Nottingham Forest v Leeds
Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United

, KO: 15:00 , City Ground
Leeds United

Nottingham Forest flirted with relegation on a rollercoaster ride last season but will be hoping for more stability in the new Premier League campaign, which gets underway with a visit from Leeds United.

Owner Evangelos Marinakis went through four managers last term, with Nuno Espirito Santo, Ange Postecoglou and Sean Dyche all axed before Vitor Pereira saw out the season.

All the upheaval led to a disappointing Premier League campaign, although Forest did embark on a run to the Europa League semi-finals before being edged out by eventual winners Aston Villa.

Former Crystal Palace gaffer Oliver Glasner has now taken charge and the Austrian looks like a good appointment after leading the Eagles to FA Cup and Conference League glory.

Nottingham Forest should be stronger in the league under Glasner but this opening clash with Leeds United is far from a gimme.

After winning promotion last summer, Leeds did well to stay up under Daniel Farke and they ended the campaign strongly, losing just six of their last 29 games in all competitions.

Farke has made some shrewd signings this summer and will now be looking to re-establish Leeds as a Premier League force.

How the bookies view it: Forest homing in on the points

The bookies reckon home advantage will give Nottingham Forest the edge in this one, with Bet365 pricing them at 5/4. Leeds United are 21/10 outsiders and the draw pays 23/10.

Recent head to head: Another four-goal thriller?

The last five meetings have all ended in home wins and both matches last term were thrillers. Nottingham Forest won 3-1 at the City Ground in November then Leeds got their revenge at Elland Road, winning by the same scoreline.

Players to watch: Morgan on a mission

Morgan Gibbs-White will be fresh and fired up for Nottingham Forest after missing out on a place in England's World Cup squad. The playmaker is 6/5 with Bet365 for a goal or assist and that looks decent value.

Harry Wilson has been the marquee signing for Leeds United this summer and will be a great addition if he can repeat the form he showed at Fulham last season. The Welshman is 8/5 to score or assist and that could be a popular pick.

Probable line-ups

Defenders Nicola Savona and Murillo are set to miss out for Forest while winger Callum Hudson-Odoi is a doubt.

Leeds United have a pretty clean bill of health, with only midfielder Ilia Gruev a fitness doubt.

Nottingham Forest: Sels, Diomande, Milenkovic, Morato, Aina, Williams, Schlager, Sangare, Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Jesus.

Leeds United: Trafford, Rodon, Bijol, Muharemovic, Bogle, Ampadu, Stach, Justin, Wilson, Calvert-Lewin, Aaronson.

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Under 2.5 goals

An average of 2.26 goals made Nottingham Forest's home fixtures the lowest scoring in the Premier League last season. Their attacking output was the main reason, with a home xG of 1.27 placing them in the bottom half of the division.

Forest also conceded 1.48 xGA per game at the City Ground, leaving little statistical evidence of dominance at either end. Oliver Glasner's appointment should make Forest more robust defensively, particularly after European commitments placed additional demands on the squad last season, but the available home data still points towards caution.

Leeds produced slightly stronger away numbers than their results suggested. They averaged 1.34 xG and conceded 1.37 xGA, with both figures closer to mid-table level than a relegation profile. Those numbers describe a competitive travelling side rather than one regularly involved in open games.

Neither club has transformed its squad during the summer, placing greater weight on the patterns established last season. Forest struggled to create high-quality chances at home, while Leeds usually remained within touching distance on the road. A managerial change at Forest introduces some uncertainty, but the combined data points towards a tight game with limited scoring opportunities.

Anything else catch the eye?

We should see goals in this game, based on the two meetings last term, even though Nottingham Forest are now under new management.

Leeds ground out a 0-0 draw with Glasner's Palace side in London last term but Farke's men won 4-1 when they faced the Eagles at Elland Road. So I'm going to combine BTTS and over 2.5 goals in this one, which pays 6/5 with Bet365.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin should lead the line for Leeds and I like the 5/4 on offer for the striker to be fouled two or more times.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United Betting Tips & Predictions
Morgan Gibbs-White goal or assist
6/5
Bet365
BTTS and over 2.5 goals
6/5
Bet365
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be fouled two or more times
5/4
Bet365
Further Reading
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