Newcastle United host Liverpool at St James' Park on Sunday, with kick-off at 4.30pm. The fixture repeats last season's opening-weekend meeting and marks Alexander Isak's first return to his former ground since completing a then British-record £125m move to Liverpool, although the clubs have already met twice since his departure.
Newcastle finished last season with 10 wins, two draws and seven defeats from 19 home games, scoring 36 goals and conceding 30. Their underlying performances were far less dramatic than those totals suggest, with an xG of 1.41 and an xGA of 1.46 both ranking 11th in the Premier League. Their home xG ratio of 0.49 placed them 12th, producing a mid-table process despite the high-scoring results.
Both teams scored in 79% of Newcastle's home matches, the highest rate in the division, while 79% also finished over 2.5 goals. Their games averaged a league-high 3.47 goals, with Newcastle failing to score in only 5% but keeping clean sheets in just 16%. That combination created regular chances at both ends rather than sustained home control.
Liverpool recorded seven wins, three draws and nine defeats across 19 away fixtures, scoring 29 goals and conceding 33. Their underlying numbers were much stronger than the results, with a 1.64 away xG ranking third and their 1.24 xGA placing fifth. An xG ratio of 0.57 was the fourth-best away figure in the league.
Their matches followed a similar scoring pattern to Newcastle's. Both teams scored in 68%, while 74% finished over 2.5 goals and the average of 3.26 was the joint-highest away figure in the division. Liverpool failed to score in only 11% of their away games but kept clean sheets in 26%.
Newcastle's season-long xPTS of 51.44 was slightly higher than their actual total of 49, suggesting their performances were marginally better than the final table showed. Liverpool's 61.07 xPTS was close to their return of 60, making their finishing position a fair reflection of their underlying level.
Both clubs have since changed managers. Andoni Iraola has replaced Arne Slot at Liverpool, while Matthias Jaissle begins his first job in English football after leaving Al Ahli to take charge of Newcastle.
The hosts have suffered the heavier summer losses, with Sandro Tonali joining Tottenham for £93m, Bruno Guimaraes moving to Arsenal for £75m and Anthony Gordon completing an £68m transfer to Barcelona. Newcastle have responded by signing Bazoumana Toure, Aladji Bamba, Lukas Hornicek and Sean Steur, but Jaissle must rebuild a team that has lost three established starters.
Liverpool's recruitment has been less extensive, with Jeremy Jacquet arriving from Rennes for £55m and Victor Munoz joining from Osasuna for £34m. Mohamed Salah's departure represents the biggest change, while Andy Robertson has also left the club.
Newcastle completed pre-season with a 1-1 draw against Strasbourg before losing on penalties. William Osula scored during the first half, but Jaissle used a heavily rotated side and handed debuts to Ewen Jaouen, Bamba and Toure, limiting the value of the performance when assessing his likely starting team.
Joelinton has been ruled out for several weeks, while Valentino Livramento is not ready after completing only one partial training session. Dan Burn and Lewis Miley are further doubts after playing only 45 minutes each during pre-season, with Jaissle admitting his starting line-up remained undecided on the eve of the match.
Liverpool finished their preparations with a 2-0 win over Como at Anfield, with Cody Gakpo and debutant Jacquet scoring either side of half-time. Jacquet played the opening 45 minutes before Ronald Araujo replaced him, leaving some uncertainty over Iraola's preferred defensive partnership.
Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni and Joe Gomez are unavailable, while Curtis Jones is completing a move to Inter Milan. Iraola has identified Trey Nyoni as an option to replace Jones and admitted Liverpool are not yet at full strength, although he believes they remain capable of winning while adapting to his methods.
How the bookies view it
Newcastle are 14/5, implying a 26.3% chance of winning. The draw is 29/10 at 25.6%, while Liverpool are 19/20 favourites and carry an implied probability of 51.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/2, implying 66.7%, with under 2.5 available at 17/10 and carrying a 37.0% probability. Both teams to score is 9/20 at 69.0%, while both teams to score no is 15/8 at 34.8%.
Head to head: Liverpool strong record at St James' Park
Newcastle have not beaten Liverpool at home in the Premier League since recording a 2-0 victory in December 2015. Across the past 24 league meetings dating back to 2013, Liverpool have won 16 and Newcastle only two, with six draws.
Newcastle did beat Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final in March 2025, but last season's league meetings both went Iraola's way. Liverpool won 3-2 at St James' Park on the opening weekend before completing the double with a 4-1 victory at Anfield in January.
Player to watch: Alexander Isak to come back and haunt the home fans
Alexander Isak scored 21 and 23 goals during his final two seasons at Newcastle before joining Liverpool for £125m. His first campaign at Anfield was disrupted, producing only three goals and one assist from eight starts and 14 appearances.
Isak played 699 minutes and featured in only four of Liverpool's final 20 league matches following a lengthy mid-season absence. He is still expected to lead the attack on his return to St James' Park, where the reaction from the home support should add further intensity to the occasion.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle United (4-2-3-1): Hornicek; Dedic, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Ramsey, Bamba; Elanga, Wissa, Barnes; Osula.
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Frimpong, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Ngumoha, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak.
Anything else catch the eye?
The strongest signals point towards goals rather than either side controlling the game. Newcastle produced the league's highest home scoring average and best home both teams to score rate despite ranking in mid-table for xG, xGA and xG ratio. Liverpool's away process was stronger, but their fixtures still produced the joint-highest scoring average and a 68% both teams to score rate.
Summer changes add to the uncertainty. Newcastle have lost three important players from the spine of their team and are adapting to a new manager, while Liverpool travel without four players and remain unsure of their first-choice central defensive partnership.
Newcastle scored in 95% of their home matches but kept clean sheets in only 16%, while Liverpool failed to score in only 11% of their away fixtures. Those figures provide a stronger foundation than the result market, particularly with both teams entering a new tactical era.
The bet is both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 3/4, implying a 57.1% chance. Newcastle and Liverpool regularly combined attacking threat with defensive vulnerability last season, and neither squad looks settled enough to expect a more controlled contest here.
Newcastle Utd vs Liverpool Betting Tips & Predictions
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