚖️
*Forecast Golden Gates is 4 -5 ⬆️
It’s really as a SAVER bet as I’m doing a single obviously but a R/fc if ye please as I think it’s a 2 horse race.
Golden Gates -Race 4…Signorina Mersi 10/3 *****
Pretty sweet on this! ?
Won a 50K race here on Synthetic track with jockey Espinoza on board as he is tonight, was then put into a Grade 3 at Santa Anita ’ON TURF’ which was his first go on it and going of 33/1 rank outsider was no surprise looking at his Turf workouts he clearly doesn’t like it – not sure what connections were trying? ?♂️
I think he wins this barring a mishap but he likes to to come from the back so long as not terrible out the stalls he should be fine with Espinoza knowing horse well as he’s been on him EVERY win – this looks his best distance.
Current favourite NO: 4…Tam’s Little Angel 7/4 looks the only danger.