WE'RE back in Brazil tonight, and it’s time for us to see some serious Serie B inaction.
That’s right, ladies and gents! Serie B again! The same Serie B where, last time out, you’ll remember we picked a 3-3 draw between Paysandu and Juventude for Under 2.5 goals. (You see how I’m implicating you just for reading this – like it was in some way your fault just as much as mine.)
For those of you who prefer just to gloat, incidentally, only one game all season in this league has scored a higher matchgoal aggregate – a 4-3 away win for Figueirense in gameweek 10 – and only two other games – another 3-3 and a 5-1 – have equalled it.
We are currently in gameweek 25 and 241 matches have been played. You’ve no idea how smart I feel coming on here and picking a game that ended in the top 4 of goals scored out of 241 games played all season and identifying it before a ball was kicked as a golden opportunity for betting on Under 2.5 goals.
Does that make me a numpty? Possibly, though not as much as the bruise on my knuckles from punching the wall.
However, let’s see if I can’t convince you tonight!
Avai v CRB KO 11.15pm
Avai
- Home Record is 15th of 20 for Overs
- P12 O3 U9 Avg GPG 1.9
- Their last six homes have featured four 1-0 or 0-1 and two 0-0. You want the good news? The home game prior to that was the other 3-3 this league has seen this season! But I prefer the form of the last six homes to that aberration.
CRB
- Away Record is 18th of 20 for Overs
- P12 O3 U9 Avg GPG 1.7
- Their last five aways have been two 1-0 defeats, a 1-0 win and two 0-0.
H2H
Last H2H with Avai home was two seasons ago 2-1. They have played this season at CRB. It was 4-0 to CRB. However, here’s my mantra: we’re only really interested in the home record of the home side and the away record of the away side. And not much in the way of history beyond a season ago.
- Under 2.5 goals is 4/6
Coritiba v Boa KO 11.15pm
Coritiba
- Home Record is 19th of 20 for Overs
- P11 O2 U9 Avg GPG 1.6
- Eight of their last nine homes have been under. In those nine games, they’re F9 A5. Their last three homes have been under with two at 0-0 and one 0-2 defeat.
Boa
- Away Record is 20th of 20 for Overs
- P12 O2 U10 Avg GPG 1.8
- Seven of their last eight aways have been under. Last time out away was 0-0. Previous away game was over.
H2H
No H2H in recent times with Coritiba home. Reverse fixture was 1-1 in May.
- Under 2.5 is 4/9
Recommended Bet
4th Sep Brazil, Serie B 11.15pm
- Avai v CRB
- Coritiba v Boa
- Under 2.5 goals double (4/3 bet365)
In December 2020 we sadly 
UHT
These are statistically the best league’s for under 2.5 goal bets.
MP=matches played
SPAIN SEGUNDA
Mp 35
80%
ALBANIA SUPER LIGA
MP 15
80%
FRENCH NATIONAL
MP 44
75%
SERBIA DIV 2
Mp 40
73%
BELARUS
Mp 157
70%
FRENCH DIV 2
Mp 59
69.5%
LITHUANIA LIGA 1
Mp 53
67.9%
BRAZIL SERIE B HAS
MP 241
62.66%
Which is high taking into account the amount of games played so you were unlucky with coritiba today.
As stats prove french footy is overall the best for unders betting.
Cheers, Elvis. Very much appreciate the thinking and engagement behind these replies. As it happens I am aware of a few of those leagues though Serbia 2 is definitely new to my radar! However, I’m very familiar with Spain’s Segunda 2.
Before I took a little break from posting on here a short while ago to write the novel I’ve always had in me – all about Mrs UHT taking a turn at breaking my heart – this was long before Coritiba did the same thing by knocking in a winner on Monday – one of the last bets I put up at that time a was an Unders treble in the Spanish Segunda.
On that occasion, my ship came in with a winning treble, but it’s still early on for those Spanish leagues, and the reason I’m doing the leagues I’m looking at so far is they’re halfway through the season and they suit the window I have free to write them up and post in ample time.
The main leagues I love are the Argentina minor leagues, which have also just started again, but I got caught out early with thinking I could just use last season’s form as I know these teams pretty well.
That was a mistake.
Anyway, Mr P, I like the fact you’re seriously engaging with the Unders. I know you said you’re a goal hunter, but your every instinct is also saying: so, we know over 2.5 goals can be predicted by heavy scoring/conceding sides playing in heavy scoring leagues but wait a minute… doesn’t it also therefore follow that in low-scoring leagues…?
And yes, it does.
Don’t get me wrong. I also love an Overs goals bet – and WDW – but, given the time I have, I thought it would be fun to show there’s also an alternative related option that everybody can get involved in that can be just as rewarding.
It’s frustrating that people who hate Unders are only having their worst suspicions confirmed by my complete failure so far to pick the many games that have been obliging, but I would hope most people can see the advice has been thoroughly researched. I’m not winging it – these are the games we could have reasonably expected to go our way.
After that, you need a bit of luck – which you do usually get!
I won’t keep posting if it keeps up like this, and I’m sure Mr F or the team would have a quiet word before too long, but I am only doing what I know are all the right things meantime. And, absolutely, the leagues where not many goals get scored are where the Unders are to be found!
Best to you meantime – will definitely put something up this weekend.
Just checked results.
Close but no ‘rolled up brown leaves’ as they say.
Take the dice …..and roll again.
Cheers
Cheers drogers! Yes, two early goals at Coritiba meant a third in the second half downed it all. Avai sailed in 1-0. I very much appreciate this get up and go again thing you did here, though – all support always gratefully received! Love the labradog, too!