Everton host Crystal Palace at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday, with kick-off at 3pm. David Moyes begins his second full season at Everton's new home against a Palace side starting life under Pierre Sage following a disruptive summer.
Everton recorded W6-D5-L8 19 home matches last season, scoring 26 goals and conceding 27. Their performances were built around a defence that ranked far better than the attack, with a home xGA of 1.38 placing sixth in the Premier League compared with a home xG of 1.18 that ranked 17th.
Moyes' side kept clean sheets in 32% of their home games and failed to score in only 21%, while both teams scored in 53%. Their fixtures averaged 2.79 goals, with 53% finishing over 2.5. Everton also received at least two cards in 76% of their home matches.
Palace finished with W7-D3-L9 on the road, scoring 22 and conceding 28. Their underlying away numbers were stronger than Everton's home figures, averaging 1.36 xG and 1.28 xGA, which ranked ninth and seventh respectively.
Both teams scored in 53% of Palace's away games, while they kept a clean sheet in 26% and failed to score at the same rate. Their standout figure was a 63% over 2.5 goals record, with those matches averaging 2.63 goals.
Palace enter the season after losing their head coach and director of football during the same window. Maxence Lacroix joined Chelsea for £52m, while Brennan Johnson completed a move to Everton shortly before the opening weekend.
Pierre Sage arrives from RC Lens following a trophy-winning campaign and has signed Dwight McNeil, Evann Guessand and Anan Khalaili. The issue is preparation time, with much of the Palace squad only coming together during the closing weeks of pre-season.
Their xPTS total of 55.87 was almost 11 points above their actual return of 45 last season, suggesting the final table understated the quality Sage inherited. Several of the people responsible for those performances have since left, reducing the relevance of those numbers heading into this fixture.
Everton have enjoyed a more settled summer under Moyes, spending around £62m and adding Hayden Hackney and Christian Norgaard. Merlin Rohl's loan was also made permanent, with the recruitment focused on improving a midfield and attack that produced too little last season.
Everton will be without James Garner following groin surgery, while Norgaard is also unavailable and Tim Iroegbunam remains doubtful. Moyes' side completed their preparations with a 1-1 draw against Lille, with Iliman Ndiaye scoring from the penalty spot before Hakon Haraldsson equalised in stoppage time.
Jordan Pickford made his first appearance since helping England reach the World Cup semi-finals, while Johnson came off the bench for his Everton debut and twice went close to scoring. Palace ended pre-season with a 2-0 defeat against Freiburg, although captain Dean Henderson has recovered from an ankle injury and should start.
How the bookies view it
Everton are 5/4 favourites, implying a 44.4% chance of winning. The draw is 5/2 at 28.6%, while Crystal Palace are 49/20 at 29.0%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 13/14, implying 51.9%, with both teams to score available at 3/4 and carrying an implied probability of 57.1%.
Head to head: Toffees rarely come unstuck against the Eagles
Everton have won 12 of the previous 25 meetings since 2015, with Crystal Palace winning twice and the other 11 ending level. Palace's latest victory came in March 2022, leaving Everton unbeaten across the subsequent 11 fixtures.
The Toffees have won seven and drawn four during that sequence, including a 2-1 victory at the Hill Dickinson Stadium last October. The most recent meeting finished 2-2 at Selhurst Park in May.
Player to watch: Thierno Barry to finally to step up for hosts
Thierno Barry scored eight goals in 21 league starts during his first season following a GBP27m move from Villarreal. Those goals came from 38 shots, with 14 hitting the target, and the striker has spoken about the difficulty of adapting during his first campaign in England.
His pre-season performances were more encouraging, producing three goals in victories over Dundee, Stuttgart and Newcastle United. Barry is expected to start ahead of Beto and lead an attack that ranked 17th for home xG last season.
Predicted line-ups
Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford; O'Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Hackney, Armstrong; Rohl, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye; Barry.
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Henderson; Riad, Richards, Canvot; Mingueza, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell; Sarr, McNeil; Strand Larsen.
Anything else catch the eye?
Palace's disrupted preparation provides the main betting angle, with Sage admitting his side are not ready for the start of the season. He explained that only two or three likely starters had been available throughout pre-season without injury, leaving limited time to introduce a new system and coaching structure.
Sage has also confirmed Palace need another centre-back following Lacroix's departure, preferably one with Premier League experience. They therefore arrive with an incomplete squad and a defensive unit weakened in the position their new manager has identified as a priority.
The underlying numbers do not provide a straightforward case for opposing Palace. Their away xG ratio of 0.52 was better than Everton's home figure of 0.46, while their 1.36 away xG and 1.28 xGA also compare favourably. The question is how much weight those figures still carry after the departures of their head coach, director of football and first-choice centre-back.
Everton's recruitment has been more settled and focused on weaknesses identified by last season's data. They begin at home with an established manager and familiar structure, while Palace arrive with a new coaching team, an incomplete defence and a head coach who believes they are not ready.
The bet is Everton to win at 6/5, implying a 45.4% chance. The selection rests on the difference in preparation and stability between the clubs rather than last season's raw numbers alone.
Everton vs Crystal Palace Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading
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