The unfortunate losers from the first round of Group 1 face each other in what is now a crucial match, on which their fate in the UEFA Nations League may well hinge. Years ago, the outcome of this match would have been a foregone conclusion, but now Turkey certainly won’t feel like underdogs against Italy.
Turkey didn’t look too bad against France, but they lost due to the same problems we’ve seen time and again recently. The Crescent-Stars have a habit of starting their matches very slowly, and in the first half we saw a completely one-sided affair in favour of the visitors.
In the second half, one could argue that they were the better side on the pitch despite conceding a goal, but by that stage France already knew what they had to do and played intelligently.
Undoubtedly, Turkey will have a much better chance against Italy, who once again failed to impress in their 2-0 defeat to Belgium.
The Azzurri were counting on Roberto Mancini to get them back to winning ways, but it seems that will have to wait a little longer. Worse still, after the first match it appears that the team’s problems are twofold – a lack of creativity and finishing, and an overly shaky defence.
There was a time when Italy were renowned for their defence, and that is where they must start if they are to secure better results. But at the same time, someone also needs to step up and start scoring goals.
How the bookies view it: They are telling us to back a stalemate
Bookmakers view this match as almost 100 per cent evenly matched, with the odds being virtually indistinguishable.
At the moment, you can back Turkey at 17/10, whilst the visitors from Italy are available at around 8/5 – almost identical odds. Consequently, there are high expectations of a draw, which is priced at 12/5.
Recent head-to-head: The Azzurri are undefeated against the Crescent-Stars
In recent years, we have mainly seen Turkey and Italy face each other in friendly matches, but over the years they have also played at some major tournaments.
Most recently, they met at Euro 2024, when the Azzurri won convincingly 3–0 in the group stage. Overall, Italy have never lost to Turkey in a total of 13 matches between the two nations, having secured nine victories.
Players to watch: Guler could play a crucial role
There is no doubt that Italy have a more experienced squad and players who consistently perform at the very highest level, but their form in the national team is nowhere near as impressive as their performances at club level.
Italy will be hoping that Moise Kean can regain some of his form, having scored three goals in the previous edition of the tournament.
Turkey, meanwhile, will be relying on their star player Arda Guler to come up with something special to lead the team to victory.
Probable line-ups
Turkey: Cakir, Bardakci, Demiral, Celik, Kadioglu, Yuksek, Ozcan, Aydin, Akturkoglu, Guler, Yilmaz
Italy: Donnarumma, Calafiori, Bastoni, Mancini, Kayode, Barella, Frattesi, Tonali, Raspadori, Cambiaghi, Kean
Anything else catch the eye?
The previous UEFA Nations League campaign saw Italy secure three away wins in the group stage, including victories over Belgium and France. We’ll find out as early as Monday whether something similar is possible, but Turkey certainly have enough firepower to withstand any pressure.
They had plenty of chances against France, and Italy have neither the form nor the players of Les Bleus. In my view, we’ll see more goals here, and I expect both teams to score.
I certainly wouldn’t risk picking a winner, as I expect a very evenly matched game, but I think it’s quite possible we’ll see more cards in this match, given its importance.
To conclude, I’m going for Italy to score the first goal. This has happened in eight of their last nine matches, whilst Turkey have conceded first in each of their last five. As I said at the start, the Crescent-Stars often get off to a slow start in their matches.
GambleAware