Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
, KO: 19:30 , Signal Iduna Park
Whilst all the other German teams are taking their first steps in this season’s DFB-Pokal, Borussia Dortmund are set to host champions Bayern Munich in the Super Cup match at Signal Iduna Park on Saturday.
Both BVB and Bayern have had a busy summer, featuring six friendly matches each against opponents of varying calibre.
Dortmund lost two of their six, but did beat a significant opponent in Arsenal. Bayern started with a surprise defeat to Wehen, but then won each of their five matches, albeit with some defensive struggles.
Borussia Dortmund were extremely active in the transfer market and can boast a total of six incoming signings worth over 100 million euros. Bayern, meanwhile, continued their tradition of wrapping up their business early and making few signings, bringing in only Ismael Saibari and Nathaniel Brown.
After last season, it was perfectly clear that Bayern are in a league of their own in Germany, having broken every possible record. But they still need a little more to return to the top in the Champions League, so expectations of Saibari and Brown will be high.
How the bookies view it: Absolute away advantage for the champions
As always, there are unlikely to be any surprises in the odds, and Bayern Munich are always the favourites in matches against opponents from their domestic leagues.
Borussia Dortmund are priced at around 15/4, whilst Bayern Munich are heavy favourites at 13/20. If you’re expecting a tight final, you can back a draw at 31/10.
Recent head-to-head: The Bavarians have the edge in Super Cup H2Hs
This match will be the 140th official edition of Der Klassiker, with Bayern historically dominating the rivalry with 69 wins to Dortmund’s 33.
If we look solely at Super Cup matches, this will be the 10th time the two sides have met, with eight of the nine encounters to date having taken place since 2012. In these matches, the contest has been more evenly balanced, with Bayern recording five wins and Dortmund four.
BVB have hosted the matches at Signal Iduna Park on six of those occasions, with the teams sharing the wins equally – three each.
Players to watch: Olise and Kane to continue where they left off
With Bayern back in action, we’re resuming our bets on Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Luis Diaz, who have become almost a staple in every round or match.
Kane and Olise were given a longer break due to the World Cup, returning to action with limited playing time in Bayern’s most recent friendly. Luis Diaz, however, featured in four of those matches, scoring one goal in each of the last three.
Having scored 73 goals for Bayern Munich and the England national team within the space of a year, we simply have to back Harry Kane to score here. Last season alone, he scored three against Dortmund. A large proportion of those goals came from Olise's assists, so that’s also a significant factor.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Gadou, Mane, Bensebaini, Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson, Karetsas, Inacio, Guirassy
Bayern Munich: Neuer, Laimer, Tah, Min-jae, Davies, Kimmich, Saibari, Pavlovic, Musiala, Diaz, Kane
Anything else catch the eye?
Only one thing is certain in this match: it will be a spectacle. Everyone expects Bayern, the 11-time Super Cup winners, to dominate as they did throughout last season and to lift the trophy once again.
But I wouldn’t take a chance on these odds, because we’ve seen quite a few gaps in their defence during their friendlies. Dortmund’s defence is by no means more impressive, however, so I’ll go for a combination of Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals.
I also reckon that Dortmund’s chances depend to a large extent on Kobel’s performance. He’ll have a lot more work to do than Neuer, so I reckon the line for 4+ saves is also worth a bet.
And lastly, as I expect a strong performance from both sides, with a bunch of goals, I see a lot of value in the Over 9.5 shots on target pick.
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