We continued a good start to the NFL season last week with a 3-1 record, the Patriots easily covering, Kyler Murray scoring at plus money and Myles Gaskin getting his 4 receptions. The loss was on the overs in the Cowboys v Chargers game which featured farcical refereeing, somehow finished way under despite the teams only punting once between them. A very strange game.
It means we're 5-2-1 on the season with a nice profit so far, let's keep that rolling me.
Week 3 of the NFL season
There's some great games this week with Chargers v Chiefs early, Bucs v Rams late on in a game which could be a decider for the #1 seed in the NFC and the 49ers v Packers closing out the night.
The spreads are really tough this week, you're best off getting on early in the week, but even they were tough for me this week, so I'll stick with an early lean which hasn't moved despite the news of the starting QB being unavailable for this one and plump for the Raiders to cover against the Dolphins.
The Raiders have been tough for me to call in recent years but it might be time to accept that Jon Gruden runs a well organised team and that Derek Carr might actually be quite a good QB.
They have beaten the Ravens and the Steelers so far, and looked pretty good doing it although I do think the Steelers may just be terrible, they lost a lot of defensive players which helped Vegas last week.
Carr is playing at a high level and spreading the ball around with Darren Waller the main target, one of the best tight ends in the league, but the TDs are going around the roster with a big priced scorer (one I usually look at) Foster Moreau finding the endzone for one of the scores last week. Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs look like they're stepping forward in year two and Hunter Renfrow helps keep the chains moving on slants.
It's more impressive given the lack fo run game there, it looks like Josh Jacobs will miss out again so Peyton Barber and Kenyan Drake will get the carries there.
It's an indictment of Tua Tagovailoa that him missing this game has actually reduced the spread from 4 to 3.5, he's not been great and they can't stop anyone getting to their QBs at the moment, that will hurt here against a good defensive line.
Best spread; Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 – 20/21 (365) or take the 8/11 for -3 if you want, I'll be recording 3.5 though.
Best Totals bet.
Week 3 of the season it usually makes sense to take the overs as the unders tend to rule in week 1 and 2 while offenses are getting up to speed. There's some very low and some very high this week and it's a real “studs and duds” fixture list.
I don't like backing overs on high totals (see Cowboys v Chargers last week for a reason why) but the Seahawks and Vikings defenses haven't been able to stop anyone and they've both been scoring well themselves.
Both Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson have Zero turnovers so far this season while being highly accurate and moving the ball well. They both have elite duos leading their pass catching groups with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the Seahawks side and Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen on the Vikings side of things, I can see a few scores spread amongst them.
My one caveat would be that Dalvin Cook look like he'll either miss out of “be severely limited” which hurts the ground game for the Vikings, Alexander Mattison is OK, but he's not Cook.
I'm still taking the Over despite that.
Best total; Seahawks @ Vikings OVER 54.5
Best TD scorer prop.
As always narrowing down my selections is the toughest choice here. I've got a few at slightly higher prices this week and it's trying to figure out the most sensible pick to keep my run on here going, and make money obviously.
The prices on the Chiefs v Chargers and Bucs v Rams are poor so I'll be avoiding them, although Gronk isn't a terrible bet with 4 TDs so far this year for the Bucs. I like Latavius Murray to continue his streak for the Ravens at 9/5 (Hills), although it could be Ty'son Williams or Lamar Jackson which makes it a little riskier.
For this column, I'll plump for Justin Jefferson for the Vikings. He scored all 8 of his TDs last season in Minnesota and with a lack of challenge for targets from tight ends, he should have a good chance of finding the endzone in an expected high-scoring game against a relatively poor Seahawks defense. It is true that Thielen tends to get the TDs while Jeff gets the yards, but his home record has swayed me to take him at plus money to find the endzone.
Best TD prop; Justin Jefferson – 6/5 (Skybet)
Best player prop.
Jefferson was in consideration for this as well but his line has ticked over 80 yards now and that's above the limit I would have liked. I wanted to have a piece of Najee Harris unders on his rushing yards as the Steelers offensive line and offense as a whole has been terrible so far, but with injuries to their QB and in their WR group I think they might give him more carries than he's had so far and 67.5 is low for a running back.
I looked at Myles Gaskin again, he's at 3.5 once more, and his teammate Mike Gesicki caught 3 of 6 targets last week is set at plus money on 2.5 receptions again, which is very tempting.
Pass-catching RBs seem to be my bread-and-butter though and it's the Denver game I like the look of, there's one on either side of the ball who is tempting, either Melvin Gordon at 12.5 receiving yards, or Micheal Carter at 10.5.
For the record on here, I'll take Michael Carter going over his very low line. It seems likely the Jets will be trailing again and they've ruled out Tevin Coleman who had been getting snaps. He is sharing snaps with Ty Johnson but it's Carter who gets the receptions with 1 for 14 in game one and 2 for 29 in game two. It should take one catch to top his line and I think they'll try and rein in Wilson after last weeks 4 INT game.
Best prop; Michael Carter o10.5 receiving yards – 20/23 (365)