BRAZIL v MEXICO
Live on ITV. Monday July 2, kick-off 3pm
The World Cup continues to deliver some brilliant drama and great football. I was delighted with the outcome in France v Argentina where France showed their class and the penalty bet came good while also giving us a winner on the first scorer too (Antonie Griezmann).
I’m sticking with that strategy for this match where Brazil are the strong favourites. I have to declare a real soft spot for Mexico but I need to put the emotion to one side and look for the value bets.
Mexico are notorious bottle merchants and despite qualifying for every World Cup since 1994 and getting out of the group each time they have not made the quarter-final stage in any of those six attempts. Even in their last match against Sweden they collapsed completely and were lucky to make it through to this stage.
I’m hoping they can galvanise themselves and play more like they did against Germany where they were well-organised and quick on the break. That could be particularly useful against Brazil.
The Brazilians have improved as the tournament has progressed but I’m still not convinced they are going to be the eventual tournament winners. In saying that I think they will get goals against this Mexican team and the value bet, in addition to the focus on potential penalty kicks being awarded, is to bet over 2.5 goals.
Carlos Vela is the usual penalty taker for Mexico he is decent value at 12-1 with Bet365. I will take him each way where you get paid at one third odds if he scores at anytime.
- Over 2.5 match goals (10-11, betfair)
- Carlos Vela ew (12-1, bet365)
- Brazil to be awarded a penalty (4-1, bet365)
- Neymar to score
- Neymar to be booked
- Over 2 goals in the match
- No red card in the match
- (16-1, bet365)