Spain return home for the first time since winning the World Cup, and everything points towards another triumph, as they haven't lost on home turf since 2022. Croatia are in form, but will need a miracle to upset the hosts amidst their celebrations.
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a team like the current Spanish side. Not only did they become World Champions in convincing fashion, but in their last three matches they beat every one of the other national teams in the top four of the World Rankings – Argentina, France and England.
They faced the latter on Saturday and staged an impressive comeback after trailing 2–1 at half-time. If anyone expected them to take it easy in this tournament after winning the World Cup, they were mistaken. La Roja were determined to win at all costs and finished the match with 3.12 xG.
If they’ve managed to beat almost every top side in recent months, the logical conclusion is that they should have no trouble with Croatia either, who, for their part, pulled off a surprise away win against the Czech Republic in the first round.
The highlight of the evening was the performance of Croatian football legends Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic, who were directly involved in the two goals.
It is unclear how much longer we will have the pleasure of watching them, but they are yet further proof that age does not matter all that much. Nevertheless, it is difficult to expect that this will be enough to see them through against Spain, and that is precisely how the bookmakers see it.
How the bookies view it: La Roja won't lose at home
The difference in the odds is truly staggering, even though Croatia have been one of the strongest national teams for years now. At the moment, you can back Spain at 1/5, a draw at 13/2 or Croatia at 12/1.
Recent head-to-head: Spain won four of the last five
Spain and Croatia have treated us to some incredible evenings in recent years, including a final in the same tournament three years ago, which La Roja won on penalties.
Their most recent meeting at Euro 2024 ended in a one-sided 3-0 win for Spain, and overall they have four wins in their last five head-to-head matches.
Players to watch: Yamal wants the Ballon d'Or
The victory over England has once again demonstrated just how many players Luis de la Fuente can count on. But amongst all the stars at his disposal, I cannot help but single out Lamine Yamal, who has been in the form of his life since the start of the season.
His previous two seasons were sensational, but this one looks set to be on another level. In his first nine matches for Barcelona and Spain, he has scored nine goals and provided six assists.
Probable line-ups
Spain: Simon, Cucurella, Laporte, Cubarsi, Pubill, Rodri, Pedri, Baena, Olmo, Yamal, Oyarzabal
Croatia: Livakovic, Perisic, Gvardiol, Vuskovic, Stanisic, Modric, Kovacic, Pasalic, P. Sucic, L. Sucic, Budimir
Anything else catch the eye?
Spain simply cannot produce a dull match, regardless of the opposition. Croatia haven’t disappointed either, scoring plenty of goals, but their defence is by no means top-class.
They're unlikely to cope with the pressure from the world champions, and I find it hard to bet against the obvious here. It also feels risky to back Croatia to score, given that Spain conceded just one goal in seven World Cup matches.
But this tournament doesn’t carry the same weight, and that’s clear to everyone, so in my view the BTTS option is worth more than usual.
GambleAware