In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Southampton vs Brighton
Tariq Lamptey has been a regular presence in Brighton’s starting lineup this season, featuring in seven games. Despite his defensive role, he has been actively involved in attacking play, registering six shots in total and managing at least one attempt in six of his seven starts, including each of his last six appearances.
With Pervis Estupinan sidelined due to injury, Lamptey is expected to continue at wing-back, a position that allows him to push forward and contribute offensively.
Brighton face a Southampton side that has been highly vulnerable defensively. The Saints concede an average of 18.0 shots per game—rising to 19.0 per game at home, the highest in the Premier League. Brighton, on the other hand, average 12.08 shots per game away from home, a figure higher than both Arsenal and Nottingham Forest.
Southampton also rank worst in the league for shots on target conceded, xGA, and total goals conceded, highlighting their defensive frailties. With Brighton likely to see plenty of attacking opportunities, Lamptey should have chances to get forward and test the Southampton defence once again.
- Best Bet: Tariq Lamptey over 0.5 shots at 1.91 with SpreadEx
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Chelsea have been struggling for form, winning just two of their last nine matches and failing to secure a victory in their last five away games. Their away record has been inconsistent, with only three wins in their last 10—coming against Spurs, Southampton, and Leicester. Defensively, they have been vulnerable, managing just one clean sheet in their last 10 away matches.
Recently, teams have found it easy to test Chelsea’s goalkeeper, with Brighton, Man City, Crystal Palace, and Ipswich all recording at least five shots on target against them. The only side to register fewer than four shots on target at home against Chelsea was Leicester. Over the last eight games, Chelsea have been among the worst six teams in the league for big chances conceded. On the road, they allow an average of 4.93 shots on target per match, which increases to 5.75 against top-half opposition.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have been solid at home, losing just once all season at Villa Park (W6-D7-L1) and only failing to score in two home matches. They average 1.64 goals per game at home and have shown attacking intent in recent fixtures. Against Liverpool, they managed four shots on target, one more than the league leaders, while against Ipswich, they registered 25 shots and six on target. Their home performances have been consistently dangerous, averaging 5.21 shots on target per match.
Morgan Rogers has been a key attacking presence for Villa, registering 43 shots and 13 shots on target in his 25 starts. At home, he has recorded eight shots on target from 13 games, with a total of 28 attempts. Given Chelsea’s defensive struggles and Villa’s attacking numbers, the home side should find plenty of opportunities to test the Blues’ backline.
- Best Bet: Morgan Rogers over 0.5 shots on target at 1.98 with Unibet
Bournemouth vs Wolves
Dango Ouattara has been heavily involved in Bournemouth’s attacking since he came into the side to play up top due injuries. Over the season, he has registered 41 shots and 15 on target across 22 appearances. His numbers are particularly strong at home, where he has taken 26 shots in 10 matches. When starting, his output increases, with 30 shots in 13 starts, and when starting at home, he has managed 20 shots in seven games. Notably, he has recorded three or more shots in four of those seven home starts.
Bournemouth have been an attacking force at home, averaging 17.50 shots per game and 5.88 shots on target, ranking among the most dangerous sides in the league. Their home form has been solid, with a W6-D3-L3 record at the Vitality Stadium. Due to injuries, Ouattara is expected to play in a more advanced role, which has increased the number of shots he is taking as he is getting into better shooting positions.
Only Manchester City and Liverpool have averaged more shots on target per game than Bournemouth this season, underlining their attacking intent. Meanwhile, Wolves have struggled defensively on the road, with a W2-D3-L8 away record. Only the bottom three, West Ham, and Brentford have conceded more shots on target than Wolves this season.
Recent matches highlight Wolves’ defensive vulnerabilities, with Chelsea registering 19 shots and Newcastle taking 17 against them. With Bournemouth’s strong attacking numbers and Ouattara set for a more advanced role, he should find plenty of opportunities to test the Wolves defence.
- Best Bet: Dango Ouattaro to have over 2.5 shots at 1.95 with Coral
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