Reading host Brentford in the third round of the EFL Cup on Tuesday, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00. The League One hosts are attempting to reach the fourth round after a strong attacking start, while Brentford arrive unbeaten in the Premier League.
Reading suffered a 2-1 defeat at Cambridge United on Saturday despite producing the stronger underlying performance. Jack Marriott opened the scoring before Liam Bennett and Kell Watts responded with headed goals after half-time.
Kyreece Lisbie threatened an equaliser, shooting narrowly wide before striking the post. Reading finished with 19 attempts and generated 1.68 xG, while Cambridge scored twice from 0.81 xG.
The result left Reading with two wins, one draw and two defeats from five league matches. Their victories were convincing, with Mansfield Town beaten 5-0 before Blackpool were also beaten, this time 3-1.
Reading also kept a clean sheet in the previous round. Jacob Brown and Paddy Lane established a 2-0 first-half lead against Stevenage before Randell Williams added a late third.
Brentford drew 2-2 at Bournemouth on Saturday after Kevin Schade scored twice. Yehor Yarmoliuk supplied the cross for his first goal before Schade punished a poor pass from goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic to restore parity after the interval.
Brentford have collected six points through one win and three draws. They opened with a 3-0 victory over Tottenham before sharing the points with Leeds United, Sunderland and Bournemouth.
The Bees began their EFL Cup campaign with a 6-1 win at Birmingham City. They also reached the quarter-finals last season before Manchester City ended their run.
Reading are expected to use Jacob Brown as the central striker, supported by Randell Williams, George Earthy and Daniel Kyerewaa. Liam Fraser and Charlie Savage should form the midfield partnership.
Brentford's possible lineup includes several changes. Callum Wilson is expected to lead the attack, with Jaidon Anthony, Fabio Carvalho and Dango Ouattara behind him. Vitaly Janelt and Yarmoliuk are in line to start in central midfield.
How the bookies view it
Reading are 9/1, implying a 10.0% chance of winning. The draw is 19/4, representing 17.4%, while Brentford are 10/29, carrying an implied probability of 74.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2/5, giving the selection an implied probability of 71.4%. Under 2.5 is available at 2/1, representing 33.3%.
Both teams to score is 4/6 for yes, implying 60.0%. No is priced at 6/5, carrying an implied probability of 45.5%.
Head to head: Bees have a strong record over the Royals
Brentford have won six of the last 10 meetings, with Reading recording two victories and two matches ending level.
The Bees have won the last four encounters, scoring 10 goals and conceding two. Three of those victories came by at least two goals.
Brentford have also won on their last two visits to Reading, recording 3-1 and 3-0 victories. Eight of the 10 meetings produced at least two match goals.
Player to watch: Vitaly Janelt to control the midfield
Vitaly Janelt has provided an attacking contribution from midfield during Brentford's unbeaten start.
The German has scored twice from three shots, placing two attempts on target and generating 0.50 xG. He has also created four chances and recorded 0.32 xA across 270 minutes.
The 28-year-old is expected to partner Yarmoliuk in midfield. His ability to support attacks without leaving the centre unprotected should help Brentford control the territory against League One opposition.
Predicted lineups
Reading (4-2-3-1): Pereira, Ahmed, Masterson, Ward, Roberts, Fraser, Savage, Williams, Earthy, Kyerewaa, Brown.
Brentford (4-2-3-1): Kelleher, Hickey, Ajer, Schuster, Henry, Janelt, Yarmoliuk, Anthony, Carvalho, Ouattara, Wilson.
Anything else catch the eye
Reading's league results are supported by strong underlying numbers. They have produced 10.55 xG and allowed 4.76 xGA, giving them control of 69% of the combined chance quality across five matches.
The standard of opposition remains important when comparing the teams. Brentford have faced four Premier League sides and generated 7.64 xG, 68 shots and 13 big chances. They have scored seven goals and found the net in every match.
Their defensive record is less dominant. Opponents have produced 6.20 xGA and 21 shots on target, while Brentford have surrendered a lead in each of their last three games.
Reading's defeat at Cambridge showed the concern against crosses. Both second-half goals came from headers, including the winner following a corner. Brentford's opener at Bournemouth also arrived when Schade headed in Yarmoliuk's delivery.
The possible away lineup retains Premier League experience throughout the team. Wilson offers movement through the centre, while Carvalho, Anthony and Ouattara should give Brentford several routes into the Reading penalty area.
Reading's attacking numbers make the handicap more demanding than the league positions suggest. The case rests on Brentford creating a wider margin through their deeper squad, previous-round performance and ability to exploit the hosts' aerial weakness.
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