Dalston Lad 7/2 – Worcester 1.20
If the top two in the market make the transition to fences in seamless fashion, then we could be in for a great beginners' chase.
It's understandable to see Johnny's Jury as the favourite, but seeing the difference between the top two in the market seems too much. Dalston Lad showed that he is a very talented horse last year when winning a Grade 2 over hurdles. Obviously, that isn't on the same level as being the Albert Bartlett winner like Johnny's Jury was, but jumping a fence is totally different.
Dalston Lad had experience from PTP races, and he was impressive in his only run in that type of racing, so 7/2 seems too large.
Amelia Earhart 11/4 – Curragh 2.37
This is a tricky race, as you have last year's winner lining up, and a bunch of three-year-olds who could improve. In the end, I went with Amelia Earhart, who has been consistent for most of the season, but might be able to win a race now that she is running over two miles.
She doesn't look lost over this type of trip, and she ran with credit on both of her recent outings over two miles in Group 1s. This is a step down in grade, and 11/4 on offer definitely looks like value.
Theflyingking 9/4 – Cork 2.15
When Willie Mullins has an unexposed horse at the top of the market in races like this, the race becomes avoided for the most part unless you're backing the favourite. I don't think this race should be seen in that way, and I think the favourite is definitely beatable.
Theflyingking had some strong pieces of form in his first season over hurdles, and if he arrived to Cork without his last run, he'd be half the price he is. There's no hiding away from the fact that he was poor last time out and was easily beaten when he was an odds-on shot, but it clearly wasn't a true showing.
Prior to last run in April, he was second to I'll Sort That, who subsequently won a Grade 1, and he was only 0.75 lengths behind him on that day. We haven't seen him since April, and we haven't seen him run over this far. He was going to be a comfortable winner over 2m 6.5f last October, but took a tumble at the last. He was a PTP winner over three miles, so I'm confident he'll stay.
Love Me Tender 9/4 – Cork 2.50
Love Me Tender has to prove that he can reverse the form with Frankie John, who was lengths ahead of him when the pair met at Galway, but Love Me Tender is still young and was impressive last time out.
My selection is trained by Willie Mullins, who can get improvement out of horses in very quick style. He showed that he was better than the Galway effort when winning at Listowel last time out when upped in trip, and based on that, I can see him reversing the form.
Today's race sees him drop back in trip by a couple of furlongs, but it's still two more than the Galway race, so I think he'll be perfectly fine.
GambleAware