Austria and Jordan meet at Levi's Stadium on Wednesday morning in a match that guarantees a piece of World Cup history. These nations have never faced each other before and one of them will record their first ever World Cup victory by the end of the evening.
Austria arrive in California with genuine ambitions of reaching the knockout stages, while Jordan are making their tournament debut after completing the greatest achievement in the nation's football history. Ralf Rangnick's side are expected to take control of Group J's opening fixture, but Jordan have spent the past two years proving people wrong.
Austria's development under Rangnick has been one of the more impressive stories in European football. The former Manchester United manager inherited a talented squad lacking consistency and has transformed it into one of the continent's most organised and aggressive pressing sides. Austria topped their qualifying group, finishing ahead of Bosnia-Herzegovina and extending their unbeaten run to 13 matches in the process.
Their pressing numbers were particularly impressive. Austria recorded a PPDA figure of 7.1 during qualification, the lowest of any European nation, reflecting a side that suffocates opponents high up the pitch and forces mistakes in dangerous areas. They averaged 2.10 xG per game while conceding just 0.65 xG, highlighting their dominance at both ends of the field.
Those performances were no surprise after Euro 2024. Austria topped a group containing France and the Netherlands before eventually exiting in the quarter-finals. With David Alaba fit again to lead the defence and Marcel Sabitzer expected to shoulder more creative responsibility following Christoph Baumgartner's injury absence, Austria arrive in North America with a settled tactical identity and realistic expectations of progressing from the group.
Jordan's route to the tournament was remarkable. Jamal Sellami took charge in June 2024 and within little more than a year guided the nation to a first ever World Cup appearance. Jordan finished second in the final phase of Asian qualifying, ending above Iraq and Oman while scoring a national-record 32 goals along the way.
Qualification sparked celebrations across the country and cemented this squad's place in Jordanian football history. Expectations remain modest, but Jordan have already achieved more than any previous national team. The challenge now is whether they can remain competitive against opposition operating at a significantly higher level.
How the bookies view it
Austria are priced at 7/20, implying a 74.1% probability of victory. Jordan are available at 35/4, implying 10.3%, while the draw is 5/1, implying 16.7%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/6, implying a 60% probability. Both teams to score is available at 11/10, implying 47.6%.
Head to head: First meeting
This is the first ever meeting between Austria and Jordan.
Player to watch: Musa Al-Taamari constant threat
Musa Al-Taamari is Jordan's standout player and their biggest attacking threat heading into the tournament.
The Rennes winger was central to Jordan's historic qualification campaign, scoring seven goals and providing two assists across 13 appearances. No player in Sellami's squad carried a greater share of the attacking responsibility. Whether operating from the wing, in a central attacking role or leading counter-attacks, Al-Taamari consistently delivered Jordan's most dangerous moments.
Jordan are expected to spend long periods without possession against Austria, making transitions critical. That plays directly into Al-Taamari's strengths. His pace, dribbling ability and willingness to run at defenders give Jordan a genuine outlet whenever they recover the ball.
Austria's aggressive pressing game leaves space behind the defensive line at times and Al-Taamari is the player most capable of exploiting it. With Yazan Al-Naimat absent through injury, Jordan's hopes of causing an upset rest heavily on the shoulders of their star forward.
Predicted lineups
Austria 4-2-3-1: A. Schlager; Mwene, Lienhart, Alaba, Laimer; X. Schlager, Seiwald; Sabitzer, Gregoritsch, Schmid; Arnautovic.
Jordan 3-4-3: Abulaila; Nasib, Obaid, Yazan Al-Arab; Abu Taha, Al Rawabdeh, Al Rashdan, Haddad; Shehade Fakhoury, Musa Al-Taamari, Olwan.
Anything else catch the eye?
The biggest concern for Jordan is the standard of opposition they faced during qualification compared to what they will encounter here.
Across their 16 qualifying matches, Jordan's opponents carried an average FIFA ranking of 102nd and an average Elo rating of 1257. Remove the two fixtures against Pakistan, ranked 198th in the world, and the remaining opposition still averaged only around 88th in the FIFA rankings.
Austria sit 25th in the FIFA rankings and possess a live Elo rating of 1597. That represents a step up of around 340 Elo points compared to the average opponent Jordan faced on their route to North America.
The strongest sides Jordan encountered during qualification were South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Across six matches against those nations they recorded one win, two draws and three defeats, scoring four goals and conceding six.
Their pre-tournament friendlies offered further evidence of the challenge they face. Switzerland defeated Jordan 4-1 after creating significantly more chances, while Colombia secured a comfortable 2-0 victory in a match where Jordan generated only 0.40 xG. Those performances suggested Jordan remain competitive against regional opposition but struggle when confronted with elite-level teams.
The loss of Yazan Al-Naimat to a serious knee injury before the tournament is another setback. His absence places even greater responsibility on Al-Taamari, who contributed seven goals and two assists during qualification. Alongside Ali Olwan, he now carries much of Jordan's attacking burden against one of the most organised sides in European football.
Austria's underlying numbers strengthen the case for a comfortable victory. Rangnick's side averaged five shots on target per game during qualification while restricting opponents to just 1.4. Jordan, meanwhile, concede 1.44 xG per game despite facing considerably weaker opposition than Austria throughout qualification.
The tactical matchup also favours Austria. Their high press should force Jordan into repeated turnovers, while their superior technical quality is likely to generate sustained pressure throughout the contest. Jordan's defensive shape may keep the scoreline respectable for periods, but maintaining concentration for 90 minutes against this level of opposition is a difficult task.
Austria to win and over 2.5 goals stands out at 1/1. The quality gap between the sides is substantial, Austria create chances consistently and Jordan's defensive record against stronger opponents raises concerns. A controlled Austrian performance resulting in a 2-0 or 3-0 victory looks the most likely outcome.
GambleAware