England begin their 2026-27 UEFA Nations League campaign against Spain at Wembley on Saturday with kick-off scheduled for 19:45. The Three Lions return to League A against the world champions in their first international fixture since securing bronze at the World Cup.
Thomas Tuchel’s side have been drawn alongside Spain, Croatia and Czechia in Group A3. Each country plays six matches, with the top two progressing to the quarter-finals in March 2027.
England won six of their eight World Cup matches. They beat Croatia and Panama after drawing with Ghana, before knockout victories over DR Congo, Mexico and Norway took them into the semi-finals.
Argentina inflicted England’s only defeat, but Tuchel’s team responded by beating France 6-4 in the third-place play-off. They scored 20 goals across the tournament but have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches.
Spain won the World Cup without losing. Luis de la Fuente’s side drew their opening game against Cape Verde before winning seven consecutive matches, culminating in a 1-0 extra-time victory over Argentina.
They defeated Austria, Portugal, Belgium and France without conceding during the knockout rounds. Spain now travel to Wembley on an 18-match unbeaten run.
England will be without Tino Livramento, Kobbie Mainoo, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford and Declan Rice after all five withdrew through injury. James Garner and Morgan Gibbs-White have joined the squad as replacements.
Trent Alexander-Arnold returns after missing the World Cup, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lewis Hall, Jarrad Branthwaite, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Alex Scott and Rio Ngumoha have also been selected.
Spain have retained most of their World Cup-winning squad. Lamine Yamal, Rodri, Pedri, Pau Cubarsí, Nico Williams and Mikel Oyarzabal are included, while Dean Huijsen and Fermin Lopez return. Gavi and Joan Garcia miss out through injury. Marcos Llorente is absent after retiring from international football, while Espanyol forward Roberto Fernández has received his first senior call-up.
How the bookies view it
Spain are 158/100 favourites, carrying an implied probability of 38.8%. England are 2/1, representing 33.3%, while the draw is 5/2, giving it a 28.6% chance.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 7/8, implying 53.3%. Both teams to score is 7/10, carrying an implied probability of 58.8%.
Head to head: Spain have been too strong for England recently
Spain have won three of the five meetings since 2015, with England recording one victory and the other match ending level.
The latest meeting came in the Euro 2024 final. Nico Williams gave Spain the lead before Cole Palmer equalised, but Mikel Oyarzabal scored four minutes from time to secure a 2-1 victory.
The teams also met twice during the 2018 Nations League. Spain won 2-1 at Wembley before England responded with a 3-2 victory in Seville.
Four of the five meetings since 2015 finished with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. Those outcomes landed in all three competitive encounters, with no draw across the latest three matches.
Player to watch: Harry Kane to be England's main threat
Harry Kane remains England’s main attacking threat after scoring 85 goals across 121 senior appearances.
The England captain has started the Bundesliga season with three goals and one assist across 296 minutes for Bayern Munich. He has generated 2.17 xG from 16 attempts, with five hitting the target.
Kane has also recorded 0.86 xA, created eight chances and supplied two big chances. His 25 touches inside the opposition penalty area show he continues to reach dangerous positions despite dropping deeper to connect attacks.
That club form follows six goals across seven World Cup appearances. Kane scored twice against Croatia before adding goals against Panama, DR Congo and Mexico.
Predicted lineups
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford, Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Guehi, O’Reilly, Anderson, Bellingham, Saka, Rogers, Gordon, Kane.
Spain (4-2-3-1:) Simon, Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella, Rodri, Pedri, Yamal, Olmo, Williams, Oyarzabal.
Anything else catch the eye
Spain produced the strongest underlying performance at the World Cup, generating 15.63 xG and allowing 2.36 xGA. Their 87% xG ratio ranked first across the tournament.
They recorded 140 attempts while facing 46, with 81 of their shots coming from inside the penalty area. Spain also registered 54 shots on target while allowing 10, creating 24 big chances and conceding five.
England generated 14.34 xG and allowed 9.33 xGA, producing a 61% xG ratio. They created 33 big chances but conceded 16, while opponents registered 99 attempts and 33 shots on target.
The head-to-head record supports the goals markets, but Spain’s defensive performance makes both teams to score difficult to support at 7/10.
England carry a threat through Kane, Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon, but Rice’s withdrawal weakens their midfield against the tournament’s strongest possession side. Palmer and Rashford’s absences also reduce Tuchel’s attacking alternatives.
Spain return with most of their World Cup-winning squad and have shown they are capable of controlling elite opponents. Their superior defensive numbers and seven-match winning run give them the stronger profile at Wembley.
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