In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
What a fantastic weekend for our shots column! Our tips for the Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United game were delivered, with Murillo continuing his streak of registering a shot. To top it off, his fellow centre-back Milenkovic hit a header on target, landing winners at 9.5 and 2.0. This week, we are sticking to the successful trend of backing headers on target against teams struggling to defend set pieces.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest take on Aston Villa in the late Saturday evening game on Sky TV, and it promises to be another entertaining clash. One standout betting opportunity involves Forest’s centre-back Murillo, who has consistently delivered value in recent weeks. Last weekend, he cashed our bet against Manchester United by registering a shot in the first half, and it's surprising to see similar odds still available for this week’s fixtures.
Murillo has now had a shot on goal in each of his last nine matches, totalling 13 attempts during that span. This season, he has registered a shot in 60% of his games, which suggests implied odds of 1.67. Yet, Sky Bet is offering market-leading odds of 1.80 for him to have a shot, outperforming Bet365 and other bookmakers.
Forest are in strong form at home, winning four of their seven fixtures and losing just twice. They have scored in six of those games, with many being low-scoring affairs—ideal conditions for a centre-back like Murillo to join the attack during set pieces. Aston Villa, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, losing their last three away games by a combined score of 9-1 and conceding in every away fixture this season.
Murillo offers multiple avenues to get involved offensively. Not only does he pose a threat from set pieces, but he’s also comfortable taking free kicks from range and bringing the ball out of defence to create shooting opportunities from distance. If his form continues, these generous odds won’t last much longer, making now the perfect time to take advantage of this market.
- Best Bet: Murillo over 0.5 shots at 1.80 with Skybet
Wolves vs Ipswich Town
It’s a crucial clash at the bottom of the Premier League as Ipswich travel to Wolves on Saturday afternoon. Wolves have been particularly vulnerable from set pieces this season—only Leicester and Southampton have conceded more shots from these situations. Wolves rank sixth for the highest xG conceded from set pieces and lead the league in goals allowed from such situations, with 13 of their 38 (34%) goals conceded coming from set pieces.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have struggled to score from open play but pose a significant threat from set pieces. Only six Premier League teams have registered more shots from set pieces than the Tractor Boys, who have generated 4.58 xG and scored three goals from these opportunities. Centre-backs Dara O’Shea, Cameron Burgess, and Jacob Greaves all present aerial threats, making Ipswich particularly dangerous in these scenarios.
O’Shea is a guaranteed starter and has been consistent in attacking set pieces, recording 10 shots in 12 games this season and managing at least one shot in eight of those fixtures. Burgess, who is expected to keep his place ahead of Greaves, has played seven matches this season and registered eight shots, with at least one shot in five of those games.
Notably, in Ipswich’s last away match against Nottingham Forest, Burgess had three shots, including one cleared off the goal line. Should manager Kieran McKenna opt to start Greaves instead of Burgess, he too offers a threat, having recorded six attempts on goal in eight games, with at least one shot in five of them.
With excellent set-piece delivery from Leif Davis and Omari Hutchinson, Ipswich should have plenty of opportunities to capitalize on Wolves' weakness. Backing whichever two of the three centre-backs start to register a shot, or a header on target, offers strong value in this matchup.
- Best Bet: Cameron Burgess to have over 0.5 shotsat 2.25 with Bet365
- Best Bet: Cameron Burgess to have over 1.5 shotsat 8.0 with Bet365
- Best Bet: Cameron Burgess to have 1+ header on target at 8.0 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Dara O’Shea to have over 0.5 shotsat 1.83 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Dara O’Shea to have 1+ header on target at 6.50 with Skybet
Man City vs Man Utd
Manchester United’s defensive struggles at set pieces have been increasingly evident in recent matches, with both Arsenal and Nottingham Forest capitalising on this weakness. This weekend, they face Manchester City in the derby, and it could be another opportunity for their opponents to exploit their vulnerability. United now have the third-highest xGA from set pieces in the league, with only Southampton and Wolves conceding more goals from these situations.
In contrast, City are highly effective from set pieces, generating 5.95 xG—the second highest in the league—and only Crystal Palace have attempted more shots from these situations. Two players stand out as aerial threats for City in this matchup.
Erling Haaland has been a dominant force in the air, registering 21 headed attempts in his 15 Premier League appearances this season. With City expected to dominate possession and rack up corners, Haaland should have plenty of opportunities to add to this tally. Sky Bet offers odds of 2.63 for Haaland to have a header on target, which presents strong value given his consistent aerial presence.
The second player to watch is City centre-back Ruben Dias. He has already recorded three headed attempts this season and is a key target during set pieces. You can back Dias at 1.90 to have a shot on goal, 5.0 to have a header on target, or a sizable 29.0 to register two headers on target. These options provide excellent value, especially considering United's ongoing struggles defending against aerial threats in set-piece situations.
- Best Bet: Erling Haaland to 1+ headed shot on target at 2.63 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Ruben Dias to 1+ headed shot on target at 5.0 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Ruben Dias to 2+ headed shot on target at 29.0 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Ruben Dias to have over 0.5 shots at 1.90 with Bet365
Combining Haaland and Burgess to have a header on target and Murillo to have a shot on target will give you odds of 78.75 with Skybet.
In December 2020 we sadly 
