Fulham welcome Hull City to Craven Cottage on Saturday with the Premier League fixture kicking off at 15:00. The hosts remain without a victory after six matches, although their underlying attacking performances suggest they have deserved considerably more than their two points.
Fulham have struggled to convert promising performances into results. Their home attacking numbers are particularly encouraging, with 6.89 expected goals generated across three fixtures at Craven Cottage, an average of 2.29 xG per match.
Their 3-2 defeat against Crystal Palace highlighted the problem. Fulham generated 3.88 xG but failed to secure a result despite creating enough opportunities to win comfortably. They also produced 1.50 xG in their draw against Manchester United, while their latest 2-1 defeat at Ipswich saw them attempt 13 shots and create three big chances.
Hull have made a competitive start following promotion, recording victories against Manchester United and Coventry alongside draws against Aston Villa, Chelsea and Everton. However, their defensive performances have been less convincing. Everton generated 1.79 xG and created eight big chances in a 2-2 draw, while Newcastle attempted 22 shots and produced 1.74 xG against Hull.
The visitors have conceded at least twice in two of their three away league fixtures, suggesting Fulham should have opportunities to improve their attacking return.
How the bookies view it
Fulham are 3/4 favourites, carrying an implied winning probability of 57.1%. The draw is 3/1, representing 25%, while Hull are 15/4, implying a 21.1% chance of victory.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 13/17, representing 56.7%, while both teams to score is 3/4, carrying an implied probability of 57.1%.
Head to head: Fulham hold a strong record
Fulham have won the previous four meetings between the clubs, giving the hosts a favourable recent record.
However, Hull's promotion and changes in personnel mean the current attacking and defensive statistics provide a stronger basis for assessing Saturday's fixture.
Player to watch: Joshua King constant threat for the hosts
Joshua King has scored twice during Fulham's opening six league matches, registering 14 shots, including seven on target. His shooting opportunities carry a combined value of 1.54 xG, while he has also created six chances for teammates.
King's attacking involvement makes him an important player in Fulham's attempts to secure their first victory. Hull have allowed opponents to create numerous opportunities in recent matches, and King's movement into dangerous positions should provide another attacking outlet for the hosts.
Predicted lineups
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno, Tete, Affengruber, Bassey, Sessegnon, Charles, Berge, Bobb, King, Iwobi, Garcia.
Hull City (5-4-1): Tzolakis, Coyle, Mendy, Egan, Ajayi, Giles, Thomas, Slater, Crooks, Gelhardt, McBurnie.
Anything else catch the eye
Fulham over 1.5 team goals is the best bet at 3/4.
Fulham's home attacking performances provide the strongest justification for the selection. They have generated 6.89 xG across three matches at Craven Cottage, averaging 2.29 per fixture. That is an encouraging return for a team still searching for its first victory.
Their performance against Crystal Palace demonstrated the difference between results and underlying quality. Fulham created chances worth 3.88 xG but scored only twice, highlighting how poor finishing has contributed to their disappointing start.
Hull's defensive statistics make this a favourable matchup. The visitors have conceded at least twice in two of their three away league fixtures, while Everton and Newcastle both created numerous opportunities against them.
Fulham have scored two or more in two of their three home matches, matching Hull's record of conceding at least twice in two of their three away fixtures. The main concern remains Fulham's finishing. Their inability to convert opportunities has already cost them points, and there is no guarantee that will change immediately.
However, the attacking process remains encouraging. Fulham are creating enough chances to score regularly, while Hull have struggled to prevent opponents from generating opportunities. Backing the hosts to score twice removes the requirement for a victory and focuses on the strongest statistical evidence available.
GambleAware