Manchester City begin their EFL Cup campaign at the Etihad Stadium on Thursday where Championship side Norwich City provide the opposition at 19:30. The hosts enter the competition in the third round, while Norwich City have already negotiated two ties.
Manchester City have made a perfect start to the Premier League season. They beat Bournemouth 2-1, Crystal Palace 4-1 and Coventry City 1-0 before recording a 1-0 victory over Manchester United.
The underlying numbers support their strong start. Manchester City have generated 7.45 xG while allowing 2.74 xGA, giving them a 0.73 xG ratio. They have also produced 52 shots, including 40 from inside the penalty area, and created 14 big chances.
The win at Manchester United was less dominant. Manchester City generated 0.77 xG from six shots and allowed 0.83 xGA from 16 attempts, but their second consecutive clean sheet secured the points.
Norwich City started their EFL Cup run with a 4-1 victory over Milton Keynes Dons. A 2-1 win against Cardiff City followed in the second round, giving them six goals across their two cup matches.
Their Championship campaign has been less consistent. Norwich City have won three and lost four of their opening seven fixtures, scoring and conceding 13 goals.
The visitors have generated 12.58 xG from 110 shots, with 40 efforts on target and 24 big chances. They have allowed 11.43 xGA, 93 shots and 20 big chances, pointing towards regular opportunities at both ends.
Norwich City arrive after losing 4-3 at Middlesbrough. They scored three goals from 1.64 xG but allowed 2.10 xGA, 17 shots and five big chances. The defeat ended a run of three consecutive Championship victories.
Manchester City are without Jeremy Doku because of a calf injury. The hosts are expected to rotate while retaining senior players. Erling Haaland should lead the attack, with Iliman Ndiaye and Antoine Semenyo operating behind him.
Norwich City are missing Lucien Mahovo, Ali Ahmed and Mirko Topic. Jovon Makama is expected to start through the middle, supported by Edmond-Paris Maghoma, Oscar Schwartau and Anthony Musaba.
How the bookies view it
Manchester City are 2/13, carrying an implied probability of 86.7%. The draw is 17/2, representing 10.5%, while Norwich City are 33/2, giving them a 5.7% chance of winning.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2/7, implying a probability of 77.8%. Under 2.5 is available at 14/5, representing 26.3%.
Both teams to score is 39/40 for yes, carrying an implied probability of 50.6%. No is priced at 20/23, representing 53.5%.
Head to head: City strong record against the Canaries
Manchester City have won six of the last nine meetings. Norwich City have recorded one victory, with two matches finishing goalless.
The hosts have won the last three by an aggregate score of 14-0. Manchester City have also kept clean sheets in seven of the nine fixtures, with both teams scoring only twice.
Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of those matches. Manchester City have won all four recent home meetings, scoring 19 goals and conceding once.
The latest meeting finished 4-0 to Manchester City at Carrow Road in February 2022. Their last three home victories in this fixture ended 5-0, 5-0 and 7-0.
Player to watch: Erling Haaland to find the Championship defence kind
Across the three matches covered by the player workbook, Erling Haaland scored three goals in 270 Premier League minutes. He generated 2.46 xG from 14 shots, placing eight on target.
The striker is averaging 4.67 shots and 2.67 efforts on target per game. His return also includes 0.50 xA and one chance created, showing his main contribution remains inside the penalty area.
Norwich City have conceded 20 big chances in seven Championship matches. Haaland's movement against a changed defence should give Manchester City a clear target for their possession and wide deliveries.
Predicted lineups
Manchester City (4-2-3-1): Rulli, Khusanov, Reis, Guehi, Lewis, Kovacic, Bouaddi, Allan, Ndiaye, Semenyo, Haaland.
Norwich City (4-2-3-1): Grimshaw, Stacey, McConville, Cordoba, Chrisene, Wright, Mattsson, Maghoma, Schwartau, Musaba, Makama.
Anything else catch the eye
Manchester City's proposed lineup still contains Haaland, Semenyo, Ndiaye, Mateo Kovacic and Marc Guehi. Their depth should allow them to control possession without relying on the regular league starting team.
Abdukodir Khusanov and Guehi provide experience in central defence, while Rico Lewis offers another established option at full-back. That defensive base strengthens the case for Manchester City limiting the visitors.
Norwich City's attacking numbers deserve respect. They average 1.80 xG and have scored 13 Championship goals, while their two EFL Cup victories contained six goals.
The difficulty lies in transferring those numbers to the Etihad. Manchester City have allowed 2.74 xGA and 11 shots on target across four games, conceding only twice.
Norwich City's expected attack also differs from their regular Championship lineup. Makama has played only 19 league minutes, recording two shots and no effort on target. Maghoma has made one appearance, while Schwartau and Musaba have produced two league goals between them.
Manchester City should spend long periods in the Norwich City half, reducing the visitors' possession and attacking volume. The hosts have kept clean sheets in seven of the last nine meetings and conceded once across four recent home fixtures against Norwich City.
Manchester City vs Norwich City Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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