The World Cup may have already started in North America, but that doesn't mean that it is too late to make your outright bets for the tournament. In fact, early results have seen some prices drift, which means now could be the optimal time to strike.
Our new World Cup betting model and simulator is also now live, which should help to guide smarter predictions and bets all summer long. Using this tool, we've picked out three markets that you should be of interest this summer and three that you should avoid.
World Cup best bets: Three tips based on our World Cup model
Spain to win the World Cup
Spain enters the tournament as the joint favourites to win it alongside France. They are priced at 9/2 to win their second-ever World Cup, an implied probability of 18.2%, but our model suggests that they actually have a 25.4% chance of winning the tournament.
Argentina to reach the final
As the reigning champions, there is plenty at stake for Argentina this summer, but they will fancy their chances of going back-to-back as the majority of their squad is the same as the one that left Qatar with the World Cup trophy. They are priced at 9/2 to just reach the final (18.2% probability), but our model has given them a 25.8% chance of being in New Jersey on 19 July.
Portugal to reach the semi-finals
Portugal, who many experts believe have the best midfield at the tournament, are best-priced at 2/1 to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup, which is an implied probability of 33.3%. However, our model states that they have a 35.6% chance of being in the final four
World Cup worst bets: Three bets to avoid
Brazil to win the World Cup
Brazil and the World Cup are a love story that stretches back nearly 100 years, but they are highly unlikely to win it this time around. The bookies currently have them at around 10/1 to win the tournament, which is understandably appealing. However, our model has only given them a 4.7% chance of earning their sixth star.
Netherlands to reach the final
The Netherlands showed flashes of promise during their opening game against Japan, but don't be lured in. They last reached the final in 2010, and they are priced at 15/2 (11.8%) to repeat that feat in North America. However, our model has given them just an 8.4% chance of making the final.
Croatia to reach the semi-finals
Croatia have made the semi-finals in each of the last two editions of the World Cup, but a third is highly unlikely. Their price of 9/1 with the bookies is tempting given their tournament experience, but our model is only giving them a 3.9% chance of reaching the final four.
Andy is tipster who has been calling Golf tournaments for several years across many different platforms. He has covered all tournaments from the Asian Tour to the Masters. He's also a keen football fan and is an expert on European football.
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