Premier League top scorer odds and prediction: League’s top hitmen sit joint top

With the 2024/25 campaign now gathering pace, the bookies have a clear favourite in the Premier League top scorer odds market. But is it that straightforward this soon in a 38-game season?

The current favourite is two-time consecutive Golden Boot winner Erling Haaland. However, a few other big names are looking for their chance to take the crown from the Norwegian.

Liverpool's Mohamed Salah has been in fine form this Premier League season, and has duly taken advantage of Haaland's goal drought to go level with the Man City talisman on 13 goals.

Best Premier League top scorer odds

Erling Haaland

Early-season favourite Haaland has had a torrid time of late, only managing to score twice in his last five league games while Manchester City's form has taken a complete nose dive. Although this may not seem too bad on paper, it is far below the standard we have come to expect from the Norwegian.

He got himself on the scoresheet against Crystal Palace, but this was only enough to level Salah's current tally of 13 goals. With City seemingly in disarray, it could be problematic for Haaland to cement himself at the top again.

The big striker is still in pole position for the award at the moment, with bookies pricing him at 8/13, but with his current form the striker seems a poor choice.

He was also the comfortable favourite at the start of the term, but has now seen Salah rack up just as many strikes. The Egyptian seems to be a man possessed at the minute, as he has already racked up 21 goal contributions in the first 14 fixtures.

Mohamed Salah

Another two goals for Salah against Newcastle took his total to a fantastic 13 for the season, and he is now one ahead of Haaland.

If the likelihood of winning the award was based on form, Salah would be the nailed-on favourite. Eight goals in his last six Premier League outings, the winger just cannot stop scoring at the moment.

Everything good about Arne Slot's Liverpool seems to go through Salah. He has always been integral to the Reds' form in recent years, but this year has actually been his greatest-ever start to a Premier League campaign.

The Egyptian's odds shortened greatly this week from 3/1 to 6/4, as Liverpool fell to a late draw against Newcastle despite being 3-2 in front going into added time.

If the Reds can keep winning, though, it is certain that Salah will continue his scoring run, as the winger has been pivotal to the title charge of Slot's side so far.

Cole Palmer

Cole Palmer got himself another brace against Tottenham to make it 11 for the season. He now sits only two behind the leaders, having fallen to a five-goal deficit early on.

Palmer's odds of securing the Golden Boot have been slipping for some time despite the fact he remains third in the scoring charts, but shortened dramatically to 9/1 this week.

Chelsea's excellent form means that Palmer is a good shout for punters, especially when considering they are the league's top scorers with 35 goals.

9/1 are his odds for anyone looking to make an outside pick on who will be the division's top goalscorer.

Selected outsiders

Chris Wood

Another unlikely shout for the Golden Boot is Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood. The New Zealand international has had a fantastic start to the season, already notching 10 goals for a revitalised Forest side who sit fifth in the table.

Only one behind Palmer and three off Salah, Wood has been staking a claim on the golden boot right from the get go, and is still only seen as a 33/1 outsider by the bookies.

Another goal against a waning Manchester United side means that his scoring has remained consistent throughout the season, and shows he can find the net against any calibre of opponent.

Punters may want to take a chance on Wood's long odds.

Nicolas Jackson

After critics of his first season in the Premier League stated Jackson needed to be much more clinical in front of goal, the Senegalese striker has struck back, tallying eight goals so far for a Chelsea side who seem to have finally got their act together under new manager Maresca.

However, Jackson fired a blank against Tottenham, and was visibly disappointed with his own performance at the final whistle, having to be consoled by Maresca despite the team's victory.

Yet, the high standard to which Jackson clearly holds himself may stand him in good stead to progress in the scoring charts, with bookies currently pricing him at 33/1.

However, already five goals behind Salah, it will be a tall order for Jackson to make up the ground, in spite of his impressive performances.

Premier League top scorer history and trends

Some notable trends and other facts:

• The years spanning 2014-2022 did not see the Golden Boot winner/s also lift the PL title.
• Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane are the only Englishmen to lift this century's Golden Boot.
• Under the 38-game PL format (1995/96-present) the average tally from Golden Boot winners is 25.8 goals.
• During this same period, a tally of 25 goals has been enough for the Golden Boot on 15 of a possible 29 occasions.
• Only five of the 33 prior Premier League seasons have seen multiple winners.
• Liverpool currently have the highest number of Golden Boot awards (seven, awarded to four different players)

Further advice

If available, a double on Man City winning the title and Haaland claiming the Golden Boot would be the obvious choice to make the most of the top scorer betting market.

Such is how Haaland has effectively killed this market’s sense of movement; some bookmakers are offering prices on certain players to ‘win’ the Golden Boot without Haaland in the equation – the market is best known as ‘Top Goalscorer w/o Erling Haaland’.

As a regular feature in the above table, Salah looks like a smart pick to be the top scorer w/o Haaland.

Our Premier League top scorer prediction

It's hard to look past Haaland for the top Premier League scorer once again, unless he has to miss a big chunk of games for some unfortunate reason. Yes, the odds are short, and it is an uninspiring and boring situation, but that's the reality.

In his two previous seasons with Man City, Haaland averaged 0.95 goals per game, which is ridiculous. Even his ‘sophomore slump’ to 27 goals last season would still see him win the Golden Boot on most occasions, with 2017/18 being the last time before his debut campaign that such a tally would be insufficient to claim the award.

Simply put, the Premier League is Haaland's league, and we would be very surprised if that changes in 2024/25.

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