West Ham face Liverpool in the Premier League at the London Stadium on Sunday. Both sides arrive with contrasting momentum and growing pressure, shaped by recent results, chance creation trends and defensive output.
West Ham sit in the lower half of the table but show improvement in their attacking numbers. They have scored two or more goals in their last three league matches and have a reliable home scoring profile, finding the net in 13 of their last 19 matches at the London Stadium.
Their recent last-eight data shows an xG of 1.12 and an xGA of 2.06, with a total xG line of 3.18. They generate 5.3 shots inside the box and eleven shots against, highlighting volatility but also clear routes to chances.
Liverpool arrive in their weakest run in a number of years. Across their last twelve matches in all competitions the record stands at W3-D0-L9 with two clean sheets. In the league they have lost six of their last seven and kept three clean sheets in 12.
Their last two league outings ended in 3-0 defeats against Nottingham Forest and Manchester City. Defensive metrics underline this decline. Across their last seven league games they have conceded more big chances than Fulham, Brentford, Spurs and Forest, and only one fewer than Wolves. Their last-eight Premier League numbers show an xGA of 1.51, nine big chances conceded and 7.9 shots inside the box allowed.
Both squads also face strain from rotation demands. West Ham’s defensive line remains inconsistent, while Liverpool struggle for stability in midfield and have shifted shape several times across recent fixtures. The combination of West Ham’s improving attack, Liverpool’s defensive slide and both teams’ high concession profile sets a clear backdrop for a volatile fixture at the London Stadium.
How the bookies view it: Liverpool favourites despite run of form
West Ham are 340/100 with a 23% implied chance. The draw is 10/3 at 22%. Liverpool are 4/5 at 55%, placing them as the market favourite.
The goal markets indicate a high-scoring profile. Over 2.5 goals is 11/20 at 65%. Both teams to core is 6/11 at 65%. Both lines match Liverpool’s recent defensive record and West Ham’s scoring output at home.
Head to Head: Visitors hold strong record
Liverpool have dominated this fixture for an extended period. Over the last 20 meetings, they have recorded 16 wins, three draws, and one defeat, scoring 57 goals and conceding 19. West Ham’s average goal difference sits at -1.90. The Hammers have scored an average of 0.95 but concede 2.85.
Recent Premier League results follow the same pattern. Liverpool won 2-1 in April 2025, delivered a 5-0 away win in December 2024 and produced a 5-1 League Cup victory earlier that season. They also claimed wins in April 2023, October 2022 and September 2023. West Ham’s last success was a 3-2 home win in November 2021.
Players to watch: Wilson main threat for Hammers
Callum Wilson’s output under Nuno Espirito Santo points to strong shooting reliability ahead of Liverpool’s visit. Since returning to the starting XI he has delivered one, one, one and two shots on target across four straight starts.
His season total sits at nine shots on target in only 420 minutes, giving him West Ham’s highest SOT rate across this stretch. He has taken 13 shots under Nuno and continues to receive central service from Jarrod Bowen, Luis Guilherme and Malick El Hadji Diouf in the 3-4-3 structure.
His goals against Nottingham Forest, Burnley and Bournemouth show sharp movement and quick finishing. Liverpool’s current form increases the opportunity. They have lost six of their last seven league matches, conceded three goals in each of their last two, and kept only three clean sheets in 12. Their last 12 in all competitions show nine defeats and only two clean sheets. Wilson over 0.5 SOT is the angle.
Predicted line-ups
West Ham United (3-4-3): Areola, Kilman, Julio, Todibo, Wan-Bissaka, Potts, Fernandes, Diouf, Bowen, Wilson, Guilherme.
Liverpool (4-3-3): Alisson, Szoboszlai, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Jones, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Isak, Gakpo.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score and both teams carded profile strongly for this matchup. West Ham arrive with a clear attacking rhythm at home. They have scored in 13 of their last 19 home league games and enter this fixture after hitting two or more in their last three Premier League matches.
Their recent home stretch includes goal totals driven by steady shots, reliable final-third entries and a consistent ability to force defensive pressure.
Liverpool’s current defensive slide strengthens the both teams to score angle. They have lost six of their last seven league games and conceded three in each of the last two. Only two clean sheets have been recorded across their last 12 matches in all competitions.
Defensive volume is an issue. Across their last seven league fixtures they have faced more big chances than Fulham, Brentford, Spurs and Forest, and only Wolves have allowed more. Their away sequence in the league has also lacked resistance, with repeated concession patterns across a range of opponents.
The cards angle strengthens further under the appointment of Darren England. His profile shows high booking output across repeated metrics.
Both teams have been carded in 100% of his matches, with match totals regularly clearing key thresholds. His games hit over 2.5 cards in 71%, over 3.5 in 71% and over 4.5 in 57%, producing an average of 4.14 cards. That level of consistency raises the baseline for discipline outcomes and fits the expected tempo of this fixture.
West Ham’s home matches generate repeated defensive interventions in transition, and Liverpool’s current run includes rising foul counts as structure breaks under pressure. England’s record indicates a tight threshold for contact and early management of duels, which supports a booking for each side.
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