Macclesfield host Brentford at Moss Rose on Monday night in the FA Cup fourth round, with a place in the last 16 at stake and the spotlight firmly on the National League North side.
Macclesfield arrive sixth in their division after 28 games and remain in the promotion mix. Their attacking numbers underline why. They average 1.50 xG per match with a positive xGD of +0.20, scoring 1.75 goals per game.
In the last 10 league matches they are W7-D0-L3, collecting 21 points at 2.10 PPG. At home their recent form reads W5-D0-L1 in the last six, with 15 goals scored and six conceded. Across the season 61% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, rising to 63% at Moss Rose. In the previous round they eliminated Crystal Palace with 13 shots and nine efforts from outside the box, combining intensity with belief from set plays.
Brentford travel as a Premier League side sitting seventh after 26 matches. Over the last 10 league games they are W6-D2-L2, scoring 18 and conceding 10. Their last four matches show 1.92 xG and 1.59 xGA per game, with total xG at 3.51. They have generated 7.8 shots inside the box per match in that spell and 2.87 set piece xG across four fixtures. Away from home their season averages read 1.49 xG and 1.16 xGA, with 3.67 shots on target for and 4.00 against per match. Brentford arrive in form, but Macclesfield’s rise and recent upset ensure this tie carries genuine edge.
How the bookies view it: Visitors huge favourites
Macclesfield are priced at 27/2 in the match winner market, which equates to a 6.9% implied chance of a home victory. The draw is available at 6/1, representing a 14.3% probability, while Brentford are priced at 1/4, implying an 80.0% chance of an away win.
The goals markets suggest a high-scoring tie. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 5/11, which equates to a 68.8% implied probability. Both teams to score is available at 21/20, representing a 48.8% implied chance of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: First meeting
First meeting between these two sides.
Players to watch: Lewis Potter to star again
Keane Lewis-Potter’s recent output supports a 1+ shot on target angle.
In his last four appearances he has recorded 12 shots, five of which were on target. That includes four shots on target from six attempts in the FA Cup win over Sheffield Wednesday, where he led the line and scored. He also hit two shots on target from three efforts away at Wolves, scoring twice, and added another goal against Arsenal.
Across those fixtures he is averaging three shots per game and 1.25 shots on target per match. With good minutes across those games, he is consistently staying on the pitch long enough to generate volume.
Given his advanced roles, one shot on target is a low line based on current involvement and shooting frequency.
Predicted line-ups
Macclesfield FC (4-1-4-1): Dearnley; Fensome, Heathcote, Borthwick-Jackson, Pasiek; Dawson; Edmondson, Kay, Duffy, Buckley-Ricketts; Mellor.
Brentford (4-3-3): Valdimarsson; Hickey, Van den Berg, Pinnock, Henry; Jensen, Henderson, Yarmolyuk; Damsgaard, Donovan, Lewis-Potter.
Anything else catch the eye?
Brentford to win and both teams to score stands out given the profile of this tie and the underlying numbers on both sides.
Macclesfield’s approach at Moss Rose is proactive. They average 1.50 xG per match across the season and 1.75 goals scored per game, with 61% of fixtures finishing over 2.5 goals. At home that figure rises to 63%. In the last six on their own ground they have scored 15 times, and against Crystal Palace they produced 13 shots while creating constant pressure from set plays. Their intensity and willingness to shoot from range mean they are unlikely to sit deep for 90 minutes.
Brentford arrive with stronger overall metrics. In the last 10 Premier League matches they are W6-D2-L2 with 18 goals scored. Across the last four they average 1.92 xG, with total xG at 3.51, and have produced 7.8 shots inside the box per game. They have also generated 2.87 set piece xG in that spell, a key edge against a non league defence. Away from home they post 1.49 xG per match across the season.
Macclesfield’s defensive numbers show 1.30 xGA per match and 1.43 goals conceded per game, which suggests chances will come for a top flight attack. At the same time, Brentford concede 1.16 xGA away and allow 4.00 shots on target per game on the road. With both sides trending toward open games, Brentford’s quality should tell, but the hosts have the tools to get on the scoresheet.
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