Friday’s Racing Tips – Tiger Tulip looks set to pounce at Sandown

Between Me And U got pipped inside the final furlong at Epsom to make it a blank day for Rizzel. Jason Hart did everything he could to steer the Michael Herrington horse home but the winner has been progressing nicely and managed to run our selection down in the final half furlong.

Red Mirage had to shoulder top weight and that might've been the undoing of his race. He travelled like he had a real chance of winning but his finishing kick wasn't anywhere near what the winner had, and congrats to Attacanter who stuck that one up at 10/1.

I'm still feeling a tad under the weather, but I've managed to perk myself up to do some work and add a selection to Rizzels other three. 

Cairnzy's Tips

Jonquil 11/10 – Doncaster 2.25

Not the most exciting of prices but I'm quietly confident about the chances of Jonquil in this contest, without having much to go on in terms of form.

Trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore, Jonquil showed all the signs on debut of being a potentially top notch operator. I did catch his debut live, but I wanted to refresh my memory, and honestly,  it looked even better the second time around.

Throughout the contest, Jonquil traveled smoothly, but encountered some trouble in running, being denied a clear path when attempting to mount his challenge. Additionally, in the final two furlongs, he was bumped by another horse as Ryan Moore tried to angle out for a run. Unflustered, Ryan Moore kept his cool as he normally does, and once Jonquil found a clear sight of the leader, he unleashed an impressive turn of foot to mow down the front-runner and win by a short head.

I've mentioned that I don't have a lot to go on in terms of form, but given a clear passage that day, I'm certain Jonquil wins by three to five lengths and he hit the line hard suggesting he had a lot more in the tank and will surely go further in due course. The remainder of this field has yet to show anything of the sort. It'll take an above-average performance to turn over Sir Michael Stoutes' youngster and that's before you even take into account the likely hood of further progression after only one career start.

Rizzel's Tips

Foreseen 25/1 EW three places – Chester 5.40

The big odds on Foreseen might be much shorter come the time of racing as I'd imagine not every horse will line up for this race due to Chester having heavy as their going description. Hopefully, there will be enough lining up for an each-way bet as the odds currently on Foreseen are large and I'd like to play it safer, with Bet365 offering enhanced placed terms of three places.

It's a strange runner for Adam West as it's not a track he has many runners at, but also because he is an ex-French trained horse who used to be owned by the powerful connections of Juddmonte. Based on his three runs to date, there are mixed feelings, but his run on debut which came on heavy ground stands out for today as the ground has the exact same description. The going in France can often be very wrong, but the times of the race from his debut run were extremely slow, and after watching the replay of that race they did go slow, but that was probably due to the testing ground and it did become a sprint which helped Foreseen as he was towards the front, but based on his second run, I think he is more of a stayer than a sprinter. On his last run in France, they went a much stronger gallop, but Foreseen was positioned towards the rear, 10L+ behind the leader turning for home. He got slightly hampered and seemed to be green as he was running around, but he did make up some ground in the final furlong, which makes me think the step-up in trip for today's race will be better suited for him.

The testing surface definitely looks to be what he wants as he has a very high knee action and hits the ground very hard, so I think he will relish today's conditions much better than most in this race.

Last time out on his stable debut he was weak in the market, but that was over 7f on the all-weather which I don't think would suit, as I've already alluded to with him not being the quickest. That was on the back of a decent layoff so he was entitled to have needed the run and I think it was a pipe opener for handicaps like today.

Tiger Tulip 7/2 – Sandown 2.35

Looking at how the early market moves have unfolded for this race, it seems like a well-known tipster has either tipped up Danger Alert or connections fancy their chances with the cheekpieces going on and the return to soft ground as his odds have plummeted. It is a slight concern, but it has meant that Tiger Tulip is a decent price and will probably continue to drift out, so it might be best to see what odds she is in the morning before backing.

In the career of Tiger Tulip prior to last time out, everything was pointing towards her being an all-weather horse, which wouldn't be a shock as she is related to horses who have excelled on the all-weather, but last time out she put in a career-best by quite a margin. She attempted to make the running and lead from start to finish at Windsor over 6f, which very nearly worked but she was pipped on the line by a well-fancied runner. Based on that, I think connections have made the correct decision by bringing her back in trip to 5f on a stiff track as she wasn't stopping over 6f, but she clearly didn't last it out as well as others at this level, so with one furlong left to travel in a race where she might be able to dictate it looks like a nice opportunity to get a win.

The ground is totally different to the good to firm from Windsor and she will have to prove that she handles cut in the ground. Her pedigree from the Sire's side would suggest she will be perfectly fine. Aclaim (the Sire) has produced a good percentage of soft ground horses. As a sire, he has a 14% SR with his progeny when they have run on soft ground, which is a very good SR, backed up by when he was racing and when he managed to win on soft ground on three occasions including a Group 1.

Heather Main does well at this track, and mainly with 3-year-olds. In the last five years with this age group, she has had 4/7 winners at the track, with a further two being placed in third, profiting the punters +46.50 to £1 level stakes.

Miss Alpilles 11/2 EW three places – Doncaster 4.10

There looks to be a lack of pace in this race, which might not suit a few of the runners in here as they seem strong stayers at the trip, so I thought Miss Alpilles was of interest under Jamie Spencer.

Miss Alpilles showed a much better level of form last time out than what she had shown from her previous four runs. That was her first attempt over the extended 11f, and in typical Jamie Spencer style, she was held up and delivered late, which I think suited her really well. Despite her only winning by 0.75L and being hit with a 9lb increase in the weights for a small margin victory, I thought she did it much easier than the margin suggested. She seems a quirky sort and that's why Jamie Spencer is the ideal jockey to ride her as he is the best in the business at switching horses off and maximising their energy efficiency and using it when they really need to.

She was niggled at the back for a split second to get back on the bridle, but after that she was cruising all over the field and then when Jamie asked her to pick up she did it down the outside and you could tell he didn't want her to hit the front too soon as she is still inexperienced and raw and chances are that she might've done very little when getting there. She seemed to handle Haydock nicely and I think Doncaster will also play to her strengths as it has a long straight for her to come with a late effort.

Ed Walker hasn't raced her since her win at the start of July and I think that has been by design. She ran well on debut over a shorter trip but didn't quite fire the time after. She could be a filly who is best seen when fresh, so the time away from the track isn't a concern.

Giavellotto was advised in the comments of yesterday's thread as an Ante-Post selection for the Irish St Leger which takes place at the Curragh on Sunday. This is being put in place in case any of you didn't see it and would want to follow. 3/1 advised with PaddyPower/Betfair, for those not having an account with those bookmakers he is 11/4 with Bet365 and shorter elsewhere.

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