Everton welcome Fulham to the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday in a Premier League fixture that could have more significance than the table suggests.
Both sides are level on 11 points after ten rounds, sitting in the lower half, and each will see this as an opportunity to steady form before the international break.
Everton were comfortably beaten 3-0 by Spurs in their last home outing, their first league defeat at their new stadium. It ended a solid run of results in front of their fans and marked their first home loss since early autumn.
The Toffees will be eager to avoid consecutive home defeats for the first time since last season, and they have not done so under David Moyes since October 2011. Their underlying process has been middling: across the last eight games they have averaged 1.19 xG for and 1.29 xGA, with home matches averaging just 2.6 total xG which is a reflection of their low-event approach.
Fulham arrive with confidence restored after a much-needed 3-2 win over Wolves, their third victory of the season. All three wins have come at Craven Cottage, but their away form remains an issue, losing four in a row and creating little on the road. Their away xG of 1.02 for and 1.28 against highlights that struggle to translate possession into clear chances.
Historically, Fulham have enjoyed this fixture in recent years, losing only once in the last seven meetings (W3 D3), though that defeat came in May when Everton won 3-1 in London. With both teams ranked around mid-table for xPTS, this one looks tight on paper with neither side excels in front of goal, and both rely on structure rather than risk to collect results.
How the bookies view it: Toffees favourites
Everton are priced at 5/4 to win, implying a 44.4% chance of victory, while the draw at 47/20 equates to roughly 29.6%, and Fulham at 5/2 suggests a 28.6% probability. The market expects a close contest, with the home side marginally favoured by model and odds alike.
For goals, over 2.5 is 5/4, which implies only a 44.4% chance of a high-scoring game, while both teams to score at 19/20 converts to 51.3%.
The balance of probabilities aligns with the data: the market sees a slightly better than even chance of both sides finding the net but still expects fewer than three goals overall which is consistent with the low xG and shot volumes that define both teams’ current profiles.
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Head to Head: Hosts hold the edge
Across the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Everton hold the edge with 11 wins, four draws, and five defeats, though the recent balance has shifted. Fulham have lost just one of the last seven Premier League encounters (W3 D3 L1), including a 3-1 home defeat in May that ended their positive run.
The match-ups between these sides have rarely been goal-heavy. Only seven of the last 20 have gone over 2.5 goals, and just three have seen four or more. The average total xG across the most recent five league meetings sits below 2.7, reinforcing the pattern of tight, low-scoring contests.
At Goodison (now Hill Dickinson Stadium), Everton have historically held a clear upper hand, winning seven of the last 10 home fixtures, but recent trends show a narrowing gap.
Fulham’s improved organisation under Silva has made them more competitive in these encounters, particularly in suppressing chance volume with Everton’s last three home meetings with Fulham have produced an average of 1.22 xG for and 1.32 xGA, in line with their current home averages this season.
Given the history and style profiles of both clubs, the head-to-head data complements the bet angle perfectly. Matches between them tend to feature few big chances and limited shot volume but enough physical duels to produce cards, especially with both sides seeing both teams carded in four of five home or away fixtures this season.
Players to watch: Grealish to trouble Tete
That trend adds another strong layer to the Jack Grealish angle. When he has started on the left this season, the opposition right-sided defender has been booked in all five relevant Premier League matches with Trai Hume and Nordi Mukiele for Sunderland, Daniel Munoz for Crystal Palace, Kyle Walker-Peters for West Ham United, Matty Cash for Aston Villa, and Mats Wieffer for Brighton & Hove Albion. Each has struggled to contain him in one-on-one situations without resorting to fouls.
Grealish’s role under David Moyes makes that outcome predictable. He carries the ball often, holds possession in tight spaces, and draws multiple challenges as defenders attempt to stop Everton’s left-side progressions. He has been fouled two or more times in seven consecutive Premier League matches and 30 times overall this season, ranking among the most-fouled players in the division.
Kenny Tete, Fulham’s right-back, profiles similarly to those who have already found trouble against him. He plays on the front foot, commits early in duels, and averages over two combined tackles and interceptions per match in defensive areas, alongside six fouls in seven appearances.
With Fulham typically forced deeper away from home, Tete is likely to face long spells defending one-on-one against Grealish. The combination of Grealish’s dribbling volume and Tete’s defensive style makes the probability of both Grealish to be fouled two or more times and Tete to be booked very strong. The matchup consistently generates contact, and every data point this season suggests it should do so again at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Predicted line-ups
Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford, O’Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko, Gueye, Garner, McNeil, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish, Barry
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Leno, Tete, Andersen, Bassey, Sessegnon, Berge, Lukic, King, Iwobi, Wilson, Jimenez
Anything else catch the eye?
This fixture profiles as one of the more controlled and low-event matches of the weekend. Everton’s recent home metrics paint a clear picture: they average 1.16 xG for and 1.44 xGA per home game, producing just 2.6 total xG on average. They rarely open up with only one of their last four at home has gone over 2.5 goals. Their approach under Moyes remains disciplined, prioritising compactness over fluidity.
Fulham’s away data points in the same direction. They have scored in only two of five away matches and have generated just 1.02 xG for per game. Their non-penalty xG ratio away from home sits at 47%, ranking them in the bottom six for attacking output. Across their last four away trips, they have failed to score more than once and have conceded an average of 1.3 xGA.
Big-chance data reinforces the pattern both sides average around three to four big chances per four-game window, with few matches featuring sustained attacking volume. Everton’s home games see limited shot activity, averaging fewer than eight shots inside the box per game, while Fulham’s away matches are similarly conservative.
From a cards angle, both sides rank consistently for bookings. Everton have seen both teams carded in four of five home fixtures, while Fulham’s away record matches that, landing in four of five. With referee Andy Madley in charge who is averaging around three cards per match the setup favours a controlled tempo with enough duels and stoppages to bring both sides into the book.
The combination of low xG totals, limited big-chance creation, and consistent card trends makes under 2.5 Goals & both teams to be carded the standout selection. The data supports a tactical, competitive game rather than an open contest.
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