Neighbouring powerhouses Portugal and Spain face off in a rematch of last year’s UEFA Nations League final, but this time the prize is a spot in the World Cup quarterfinals. However, given their performances so far, it seems likely that the outcome will be quite different this time around.
Portugal give off the vibe of a team that lacks sufficient motivation to win until the moment they start falling behind. The first half against Croatia once again showed no class and was almost soporific.
The moment the Croatians scored, however, the Selecao das Quinas shifted into high gear. The draw seemed all but certain until Goncalo Ramos’s goal in the 94th minute.
The problem, however, is that while Croatia, on paper, had the most experienced squad at major tournaments, they are far from Spain’s level. And Portugal won’t get anywhere if they repeat their performance from this match and the games against Colombia and Congo.
La Roja put on a show against Austria, dominating every aspect of the game. Overall, they could have scored far more than three goals, but luck also plays a role in football. The fact remains, however, that Austria didn’t stand a chance, finishing the match with only five shots and not a single one on target.
After the first knockout round, Spain remain one of only two teams (along with Mexico) that have not conceded a goal in this World Cup.
How the bookies view it: Portugal's days are numbered
The difference in current form is obvious, and the bookmakers are reflecting that in their odds. Spain are the heavy favourites at 9/10, while Portugal are priced at 3/1. If you think we might see a draw like the one in the Nations League final a year ago, you can bet on it at 13/5.
Curiously, the trend shows an increase in Spain's odds, which started at around 3/4. This means that many bettors are backing Portugal to win. You can find the best available options using our best mobile apps for world cup betting.
Recent head-to-head: Four draws in five competitive H2Hs
As neighbours and two of the major football nations, Portugal and Spain have been playing against each other for over 100 years, with head-to-head matches dating back to the 1920s. We found records of 39 matches since 1922, but, more importantly, only 12 were official and in major tournaments.
Over the past 15 years, they have faced each other five times at European Championships and World Cups, with four of those matches ending level in regulation time. This shows just how closely contested their H2Hs are.
Players to watch: Oyarzabal is impressively consistent
Mikel Oyarzabal was once again at the center of the action against Austria, taking a total of six shots and scoring two goals. We knew we could expect a lot of shots, and we plan to place the same bet, but with a lower line.
This time, Bet365 is offering 1/2 for 3+ shots, and we think it’s worth it based on Oyarzabal's performance so far. He has had 17 goal attempts across Spain's four matches so far.
Probable line-ups
Portugal: Costa, Mendes, Veiga, Dias, Cancelo, Neves, Vitinha, Neto, Fernandes, Leao, Ronaldo
Spain: Simon, Cucurella, Laporte, Cubarsi, Porro, Pedri, Rodri, Baena, Olmo, Yamal, Oyarzabal
Anything else catch the eye?
Referees have been given clear instructions to be sparing with their cards at this World Cup, and this is becoming increasingly obvious. There are more than 1-2 examples of matches that ended with 1-2 cards, when there should have been 5+. But while we're more cautious with the card markets, we can expect some bookings when Portugal and Spain face off at this stage.
On paper, Spain should win, but matches against Portugal are always extremely tough and closely contested, and we certainly see value in a draw. But in any case, we don’t expect to see a scoreless draw.
Portugal hasn’t been particularly effective in front of goal so far, but to get the better of Spain, they’ll have to play their best football. We expect Spain’s clean sheet streak to end in this match.
GambleAware