Newcastle United host Everton at St James' Park on Monday, with kick-off at 20:00 UK time. The Premier League encounter arrives four days after Everton knocked the Magpies out of the EFL Cup with a 3-1 victory. Matthias Jaissle's side have an immediate opportunity to respond, although recent performances suggest another competitive meeting between these clubs.
Newcastle secured a 2-0 victory at Crystal Palace last weekend, but the underlying statistics were less convincing. The Magpies generated 1.11 xG from 10 shots, with only two attempts on target. Palace recorded 17 shots, four on target and 1.83 xG, demonstrating how Newcastle's clean sheet owed something to their opponents' finishing.
That victory followed a 1-0 home defeat against Aston Villa, leaving Newcastle with only two wins from their last six matches across all competitions. Their attacking record has been more encouraging, with at least two goals scored in five of eight Premier League fixtures.
Everton have experienced similar inconsistency. David Moyes' side suffered a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal last weekend, producing 0.56 xG from eight shots. Arsenal dominated the attacking statistics, registering 20 attempts and 2.39 xG.
The Toffees also lost 2-0 against Chelsea earlier in October, although their 2-2 draw at Hull demonstrated greater attacking potential. Everton generated 1.79 xG from 15 attempts, with seven shots on target.
Thursday's cup encounter provided a significant improvement. James Garner opened the scoring before Hayden Hackney doubled Everton's advantage. Thierno Barry added a third after the interval, while Dan Burn headed Newcastle's consolation in the closing stages.
Both managers have injury concerns. Newcastle's Lewis Miley and Matias Fernandez-Pardo are doubtful, while Valentino Livramento and Ewen Jaouen remain sidelined. Everton have concerns over Jarrad Branthwaite's concussion, while Jack Grealish is also doubtful following illness and his disciplinary absence.
How the bookies view it
Newcastle are favourites at 13/10, representing an implied probability of 43.5%. Everton are available at 2/1, equivalent to 33.3%, while the draw is priced at 27/10, carrying a 27.0% implied probability.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/11, representing an implied probability of 57.9%. Both teams to score is shorter at 8/13, equivalent to 61.9%.
Head to head: Toffees hold strong advantage of the Magpies
Everton have enjoyed considerable success against Newcastle in recent meetings. The Toffees secured a 3-2 Premier League victory at St James' Park in February 2026, having previously won 1-0 at the same ground in May 2025.
Newcastle have therefore struggled to make home advantage count against Monday's opponents. The latest meeting also demonstrated Everton's ability to punish defensive mistakes, with three different players finding the net.
Jaissle has limited preparation time to address those problems, while Moyes must decide how many players to retain from Thursday's successful starting lineup.
Player to watch: Thierno Barry main threat for the visitors
Thierno Barry has scored three Premier League goals this season, although his underlying attacking statistics suggest he has deserved a greater return.
The Everton striker has accumulated 5.08 xG across 685 league minutes, registering 27 shots and 12 efforts on target. Those figures work out at 3.55 shots and 1.58 shots on target per 90 minutes, demonstrating his regular involvement in Everton's attacking play.
Barry registered five shots and 0.90 xG against Hull City, scoring once. He also recorded five attempts against Tottenham, generating 0.67 xG.
His highest individual xG return came against Bournemouth, when three attempts produced 1.48 xG without a goal. The difference between his actual goals and xG suggests Barry has underperformed his finishing opportunities, but his ability to reach dangerous positions remains encouraging.
Predicted lineups
Newcastle United (4-2-3-1): Hornicek; Dedic, Schar, Burn, Hall; Gonzalez, Joelinton; Murphy, Willock, Barnes; Osula.
Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Rohl, O'Brien, Tarkowski, Mykolenko; Garner, Hackney; Johnson, Dewsbury-Hall, George; Barry.
Anything else catch the eye?
Newcastle's defensive performances at St James' Park provide an important consideration when assessing Monday's goals markets. The Magpies average 2.04 xGA at home and concede 2.25 big chances per fixture. Those numbers suggest visiting teams regularly create opportunities, even when Newcastle produce positive results.
Everton's away defensive statistics are similarly concerning. The Toffees concede 1.73 xGA on their travels, leaving opponents with opportunities to generate chances.
Newcastle have scored at least twice in three of their four home league matches, giving them a strong platform to contribute to the overall goals total.
There is a considerable difference between the teams' results in the over 2.5 goals market.
Newcastle have exceeded that line in five of eight Premier League fixtures, representing 62.5%. Everton have done so in only two of eight, equivalent to 25%. Everton's away attacking average of 1.20 xG provides another reason for caution. Their league performances have not consistently produced enough goals to support high-scoring encounters.
Nevertheless, Newcastle's defensive weaknesses present an opportunity for the visitors to improve their attacking return. The Magpies' ability to score multiple goals at home is particularly relevant against an Everton side which has struggled to restrict opposition chances.
The cup result adds further encouragement, although the wider statistical picture provides a stronger basis for the selection than one recent meeting. Newcastle's attacking consistency, combined with the defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, supports another contest featuring several goals.
Newcastle Utd vs Everton Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
- Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction and Betting Tips – 01/11/2026
- Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction and Betting Tips – 31/10/2026
- Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction and Betting Tips – 31/10/2026
- Hull City vs Ipswich Town Prediction and Betting Tips – 31/10/2026
- Coventry City vs Sunderland Prediction and Betting Tips – 31/10/2026
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