WE'RE back in Brazil tonight, and it’s time for us to see some serious Serie B inaction.
That’s right, ladies and gents! Serie B again! The same Serie B where, last time out, you’ll remember we picked a 3-3 draw between Paysandu and Juventude for Under 2.5 goals. (You see how I’m implicating you just for reading this – like it was in some way your fault just as much as mine.)
For those of you who prefer just to gloat, incidentally, only one game all season in this league has scored a higher matchgoal aggregate – a 4-3 away win for Figueirense in gameweek 10 – and only two other games – another 3-3 and a 5-1 – have equalled it.
We are currently in gameweek 25 and 241 matches have been played. You’ve no idea how smart I feel coming on here and picking a game that ended in the top 4 of goals scored out of 241 games played all season and identifying it before a ball was kicked as a golden opportunity for betting on Under 2.5 goals.
Does that make me a numpty? Possibly, though not as much as the bruise on my knuckles from punching the wall.
However, let’s see if I can’t convince you tonight!
Avai v CRB KO 11.15pm
- Home Record is 15th of 20 for Overs
- P12 O3 U9 Avg GPG 1.9
- Their last six homes have featured four 1-0 or 0-1 and two 0-0. You want the good news? The home game prior to that was the other 3-3 this league has seen this season! But I prefer the form of the last six homes to that aberration.
- Away Record is 18th of 20 for Overs
- P12 O3 U9 Avg GPG 1.7
- Their last five aways have been two 1-0 defeats, a 1-0 win and two 0-0.
Last H2H with Avai home was two seasons ago 2-1. They have played this season at CRB. It was 4-0 to CRB. However, here’s my mantra: we’re only really interested in the home record of the home side and the away record of the away side. And not much in the way of history beyond a season ago.
- Under 2.5 goals is 4/6
Coritiba v Boa KO 11.15pm
- Home Record is 19th of 20 for Overs
- P11 O2 U9 Avg GPG 1.6
- Eight of their last nine homes have been under. In those nine games, they’re F9 A5. Their last three homes have been under with two at 0-0 and one 0-2 defeat.
- Away Record is 20th of 20 for Overs
- P12 O2 U10 Avg GPG 1.8
- Seven of their last eight aways have been under. Last time out away was 0-0. Previous away game was over.
No H2H in recent times with Coritiba home. Reverse fixture was 1-1 in May.
- Under 2.5 is 4/9
4th Sep Brazil, Serie B 11.15pm
- Avai v CRB
- Coritiba v Boa
- Under 2.5 goals double (4/3 bet365)