IN my first two posts, I would say perhaps I was a bit too keen to get motoring before the leagues I’m writing about have got properly bedded in but you will start seeing some of the value of this research soon enough.
I’m hopeful today will not be a holiday for your bank but a busier day for depositing than I may have offered in my previous two posts!
O = Over 2.5 goals in any game. U = Under 2.5 goals in any game.
Egypt Premier League: El Zamalek v Nogoom Mostakbal (7pm)
El Zamalek Home 2017-18
P17 O11 U6 F23 A17 Avg GPG 2.4
An unusually high GPG ratio. I won’t go into the scoring and conceding records to quite the same extent as I have in the Argentina game here. What I want to note is how much of the goals per game record is contributed to by the away sides. So, against a team with not much bite, we need to see Zamalek scoring 3 to lose an Unders bet. Their average goals for is 1.35, so, they would need to go for it in a way we don’t often see.
I note this, because today’s opponents are Nogoom, newly promoted from the Egyptian second tier, having won the B group – three winning teams go up from second tier leagues A, B & C. (Note their manager is Mohamed Salah but I don’t think it’s the same guy).
They played 28 games to get promotion last season, scoring 32 and conceding 16. Not big scorers against lesser opposition and fairly tight at the back. They’ve played 3 games in this new league, two at home and one away. Their goals record is P3 F0 A2. So, it’s fair to say they’re keeping it tight in this first foray into the big time.
We can look at the opposition they’ve played and compare to Zamalek in terms of scoring.
Their only away has been against Smouha who were better at home than Zamalek last season, scoring 23 and conceding 13 (third best in the league compared to Zamalek’s seventh). Same goals scored and slightly fewer conceded.
That game ended 0-0. That’s interesting. In a lot of these leagues, teams come up and their first instinct is park-the-bus/self-protection. So, I don’t see Nogoom coming much out of their shell to score and I don’t see El Zamalek going on a goal blitz if it looks like the game may be won. That is the sensibility most of these games follow.
Argentina Primera C: Club Lujan v Sport Barracas (7.30pm)
Club Lujan Home 2017-18
P19 O6 U13 F23 A11 Avg GPG 1.9
Regular season, their last six home games all went under.
In those 19 home games they were dangerous, though. They scored 4 goals once, 2 goals 7 times, 1 goal 5 times and failed to score 6 times. Avg goals scored per game 1.21. Fortunately, they were very tight at the back. They conceded 2 on only 2 occasions, and their other games involved conceding 1 goal 7 times and 10 clean sheets. Avg goals conceded per game 0.58.
Sport Barracas Away 2017-18
P19 O6 U13 F12 A28 Avg GPG 2.1
Regular season, seven of their last eight aways went under.
Their scoring record is not a worry. In the 19 aways, they scored 2 goals twice, 1 goal 8 times, and failed to net 9 times. Ideal for us. Avg goals per game scored 0.63. At the back, though, slightly worrying is, they conceded 4 goals twice, 3 goals once, 2 goals 5 times, 1 goal 7 times and only kept 4 clean sheets. Avg goals conceded per game 1.47.
Now get this. Last season’s head to head was a 1-0 away win to Barracas! Season before was 2-2 and season before that was 1-1.
Less predictable, but I think the offer of 3/5 (bet365) on U2.5 is pretty decent.
Best of luck this bank holiday, everybody, whatever you’re on!
- El Zamalek v Nogoom Mostakbal
- Club Lujan v Sport Barracas
- Under 2.5 goals double (9-5, bet365)