We already see a number of bookmakers offering punters some great prizes for correctly guessing six scores in upcoming Premier League games.
With that in mind, we have decided to take up the Super 6 Challenge.
Here are this week's selections.
Our Super 6 Challenge predictions
Man City vs Leeds
Manchester City approach this fixture with strong home efficiency. They have scored 16 goals at home, winning five straight after the Tottenham loss, hitting three, five, two, three and three. Their last eight place them third for xG, third for xPTS, fourth for open-play xG ratio and second for touches-in-box total.
They average 10.3 shots-in-box per match across that sample and sit sixth for big-chance creation. Their last four home games show 1.64 npxG, only 0.84 npxGA and 11.0 shots-in-box per game. Their opponents have collected cards in five of six recent matches, including counts of four, three, two, two and four.
Leeds bring mixed underlying data. Their last eight show 1.38 xG and 1.36 xGA, placing them mid-table. They sit 11th for npxG, 11th for npxG ratio and have created seven big chances across the sample. Their away record is the clear concern: 15th conceded across six, no clean sheets and four matches with at least two conceded.
They give up high shots-in-box numbers at 7.0 per match and allow strong set-piece threat. They also carry a consistent card record with two, two, one, one, one and one in away fixtures.
City hold clear offensive advantages across all data points.
- Score 3-1 at 9/1 with Skybet
Sunderland vs Bournemouth
Sunderland enter with a negative last-eight profile. They record 1.06 xG, 1.72 xGA, and a low xG ratio of 0.38, producing one of the weakest defensive metrics in the division.
They allow 8.9 shots-in-box and 27.9 touches-in-box per match across the last eight, ranking 18th and 19th. They have failed to score in two home matches and their last four show 0.98 xG and 2.02 xGA. They produce only 3.9 big chances across the eight-game sample. Form is also mixed with only eight points from five.
Bournemouth bring stronger attacking numbers. Their last eight show 1.27 xG, 1.53 xGA, and more balanced shot profiles. They deliver 5.8 shots-in-box for and generate higher final-third activity. They also hold the stronger big-chance output across the last four and last eight windows. Away metrics show high concession at 2.28 xGA but also strong shot volume with 7.3 shots-in-box generated. Their last five league games show eight goals scored.
Both teams carry defensive weaknesses. Sunderland have allowed nine, nine, eight and 10 shots-in-box in recent games. Bournemouth allow similar numbers and concede high big-chance totals. That creates an open structure with repeat penalty-box activity.
- Score 1-2 at 8/1 with Skybet
Everton vs Newcastle
Everton approach this fixture with mid-table underlying returns. Their last eight show 1.04 xG, 1.38 xGA and negative shot supremacy. They have kept two clean sheets in the last four but allow high shots-in-box at ten per match.
Their home numbers are steadier with 1.11 npxG, 0.82 npxGA, and strong shot suppression. Their set-piece profile is neutral. They have taken seven points from the last five matches.
Newcastle hold stronger attacking signals despite mixed results. Their last eight show 1.20 xG and 1.57 xGA, but they deliver higher shot volumes and strong away defensive numbers in the latest sample. Their last four away show 1.67 xGA and have conceded eight goals, with opponents creating only 5.75 shots-on-target per match. They rank mid-table for big-chance creation.
Everton allow heavy box entries while Newcastle generate consistent wide-area supply and average eight shots-in-box in several recent matches. Everton’s transition shape gives up space, which suits Newcastle’s vertical patterns. Over the last for games only Burnley have generated less xPTS than Newcastle.
- Score 2-1 at 17/2 with Skybet
Spurs vs Fulham
Tottenham’s underlying data trends downward across the last eight. They record 1.12 xG, 1.54 xGA and negative open-play numbers. They sit 17th for xG ratio, 18th for big-chance ratio and 17th for shots-in-box ratio.
They generate only 4.8 shots-in-box and allow 6.5. Recent home matches show 1.28 npxG, 1.17 npxGA with stable shot volume but low chance quality. Their last five league games yield only four points.
Fulham arrive with stronger outputs. Their last eight show 1.26 xG, 1.08 xGA with a positive ratio. They sit fifth for shots-in-box ratio, eighth for open-play xG ratio and mid-table for touches-in-box. They have scored in eight of 12th league matches.
Their last four away games show only 0.78 xG but they often create high box entries and deliver solid counterattacking phases. They also produce strong set-piece threat with 6.0 set-piece xG across eight.
Defensively Spurs allow high transition space and sit low in both big-chance prevention and shots-in-box suppression. Fulham produce better rhythm in recent matches and generate enough box activity to threaten.
- Score 1-1 at 11/2 with Skybet
West Ham vs Liverpool
West Ham bring improved attacking data. They have scored at least two in the last three league matches and carry strong box entries. Their last eight show 1.12 xG, 2.06 xGA, with 11.0 shots-in-box conceded but steady output at 5.3. They have scored in 13of the last 19 home matches. Recent form shows seven points from five.
Liverpool arrive in their worst run for man y years. Their last 12 in all competitions show three wins and nine defeats. They have kept two clean sheets across that run and only three across 12 league games.
They have lost six of the last seven. In the last seven they have conceded more big chances than Fulham, Brentford, Spurs and Forest, and only one fewer than Wolves. Their last four show 1.33 xG, 1.14 xGA with high shots-against numbers. They have let in three goals in each of the last two league matches.
Liverpool still generate strong shots-in-box at 7.8 but the defensive collapse has undermined results. West Ham can exploit this with their improved forward activity.
- Score 2-2 at 11/1 with Skybet
Chelsea vs Arsenal
Chelsea enter as one of the league’s form sides. Their last eight show 1.49 xG, 1.27 xGA, strong open-play ratios and high penalty-box volume with 22.4 touches-in-box. They sit fifth for xG ratio, third for open-play supremacy and fifth for shots-in-box ratio. They have 15 points over the last eight and 12 points from the last five.
Arsenal hold the league’s standout metrics. They lead the division in last-eight xG, npxG, open-play xG, shots-in-box, touches-in-box and big-chance ratios. Their last eight show 2.30 xG, only 0.60 xGA and a supremacy of 1.70. They also top xPTS at 20.31. Their last four show 2.34 xG, 0.40 xGA, nine shots-in-box and elite defensive control. They have scored 11 and conceded three across the last five league matches.
Chelsea offer strong chance creation but concede high transitional space. Arsenal’s structure and top-tier defensive control remain decisive in these matchups.
Score 1-2 at 15/2 with Skybet
The total odds for all six games are a massive 566,864/1 with Skybet, which may be worth a £1 stake for some fun, I am keen to back both Bournemouth and Everton to win 2-1. Combining these two games combined gives you odds of 85/1 with Skybet.
Further Reading
- Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction and Betting Tips
- Aston Villa vs Wolves Prediction and Betting Tips
- West Ham Utd vs Liverpool Prediction and Betting Tips
- Non-League Betting Tips: Get to Moss Lane for goals
- EFL Betting Tips: More goals at the CBS
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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