Portman Road will host Ipswich Town and Sunderland on Saturday, with kick-off at 3pm. Ipswich begin their first season back in the Premier League after winning promotion from the Championship, while Sunderland look to build on a seventh-place finish that exceeded most expectations.
Ipswich bounced straight back following relegation and produced the strongest home numbers in the Championship. Their 49.92 home xPTS ranked first in the division, built on averages of 1.91 xG and 0.77 xGA, giving them a league-high home xG ratio of 0.71.
Both teams scored in 54.5% of their home matches, while Ipswich failed to score in only 9.1% and kept clean sheets in 40.9%. Kieran McKenna oversaw an instant return to the Premier League before stepping away from football with Gary O'Neil coming in to rebuild of the squad.
Ipswich have supported their promotion with significant investment, spending around GBP150m during the summer. Chief executive Mark Ashton has confirmed the club expects to move towards GBP200m before the transfer window closes, with much of the business focused on adding Premier League experience and physicality.
Sunderland's away form was one of their main weaknesses last season. They won five of their 19 matches on the road, averaging only 0.99 xG while conceding 1.54 xGA. Both teams scored in 47% of those fixtures, while Sunderland failed to score in 42% and kept clean sheets in only 21%.
Their seventh-place finish on 54 points also represented a sizeable overperformance against an xPTS total of 41.65. Sunderland were therefore almost 12.5 points ahead of their underlying return, raising questions about whether they will repeat last season's results without improving their performances.
Regis Le Bris must now manage Sunderland's first European campaign in 53 years alongside their domestic schedule. Their recruitment has been modest given the additional demands, with a small number of arrivals joining on free transfers. Thomas Meunier is the leading addition, while the only significant fee involving Sunderland was the £18m received from Rennes for Eliezer Mayenda.
Ipswich completed their pre-season programme with a 4-2 victory away at Union Berlin, with Jack Clarke, Emersonn and captain Dara O'Shea among the scorers. Azor Matusiwa and Jack Taylor remain unavailable through injury.
Sunderland ended their preparations with a 2-1 comeback win against Stade Rennais. Brian Brobbey equalised after taking advantage of a loose header before Trai Hume volleyed home the winner.
Le Bris has acknowledged the difficulty of Sunderland's opening assignment, pointing to Ipswich's previous Premier League experience and the advantage created by their first home game following promotion. He also stressed the importance of retaining the identity and togetherness that drove Sunderland's unexpected success last season.
How the bookies view it
Ipswich are 9/5, implying a 35.7% chance of winning. The draw is priced at 12/5 and carries an implied probability of 29.4%, while Sunderland are 7/4 at 36.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1/1, implying a 50% chance, with under 2.5 priced at 10/11 and carrying a 52.4% probability. Both teams to score is 31/40 at 56.3%, while both teams to score no is 11/10 at 47.6%.
Head to head: Tractor Boys completed the double in the Championship
Ipswich and Sunderland have met 21 times in all competitions since 2000, including one FA Cup tie. Across their 20 league meetings, Sunderland have recorded nine wins compared with Ipswich's eight, with the remaining three ending level.
The previous five meetings have produced two wins for each side and one draw, showing little recent advantage for either club. Ipswich won the latest game at Portman Road 2-1 in January 2024.
Player to watch: Julio Enciso is back with the Tractor Boys
Julio Enciso has recently completed his move to Ipswich and reunites with Gary O'Neil after playing under him at Strasbourg last season. The Paraguay international recorded 12 goals and nine assists across Ligue 1, the Conference League and the Coupe de France.
Enciso helped Strasbourg reach the Conference League semi-finals and the last four of the Coupe de France, operating mainly in attacking midfield. His previous relationship with O'Neil strengthens his prospects of securing an immediate role behind the striker in Ipswich's 4-2-3-1 system.
Predicted line-ups
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Scherpen; O'Shea, Diop, Greaves, Davis; Lukic, Florentino; Fatawu, Enciso, Maeda; Emersonn.
Sunderland (4-3-3): Roefs; Hume, Ballard, O'Nien, Reinildo; Xhaka, Sadiki, Le Fee; Talbi, Angulo, Brobbey.
Anything else catch the eye?
Ipswich's Championship numbers show a side that created chances consistently and rarely failed to score at Portman Road. Their 1.91 home xG was supported by a failed-to-score rate of only 9.1%, although their defensive record was produced at a lower level and has not been tested against Premier League attacks.
Sunderland's away data creates a different concern. Le Bris' side conceded an average of 1.54 xGA on the road, kept clean sheets in only four of 19 matches and finished well ahead of their season-long xPTS. Their defence has not received significant investment despite those weaknesses, while European football places greater demands on the squad.
The fixture also gives Ipswich a clear incentive to attack. This is their first home game following promotion, with Manchester United away and Liverpool at home next on the schedule. Sunderland's own away weakness makes this the most favourable of Ipswich's opening three fixtures.
There are still risks to the goals selection because Ipswich kept clean sheets in 40.9% of their Championship home games and Sunderland failed to score in 42% of their Premier League away fixtures. The change in level, Ipswich's attacking recruitment and Sunderland's defensive numbers provide enough evidence to expect a more open contest.
The bet is over 2.5 goals at 1/1, implying a 50% chance. Ipswich should approach the game positively in front of a full Portman Road, while Sunderland's away defensive record gives the hosts a strong chance of scoring more than once.
Ipswich Town vs Sunderland Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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