Coventry City and Aston Villa meet in the EFL Cup at the Coventry Building Society Arena on Wednesday with kick-off scheduled for 20:00. Coventry eased past Plymouth in the last round whilst Villa enter the competition in this round due to European commitments. Both sides have suffered poor starts to their Premier League campaigns.
The cup offers a break from difficult league results. Coventry have struggled after promotion, while Aston Villa have failed to find consistency following major changes to their squad during the summer.
Villa's form requires context. Several established players left during the transfer window, forcing the club to rebuild important areas of the team. The turnover has affected their continuity in possession, defensive organisation and attacking combinations.
Injuries have increased the disruption. Amadou Onana, Leon Goretzka and Brian Madjo are unavailable, while Pau Torres and Matty Cash are doubtful. Villa still have individual quality, but several members of the expected side have spent limited competitive time together.
Coventry have also found the opening weeks difficult. Their performances have reflected the challenge of stepping up to the Premier League, with opponents creating regular chances and forcing them into long periods without possession.
The hosts have their own injury problems. Frank Onyeka, Kaine Kesler-Hayden, Luke Woolfenden, Josh Eccles and Haji Wright are unavailable. Wright's absence removes an established attacking option, while the midfield loses depth without Onyeka and Eccles.
Both managers are expected to make changes without selecting entirely inexperienced teams. Coventry should retain Matt Grimes and Victor Torp in central midfield, with Gus Hamer operating behind Ebrima Cherif.
Milan van Ewijk and Jay Dasilva should provide the width from wing-back. Joel Latibeaudiere, Bobby Thomas and David Agboola Mfuni are expected to form the back three in front of Daniel Bentley.
Aston Villa should start Marco Bizot in goal. Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Tyrone Mings and Matteo Ruggeri form an experienced defence, with Boubacar Kamara and Lamare Bogarde protecting them.
John McGinn, Emiliano Buendia and Malick Mbaye are expected to support Tammy Abraham. That gives Villa experience in the attacking positions, although their summer changes and poor start leave questions about how fluently the side will combine.
How the bookies view it
Coventry City are 205/100, carrying an implied probability of 32.8%. The draw is 27/10, representing 27%, while Aston Villa are 13/10, giving them a 43.5% chance of winning.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/6, implying a probability of 60%. Under 2.5 is available at 5/4, representing 44.4%.
Both teams to score is 4/7 for yes, carrying an implied probability of 63.6%. No is priced at 6/4, representing 40%.
Head to head: First meeting for 25 years
These clubs have not met competitively since Aston Villa recorded a 3-2 Premier League victory in May 2001.
Villa have won seven of the last 10 meetings. Coventry have recorded two victories, with one match finishing level.
Both teams scored in eight of those games, while eight also produced over 2.5 goals. Aston Villa have won three of the last five meetings played at Coventry, with the hosts winning once.
Player to watch: Gus Hamer to force his way in the side?
Gus Hamer gives Coventry their main creative threat between midfield and attack.
Gustavo Hamer has played only 32 minutes across Coventry City's opening three Premier League matches. His limited involvement has produced no shots, goals or chances created, with 0.00 xG and 0.02 xA.
His defensive return includes one tackle and three fouls committed. Those figures offer little evidence of attacking form, but his expected start gives him an opportunity to establish a larger role.
Hamer should operate behind Ebrima Cherif, with Matt Grimes and Victor Torp covering the deeper midfield positions. Coventry will need more attacking output from Hamer if they are to trouble Aston Villa.
Predicted lineups
Coventry City (3-4-2-1): Bentley, Latibeaudiere, Thomas, Mfuni, Van Ewijk, Grimes, Torp, Dasilva, Tchaouna, Hamer, Cherif.
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Bizot, Wan-Bissaka, Harwood-Bellis, Mings, Ruggeri, Bogarde, Kamara, McGinn, Buendia, Mbaye, Abraham.
Anything else catch the eye
The goals markets appear to place more weight on the attacking players than the early performances of either side.
Coventry City should defend with a compact back three, supported by Matt Grimes and Victor Torp. Their priority will be staying in the tie after a difficult start to the Premier League season.
Aston Villa should control possession through Boubacar Kamara, Lamare Bogarde and Emiliano Buendia. Their summer turnover has disrupted the combinations which previously helped them move the ball quickly through midfield.
Tammy Abraham provides a central target, but he needs service from John McGinn, Buendia and Malick Mbaye. Coventry City's deeper shape should reduce the space available around the penalty area.
Aston Villa have enough defensive experience to restrict the hosts. Tyrone Mings, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Kamara provide protection around Marco Bizot, while Haji Wright's absence leaves Coventry City without an established attacking option.
The historical goals record carries limited weight because the clubs have not met competitively since 2001. Current form, summer changes and expected rotation provide more relevant evidence.
Aston Villa have the stronger squad, but their departures, injuries and poor start weaken the case for an away win. Coventry City should favour a controlled contest, while Aston Villa need stability after a disrupted opening to the campaign.
GambleAware