Winners of the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations, Senegal are aiming to go all the way once again in 2025, and they will begin their campaign against minnows Botswana.
This is only Botswana’s second appearance at the tournament, having previously reached the finals in 2012, when they failed to win any of their three group matches before bowing out.
Much has changed since Senegal’s sole AFCON triumph, with the Teranga Lions failing to progress beyond the round of 16 at the last edition, while they are also being led by a new man into this tournament.
An icon during his playing career, Aliou Cisse transitioned into coaching after retirement and eventually delivered the long-awaited AFCON trophy for Senegal. However, his nine-year tenure came to an end in December 2024, with former international Pape Thiaw taking over the reins.
Thiaw has made an impressive start, losing just one of his 14 matches in charge – a friendly defeat to Uganda – while winning 11, giving him a remarkable 78.57% win rate and guiding Senegal to qualification for the 2026 World Cup.
Senegal arrive at this tournament in fine form, having won six of their last seven matches (1L), keeping four clean sheets in the process and most recently recording their biggest-ever victory by thrashing Kenya 8-0 in their final warm-up game.
They also boast a strong AFCON run stretching back to the 2019 edition, remaining unbeaten inside 90 minutes since then (W7, D4). In addition, they have won their opening group match at each of the last five AFCON tournaments, keeping a clean sheet on four of those occasions.
Botswana, meanwhile, lack both pedigree and momentum heading into this clash, having lost four of their last five matches (1D). They were beaten 2-1 by Tunisia in an international friendly last time out and have not won a game in regulation time since March (4D, 4L).
Nevertheless, the Zebras will be determined to make history as they chase their first-ever AFCON point, having conceded nine goals and scored just twice while losing all three matches during their only previous appearance in 2012.
How the bookies view it: Senegal are overwhelming favourites
Bookmakers see Senegal as clear favourites, reflected in their very short 1/5 odds on bet365, pointing to an extremely high likelihood of victory.
Botswana are priced at 14/1, underlining their status as heavy underdogs, while the 21/4 odds on a draw further reinforce expectations of a comfortable Senegalese win.
The odds highlight a significant gulf in quality, with anything other than a Senegal victory considered a major upset.
Recent head-to-head: Few meetings but Senegal dominance
The sides first met during AFCON qualification in 2014, with Senegal winning both encounters without conceding a goal.
Players to watch: Sadio Mane
Mane is Senegal’s all-time leading goalscorer, having found the net 51 times in 119 appearances – at least 22 more than former striker Henri Camara, who sits next on the list.
Now 33, the Al Nassr forward remains central to the Teranga Lions’ attacking threat, having recently scored a hat-trick against Kenya. Notably, Senegal have never lost a match in which Mane has scored (W37, D5).
Probable line-ups
Senegal will be without Assane Diao, who has withdrawn from the tournament due to a thigh injury, while Sunderland midfielder Habib Diarra only just made the squad after recovering from a groin problem.
Botswana have just five players based outside the domestic league and arrive at the tournament at full strength, with no reported injury concerns.
Senegal: Mendy; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf; I. Gueye, L. Camara, P. Sarr; I. Sarr, Jackson, Mane
Botswana: Kaosipula; Velaphi, Leinanyane, Gaolaolwe, Johnson; Seakanyeng, Mohutiswa, Ditsele; Boy, Sesinyi, Orebonye
Anything else that catches the eye?
Only one of Senegal’s last nine AFCON group matches has seen both teams score, making a ‘both teams to score – no’ option appealing here.
Botswana have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five matches, and with Senegal’s attacking depth, the Teranga Lions scoring two or more goals looks a strong possibility.
GambleAware