After a tricky start to the season on our EFL betting column, results have started moving in the right direction, with four of our last six bets winning. The improvement has been encouraging, and the focus now is on building that momentum through carefully selected opportunities rather than chasing results.
Saturday's League One and League Two fixtures provide several intriguing matchups, with some of the division's strongest recent performers facing opponents struggling to find consistency. Home and away records, xG figures and attacking and defensive trends all help identify where the most attractive opportunities might lie.
We have narrowed the weekend's card to three selections, each supported by a different combination of recent results and underlying performance.
Salford City v Exeter City
Salford City's remarkable run of results makes them an attractive proposition against Exeter City, although the visitors' recent defensive improvement means this is far from a straightforward assignment.
Salford have won nine of their last ten league matches, drawing the other, collecting 28 points from a possible 30. Their latest six fixtures have all ended in victory, producing 15 goals scored and five conceded.
Home performances provide particularly compelling evidence. Salford have won each of their five most recent matches at the Peninsula Stadium, beating Newport County 2-1, Port Vale 1-0, Swindon Town 1-0, Fleetwood Town 1-0 and Crawley Town 2-1. Every one of those victories finished with fewer than five goals.
Their underlying numbers are equally encouraging. Across those five home fixtures, Salford averaged 1.54 xG and just 0.59 xGA, demonstrating an ability to create opportunities while limiting opposition chances. Against Newport, they registered 31 shots, including 23 inside the box. Their victory over Swindon produced another 21 attempts, with 18 coming from inside the penalty area.
Exeter arrive in impressive overall form, having won four and drawn one of their last five matches, conceding just once. However, their away performances tell a different story. The visitors have won only one of six away league fixtures, scoring twice and failing to find the net four times. Their away xG averages 0.87, alongside just 1.67 shots on target per match.
Recent trips to Shrewsbury and Colchester produced a combined 1.71 xG, with Exeter registering only two shots on target across those matches. Salford's consistent home results, controlled scoring margins and Exeter's limited away attacking output make the home win combined with Under 4.5 goals an appealing selection.
- Best Bet: Salford City to Win & Under 4.5 Goals at 1/1 with Skybet
Mansfield Town v Notts County
Mansfield Town's improving results have been supported by consistently strong attacking performances, making their home meeting with Notts County one of Saturday's more interesting League One fixtures.
The Stags are unbeaten in their last six league matches, winning three and drawing three. Across those fixtures, they have scored 12 goals and conceded five, demonstrating a productive balance between attacking threat and defensive organisation.
Their recent five-match record is equally encouraging, with three victories, two draws and 12 goals scored. Mansfield's home performances provide the strongest argument. They have won three and drawn two of their five league fixtures at the One Call Stadium, scoring ten goals and conceding five.
The underlying attacking numbers are impressive. Mansfield average 1.98 xG, 18.20 shots and 14.20 shots inside the box per home match. Their open-play xG stands at 1.52, while they create an average of two big chances.
Those figures suggest their attacking output is built on sustained pressure rather than isolated opportunities.
Notts County's away record presents a sharp contrast. They have failed to win any of their five league matches on the road, drawing three and losing two. Their attacking performances have been particularly concerning, averaging only 0.82 xG, 0.53 open-play xG and 0.52 xGOT away from home.
Notts County generate just nine shots and 4.80 attempts inside the penalty area per away fixture, creating an average of 0.80 big chances. Defensively, they concede 1.79 xGA per away match and have failed to keep a clean sheet on their travels.
Mansfield have also won all three home fixtures against opponents positioned eighth or lower, scoring nine goals across those victories. With the hosts creating substantially more opportunities and Notts County struggling to generate attacking pressure away from home, Mansfield are well placed to extend their unbeaten run.
- Best Bet: Mansfield Town to Win at 17/20 with Unibet
Barnsley v Oxford United
Few League One teams approach Saturday's fixtures with a greater contrast in recent fortunes than Barnsley and Oxford United.
Oxford have established themselves among the division's strongest performers, collecting 21 points from their last ten league matches. Their record of six wins, three draws and one defeat has been accompanied by 17 goals scored and just eight conceded.
Their latest six matches have produced three victories and three draws, maintaining an unbeaten sequence while conceding only four goals.
Barnsley's results have moved firmly in the opposite direction. They have collected just one point from their last six league fixtures, losing five and conceding 13 goals. Their ten-match record is equally concerning, with only two victories and 20 goals conceded.
Home advantage has offered little protection. Barnsley have won once, drawn once and lost three of their five league fixtures on their own ground, conceding ten goals. Their defensive figures underline those difficulties, with an average home xGA of 1.92.
Oxford's away performances are considerably more encouraging. They have won three, drawn one and lost one of their five league matches on the road, scoring ten goals. Importantly, Oxford have found the net in every away fixture, scoring at least twice in three of those matches.
Their defensive numbers also deserve attention. Across three away matches unaffected by the exceptional circumstances of the Huddersfield and Mansfield fixtures, Oxford averaged just 0.58 open-play xGA. The defeat at Mansfield was complicated by two Oxford red cards, making that match a less reliable guide to their usual defensive performance.
Barnsley have also conceded in all five of their recent home fixtures, while Oxford have demonstrated considerably greater consistency at both ends of the pitch. With Oxford's strong away record contrasting sharply with Barnsley's prolonged struggles, the visitors are attractive in the Draw No Bet market.
- Best Bet: Oxford United Draw No Bet at 7/8 with Unibet
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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