DISAPPOINTED one of the Argentinian games let us down on Monday by being exciting and thrilling and producing three goals before half-time, while the other one did everything we did want in offering a textbook one shot on target in 90 minutes, but let’s look to pick two games this time that both do what we want this Friday afternoon in Iran.

It’s the Persian Gulf Pro League and we’re four games into the new season, and it’s exciting as heck, which may well explain why Heck is not a well-known holiday destination.

As we’re only four games in our key stats will have to come from last season.

Those stats tell us the Gulf Pro 2017-18 was 38% over 2.5 goals and 62% under 2.5 goals. We start to get interested wherever unders is over 60% of results.

For comparison, last season’s Erste Divisie in Holland was 66% over 2.5 goals and 34% under 2.5 goals so fairly comparable. I mention this to give you doubters who love overs an idea we’re looking at similar-ish hit rates here for unders.

Anyway, as I said, except where stated, all stats are from season 17-18 (ended May).

Sepahan v Tractor Sazi KO 4.30pm

  • Sepahan Home 2017-18
  • P15  O4  U11  F17  A11  Avg GPG 1.9

Their last five homes last season went under.  Meanwhile, they’ve played two so far at home this season, in which they’ve scored nil and they’ve conceded nil.

(Sepahan fans are right now at home looking at their season tickets saying whatever the Farsee is for “Oh boy, I cannot wait!”)

  • Tractor Sazi  Away 2017-18
  • P15 O5  U10  F11  A18  Avg GPG 1.9

Six of their last seven home and away went under last season, including their last two aways.  Their two aways this season have been a goalless draw and a 3-0 defeat to Esteghlal.  That’s a big defeat but Esteghlal were last season’s best and highest-scoring home team in this league with 29 goals. Whereas Sepahan only scored 17 at home last season – but you already knew that.

Sepahan scored 2 or more goals in 4 of their 15 home games last season, and conceded 2 or more goals in 2. Meaning in 11 of 15 home games, they scored 1 or 0 goals, and, in 13 of 15 home games, they conceded 1 or 0 goals.

Tractor scored 2 or more goals in 3 of their 15 away games last season, and conceded 2 or more goals in 5. Meaning in 12 of 15 away games, they scored 1 or 0 goals, and, in 10 of 15 away games they conceded 1 or 0 goals.

One note of caution: head to head last season was 3-0 to Sepahan.  Prior two seasons were under though.

Saipa Karadj v Pars Janoubi Jam  4.45pm

  • Saipa Home 2017-18
  • P15  O4  U11  F23  A15  Avg GPG 2.5

Saipa scored 2 or more goals in 5 of their 15 home games last season, and conceded 2 or more goals in 6. Meaning in 10 of 15 home games, they scored 1 or 0 goals, and, in 9 of 15 away games, they conceded 1 or 0 goals.

  • Pars Janoubi Jam Away 2017-18
  • P15  O4  U11  F17  A14  Avg GPG 2.1

Pars Janoubi Jam scored 2 or more goals in 3 of their 15 away games last season, and conceded 2 or more goals in 1. Meaning in 12 of 15 away games, they scored 1 or 0 goals, and, in 14 of 15 away games they conceded 1 or 0 goals.

Head to head last season was 1-1. No H2H data from prior to that.

Saipa are – for this league – dangerously high scorers and conceders and I’m clearly relying here on the low-scoring/low-conceding record of Pars Janoubi Jam.  Given I’m a Hibs fan from Kirkcaldy, any combination of Jambos and Pars should probably be ringing every alarm bell in earshot.

Recommended Bets

24th September Iran: Persian Gulf Pro League – Under 2.5 Goals double

  • Sepahan v Tractor Sazi U2.5 @ 1/2 (bet365) x
  • Saipa Karadj v Pars Janoubi Jam U2.5 @ 1/2 (bet365)
  • Pays at 2.25  (or 5/4 for the old school)!

Good luck today, everybody, whatever you’re on.

1 Comment
  1. Author
    theuht 2 months ago

    Nice untroubled 1-0 in the game I was worried about. The other game ends 2-2, and we are ruined by goals in minutes 73, 88 and 90. The goal in the 73rd minute is scored by Anthony Stokes. I’m a Hibs fan, as I said. If I had realised he was Tractor’s key striking threat, I’d have put my house on this.

    However, it’s the long haul – and I will convince you in the long-term!

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