It’s the favourite time of year for all football fans, namely the start of the Champions League, and right from the first round of the league phase, we have a clash worthy of a final. Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid host Inter Milan – the team with which the Portuguese manager won the tournament many years ago.
Tuesday evening will be long remembered, and expectations for this match are sky-high. Real Madrid’s new era got off to a flawless start, right up until the final match of the weekend. On Friday, Los Blancos lost 1–0 to Real Betis, despite being the far superior side on the pitch and finishing the match with 3.46 xG.
It was simply a day when everything went against them, and we certainly cannot regard it as a typical result.
Inter Milan, meanwhile, have started with three wins in Serie A; also at the weekend, they outplayed their main rivals for the Scudetto in recent seasons – Napoli – in a magnificent match.
Undoubtedly, the Nerazzurri will be more tired, as Real Madrid had an extra day’s rest, but at the start of the season this shouldn’t be a factor.
Inter’s form is phenomenal, but we mustn’t forget that they have lost five of their last six Champions League matches, which is quite shocking given their success in the competition in recent years.
How the bookies view it: Heavy advantage for the 15-time champions
The advantage the bookmakers are giving Real Madrid is absolutely shocking, given the visitors’ form. Of course, they’ll be favourites at the Bernabeu, but the margin here seems excessive.
You can currently back Real Madrid at 13/20, whilst Inter Milan are available at a whopping 4/1. A draw is priced at 16/5.
Recent head-to-head: Los Blancos won the last four H2Hs
While the odds surprised us a bit, the history between the two teams may well explain Real Madrid’s huge advantage. Inter Milan have always struggled against them and, generally speaking, against Spanish sides.
Los Blancos have won the last four head-to-head matches in the Champions League, as well as eight of the last ten across all competitions. In fact, Inter have not won away against Real Madrid since the 1966–67 season.
In addition, it is worth noting that the home side have won 19 of their last 21 matches against Italian teams in UEFA competitions.
Players to watch: Mbappe moves differently in the UCL
Both managers will have injury concerns, but their key goalscorers will be available.
There’s hardly any need to mention Kylian Mbappe’s class, but the Frenchman has scored 22 goals in 25 Champions League matches for Real Madrid. Last season, he scored 15 in 11 matches.
Lautaro Martinez cannot boast quite such statistics, but he remains Inter’s main threat in attack this season as well. After his brace against Napoli, he will certainly be motivated for more.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
Real Madrid: Courtois, Cucurella, Huijsen, Konate, Dumfries, Bellingham, Diomande, Valverde, Diaz, Vinicius Jr, Mbappe
Inter Milan: Martinez, Akanji, Bisseck, Bastoni, Diouf, Calhanoglu, Jones, Barella, Dimarco, Martinez, Thuram
Anything else catch the eye?
Inter Milan must put all their setbacks in last season’s competition behind them and play their best football if they are to stand a chance against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu.
It would be hard to believe if this match proved to be a low-scoring affair, although the battle in midfield will be fierce. But Inter are a far stronger side than they were on their last visits to this ground, so I expect at least one exchange of goals before the winner is decided.
Ultimately, though, I don’t think Mourinho will allow a home defeat, regardless of the opposition. If we set aside the problems in the final third from their last match, Los Blancos have been playing phenomenal football since the start of the season.
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