It seems that we are attracting a lot of poor rides during this flat season, and the ride on Snellen was another.
I'm not going to sound deluded and say that Snellen would have won if Billy Lee didn't mess around on the rail, but it still doesn't take away from the fact that the ride was extremely poor. The winner was impressive, and as expected, he was well-supported in the market. If Snellen was 10/1 when tipped up, I would have tipped her as EW, but she was 5/1 last night.
Tyrrhenian Thunder 5/1 – Pontefract 2.53
If Pontefract gets the amount of rain that the weather forecast suggests, the ground is going to be on the very soft side of things. With these horses being young and inexperienced, I think backing a horse who has experience on the surface is going to be a huge advantage.
There are a few horses in this that have run on soft/good to soft, but Tyrrhenian Thunder was a winner on his debut on heavy ground a month ago. Adrian Keatley is a trainer who goes under the radar, and his two-year-olds have been one of his main sources of winners for a few seasons now. His runner is 5/1 for this, yet has a strong pedigree and has form on a slow surface. Also, he is going up by an extra furlong today and is on a stiff track, both of which should bring out further improvement.
I'm not sure why Hector Crouch hasn't made the journey up to Pontefract for the ride on King High, but that has to be a negative if you are thinking about backing him.
Dandy Magic 10/3 – Pontefract 3.23
This race is a problem for me, as I had to decide between two previous selections (Stormy Impact & Dandy Magic). In the end, I sided with Dandy Magic.
She did not enjoy the run of the race at Musselburgh last time out, and I am convinced that she was the best horse/best handicapped in the race. She gets on well with a slow surface, and Lauren Young taking off 5lbs makes her an attractive bet in this tough handicap.
Stall 6 isn't as much of a concern as it normally would be, as when the ground deteriorates at Pontefract they tend to stay towards the middle of the track, which gives plenty of space for the rear runners.
I think the main issue is if they don't go a good gallop and the front runner stacks them up, which is a potent tactic around Pontefract. If she gets a solid gallop, I think Dandy Magic will have a great chance, and it'll be a shootout between her and Stormy Impact.
GambleAware