USA v Belgium
USA

USA vs Belgium

, KO: 01:00 , Seattle Stadium
Belgium

Co-hosts the USA will look to reach the quarter-finals of the World Cup as they take on Belgium at Seattle Stadium in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

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The USA have been impressive so far this tournament, with Mauricio Pochettino’s side topping Group D after winning both of their opening two matches against Paraguay and Australia.

They lost a dead rubber against Turkiye in their final group match, but bounced back with a 2-0 victory over Bosnia & Herzegovina in the Round of 32 despite playing the final half an hour with 10 men.

Red-hot Monaco forward Florian Balogun had given the Stars and Stripes the lead on the stroke of half-time before being sent off, but ex-Rangers loanee Malik Tillman sealed the victory for the co-hosts with a free-kick.

Belgium are arguably the luckiest team still in the tournament, as despite drawing their opening two matches in Group G against Egypt and Iran, Rudi Garcia’s men still managed to finish top on goal difference thanks to a 5-1 thrashing of Egypt.

It looked as if the Red Devils were heading home as they trailed Senegal by two goals to nil after 85 minutes.

However, two goals in the space of three minutes by record-goalscorer Romelu Lukaku and then Youri Tielemans took the game to extra time, before the Aston Villa midfielder clinched the tie from the penalty spot.

How the bookies view it: Tough one to call

The bookies are finding it hard to separate these two sides, with bet365 pricing both at 10/11 To Qualify.

Belgium are marginal favourites to get the job done inside 90 minutes, with bet365 pricing them at 8/5, whilst the co-hosts are 7/4 to win inside regulation time.

More match odds are available on our best mobile apps for World Cup betting.

Head to head: Belgian dominance

This is a fixture that Belgium have tended to dominate, with the Red Devils winning each of their last six meetings with the USA, including knocking them out at this stage in the 2014 World Cup, winning 2-1 AET.

The USA won the first-ever meeting between these two nations way back in the inaugural World Cup, winning 3-0 in the group stages.

Players to watch: Roll the dice with Rom?

Romelu Lukaku has had his fitness concerns all season long, hence why the Napoli frontman has started just one of Belgium’s form matches in North America this summer.

However, Belgium’s record-goalscorer has come off the bench to score in both of the Red Devils’ last two matches and could be worth a punt to get on the scoresheet here, even if he does start the game on the bench.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Predicted line-ups:

Despite his red card against Bosnia & Herzegovina last time out, USA striker Florian Balogun has been cleared to play in Seattle in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

Rudi Garcia appears to have no fresh injury or suspension concerns, but may rotate after going to extra time against Senegal in the previous round.

USA: Freese, Freeman, Richards, Ream, Robinson, Adams, McKennie, Dest, Tillman, Pulisic, Balogun

Belgium: Courtois, Castagne, Mechele, Theate, De Cuyper, Tielemans, Raskin, Trossard, De Bruyne, Doku, Lukaku

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Belgium win

The biggest result market discrepancy in the confirmed Round of 16 comes in this fixture. The market gives USA a 36.3% implied chance of victory, yet their Elo rating of 1798 against Belgium's 1910 produces only a 25.9% win probability. Belgium rate at 49.3% by Elo but are priced at just 35.7%, making them the strongest value side in the result market.

Rudi Garcia's side have the attacking quality to justify that edge. Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku and Romelu Lukaku were instrumental in the 3-2 extra-time victory over Senegal, continuing a tournament in which Belgium have consistently created chances against strong opposition.

USA remain competitive but have looked less convincing against organised teams. Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie have struggled to impose themselves consistently, while their defensive numbers have been boosted by an outlier performance against Turkey.

My model rates both teams to score at 55.5%, slightly below the market expectation of 59.5%, leaving Belgium to win as the strongest betting angle.

Anything else catch the eye?

Having Florian Balogun available is a massive boost for Mauricio Pochettino’s side, and they will relish the challenge of trying to get past a far from convincing Belgian backline.

The Belgians can find themselves extremely fortunate to still be in the tournament, and with the home crowd behind them, I fancy the USA To Qualify at 10/11 at bet365.

Goals should be on the cards at Seattle here, given both sides are far stronger offensively than defensively, with Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals priced at Evens at bet365.

USA vs Belgium Betting Tips & Predictions
USA To Qualify
10/11
Bet365
Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
1/1
Bet365
Romelu Lukaku to Score Anytime
7/4
Bet365
Further Reading
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