Racing tips: A longer trip can bring out further improvement for Ledger

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Joe Anderson has already ridden the best ride of the year and we're in the first week of 2024 as his horse Transmission won at Plumpton in the big pot of the day. Eldorado Allen was pushed along in the first mile, which is always impressive in a 3m race, and he was clearly not at the races.

Gold Clermont tracked a wide course in the Sussex National, and travelled powerfully like last time out but probably found the step up in class too much.

Newcastle 3:20 – Ledger 11/2 (1pt Williamhill)

It's not an ideal Monday with Ayr being cancelled and Taunton likely to follow suit, leaving us with some very poor AW action at Newcastle. The opening race looks to be a bit of a minefield with a few likely to have a chance on older pieces of form, but I've opted for a potential improver on this step up in trip.

Ledger was the player for me in this race now he's going up to 10f for the first time. He is a course winner over a mile, but even though he's been campaigned over 8f and has his sole win at that trip, he needs things to fall right for him to have a chance. He isn't a quick horse and lacks a turn of foot, and needed a decent gallop for him to run on strongly to be seen to best effect, which he hasn't been getting. On the two occasions he got an okay gallop he won and finished 2nd, which saw the winner go on to be placed and win on his last start. Ledger then ran at Southwell and ran a flat race, but even with the resurface of Southwell, I still believe it doesn't suit every horse and I thought his last two starts back at Newcastle were better than they look on paper.

The return to Newcastle was in Class 5 races, and they were slowly run affairs which I've already stated doesn't suit him, but he stayed on nicely to suggest that a step up in trip would benefit him, even though his pedigree doesn't suggest it. Considering he didn't get his races run to suit, I thought he ran with credit in a 0-70 full of better horses than today's race, and the form of both races looks solid enough for him to capitalise on this combination of drop-in class and upped in trip.

Oisin Orr is an eyecatching jockey booking given he has ridden this horse to his sole win and the runner-up run which followed. Oisin is 3/11 on the AW when teaming up with Lucinda Russell and is at a 19% SR on the turf/AW combined, with a further 9 places, recording a profit of +13.75 to level stakes.

Newcastle 5:00 – Pop Favorite 13/2 (1pt)

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out this is a shoddy race, but I did think that Pop Favorite can offer a revival of form now running back at Newcastle.

This horse has recorded 4 of his 5 victories at Newcastle, so the fact he ran well over shorter at venues he's not as good at shows he is in decent form, but now he's back at Newcastle he is dangerous to overlook. He was 2nd in October over today's C&D and the form of that race has worked out well. The winner has gone up 11lbs in the handicap, which saw him win on his next start and be runner-up on the run after that. The 4th was 2nd and then won on his next starts, and the 5th won on his next start, recording a +12 RPR to his rating.

This horse has won off 45 (40 with 5lb claimer), 49 and 51 (46 with 5lb claimer) so today's mark of 52 which is effectively 47 with Elisha Whittingdon taking off 5lbs puts him on a dangerous mark. Both Scott Dixon and Elisha have started 2024 strongly with two wins each so far and in this contest which doesn't look strong for the grade, this horse looks decent value, especially with punters likely to be firing into Reclaim Victory who ran an eyecatching race last time out, but the form hasn't been franked.

Newcastle 6:00 – Blackcurrent 6/1 (1pt)

We have nearly hit the bottom of the barrel for flat racing as we enter this 0-50 classified stakes race.

It sounds daft but I do think Blackcurrent has a great chance in this, and considering this type of racing isn't my cup of tea, that really does say something. Due to this being a classified race, all horses are running off the same weight no matter what rating they are, which sees my horse come out second best at the ratings, but with the 7lb claimer on board, this looks like a nice opportunity to get another win on the board for this 8yo.

this horse returns to Newcastle which is a big positive given that he has 6 wins at this course. He is likely to run from the front as that is his style, and if that is the plan then I think he could be tough to beat especially with a very capable 7lb claimer on board. The jockey booking is eyecatching as he is riding winners and George Boughey has been using him for recent winners, and yards from Newmarket like Boughey's yard, they don't waste their time putting claimers on board unless they are talented and worth the claim, and watching this lads races back, he looks a promising rider.

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