Fulham have won three of their last four league meetings with Sunderland, including a 3-1 victory at the Stadium of Light earlier this year. The teams return to the same ground on Sunday at 14:00 after both began the season with high-scoring defeats.
Sunderland lost 2-1 at Ipswich despite having more possession, with Regis Le Bris admitting his team were “second best.” Nilson Angulo’s free kick was their only goal, although Sunderland still recorded 0.91 xG, 11 shots, four shots on target and two big chances.
Ipswich generated 1.43 xG and created two big chances at the other end. Sunderland remained competitive, but the performance continued the defensive concerns shown by last season’s underlying numbers.
Sunderland won nine, drew six and lost four of their 19 home league matches last season, scoring 25 goals and conceding 20. Their process was less convincing, with 1.09 xG and 1.60 xGA producing an xG ratio of 0.41, which ranked 19th in the division.
Their home matches averaged 2.37 goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in 47%. Both teams scored in 47%, while Sunderland failed to score in 26% and kept clean sheets in 37%.
Fulham opened with a 3-2 home defeat to Chelsea in a game containing 3.43 combined xG, 32 shots, 12 shots on target and six big chances. Alvaro Arbeloa then made 10 changes for the Carabao Cup tie against AFC Wimbledon, but Fulham still won comfortably.
The visitors struggled away last season, winning four, drawing five and losing 10 of their 19 matches. They scored 17 goals and conceded 31, with their fixtures averaging 2.53 goals.
Fulham’s away xG of 1.14 ranked 16th, while their xGA of 1.34 ranked 10th. They failed to score in 42% of their away games and kept clean sheets in only 16%, leaving regular opportunities for opponents.
How the bookies view it
Sunderland are 16/11, implying a 40.7% chance of winning. The draw is 12/5, implying 29.4%, while Fulham are 2/1, implying 33.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10, implying 47.6%, with under 2.5 available at 4/5, implying 55.6%. Both teams to score is 4/5, implying 55.6%.
Head to head: Very little between these sides over the years
The clubs have met 68 times across all competitions, with Sunderland winning 26, Fulham 22 and the remaining 20 ending level.
Fulham have won three of the last four league meetings, including a 3-1 victory at the Stadium of Light earlier this year. That result provides a relevant recent example of Fulham finding space against Sunderland away from home.
Player to watch: Gonzalo Garcia to continue scoring start?
Gonzalo Garcia has scored in each of his first two Fulham appearances. He found the net on his Premier League debut against Chelsea before scoring again in the Carabao Cup win over AFC Wimbledon.
Garcia recorded three shots in both matches, showing a consistent level of attacking involvement. He looks set to start ahead of Rodrigo Muniz, who remains an option after returning from a long-term injury.
Predicted lineups
Sunderland (4-2-3-1): Roefs, Meunier, Ballard, O’Nien, Reinildo, Xhaka, Sadiki, Hume, Le Fee, Angulo, Brobbey.
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno, Castagne, Cuenca, Bassey, Robinson, Berge, Iwobi, Bobb, King, Palacios, Garcia.
Anything else catch the eye
Both opening league matches cleared 2.5 goals, with Sunderland’s defeat producing 2.35 combined xG and Fulham’s game generating 3.43. The teams also combined for 53 shots, 19 shots on target and 10 big chances.
Sunderland’s home results were strong last season, but their 1.60 xGA suggests they allowed more chances than their total of 20 goals conceded indicates. Fulham kept only three clean sheets in 19 away games and conceded 31 times, while Gonzalo Garcia has started the season with two goals in two appearances.
The bet is over 2.5 goals at 11/10. Sunderland’s stronger home record gives them the narrow edge, but Fulham’s recent record in this fixture and early attacking output should make this competitive.
Sunderland vs Fulham Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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