Argentina were involved in a match that will be remembered for a long time, but certainly not because of the defending world champions’ performance. But now, one step closer to defending their title, they face an ambitious Egyptian national team that continues to make history.
La Albiceleste played their weakest match since the start of the previous World Cup, coming within minutes of a penalty shootout and a potential elimination at the hands of Cape Verde.
The underdog nation, which became the sensation of this World Cup, pushed them to the absolute limit, coming back from behind twice. Argentina needed an own goal by Diney Borges to secure their advancement.
Contrary to expectations, Cape Verde did not play a purely defensive game but showed courage and aggression. This was either a surprise for Argentina, or they had simply underestimated them overall.
Ultimately, this is irrelevant, because La Albiceleste advanced and will face Egypt, who achieved a historic first victory in World Cup knockouts.
The Pharaohs also played a full 120 minutes, with the difference being that they needed a penalty shootout to advance. But the match against Australia showed that Egypt are far from being on the level of the major football nations, and it’s quite likely their days are numbered.
But even if they’re eliminated here, Egypt can be happy with their performance, having advanced from the group stage without a single loss.
How the bookies view it: La Albiceleste to stroll to the next stage
There was hardly any doubt as to who would be the favourite in this match, because the gap in skill level between the world’s No. 1 team and 29th-ranked Egypt is enormous in every aspect of the game.
Consequently, bookmakers are offering about 2/5 for Argentina, while Egypt are available at 15/2. Following both teams’ draws in the last round, you can bet on a repeat of that result at around 15/4.
We’re noticing an interesting trend in people’s bets, with many choosing to back an upset by Egypt, which is causing Argentina’s odds to rise significantly. You can check out the best available options by using our best mobile apps for World Cup betting.
Recent head-to-head: Egypt have never scored against Argentina
Argentina and Egypt have faced each other twice in football matches, but never at a World Cup. Their most recent match was in 2008, when La Albiceleste won the friendly 2-0. And nearly 100 years ago, they played at the 1928 Olympic Games, when Argentina won 6-0.
Players to watch: No goals without Messi
No matter what anyone says, Argentina score almost no goals without Lionel Messi's involvement. Even in the goals where he isn’t credited with an assist or a goal, the threat usually starts with his play, as we saw with all three goals against Cape Verde.
Although Egypt are, on paper, a tougher opponent, we expect Messi to have more open space against them. So far in the tournament, he has taken 6, 7, 2, and 9 shots, with those two coming from the match against Jordan, where he wasn’t in the starting lineup. Out of those 24 shots, 15 have been on target, averaging 3.75 per game.
Whether you choose to bet on him scoring a goal at 13/20, making 3+ shots on target at 6/5, or taking a total of 5+ shots at 1/2—all options make sense and should pay off.
Probable line-ups
Argentina: E. Martinez, L. Martinez, Romero, Molina, Medina, Mac Allister, Fernandez, De Paulo, Almada, Martinez, Messi
Egypt: Shobeir, Rabia, Ibrahim, Fathy, Hany, Ziko, Ateya, Lasheen, Ashour, Ziko, Salah, Marmoush
Anything else catch the eye?
Argentina showed some weaknesses against Cape Verde and can’t afford to do the same against a team that features players like Mohamed Salah. We expect a tighter defence and more dominant play up front, which should help La Albiceleste secure a victory in regulation time without any unnecessary drama.
Egypt are capable of creating dangerous chances, so we think it’s worth betting on over 2.5 goals. It’s even possible that the Pharaohs could score an early goal and sit back, forcing Argentina to come back from behind. This, in turn, could lead to a bunch of corners, so you can keep an eye out for that if you plan to bet live.
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