Day three was tough for me, as I tried my arm at some horses at big prices on the Lucky 15 thread.
Cannes was always going to struggle from the position he found himself in. Dylan decided to pull back from the wide draw, whereas his stablemate took his time and slotted in nicely under Ryan Moore. If Cannes was positioned closer like Moore's horse, could it have been different, who knows.
Johanna Walsh nearly got the win, but was chased down very late into the race. I think she benefited from the loose horse, but did get inconvenienced by it at the same time. The loose horse caused carnage for those who tried to make an effort around the bend, but the same horse cut across inside the final couple of furlongs, which definitely didn't help.
Sun Goddess 5/4 (2pt) – Ascot 2.30 (Albany Stakes, Group 3)
It does pain me that I am going with such a short-priced favourite in a big field juvenile race at Royal Ascot, but I think the standard of this looks very poor.
Sun Goddess looks like the correct market favourite based on what we know. She ran well on debut, then followed it up with a good win at the Curragh. She was beaten by Carry The Flag on debut, who was a heavy odds-on favourite. That winner has since gone close to Great Barrier Reef, which won at this meeting earlier in the week.
The yard has won this in 2016, 2022 and 2024. She is drawn towards the stand's side, which still looks the place to be.
Venetian Sun (Antepost 2/1) – Commonwealth Cup (Friday, 15.05pm)
Based on what we've seen from the horses that are expected to lineup, I think Venetian Sun is as good a guarantee as you can get for a Royal Ascot race. She is a very quick filly who relished the return to sprinting last time out at Haydock, and on the back of that effort, I struggle to see which horse could beat her.
She was a very impressive horse last year in her juvenile campaign. They dared to be great and went for the 1000 Guineas, but she didn't see the trip out. They saw the light and reverted her to a sprinting trip, and she wiped the floor with a fairly useful field.
It shows how dominant she could be for years to come in the sprinting division, as the nearest horse in the antepost market is Albert Einstein, who is priced up at 10/1. You could also take the approach that the three-year-old sprinters are the greatest, and I think it's a mixture of Venetian Sun being dominant, and the rest being below average.
GambleAware