Burnley welcome Wolverhampton Wanderers to Turf Moor on Friday with the Championship fixture kicking off at 20:00. Both teams are looking to recover from disappointing midweek results, although their attacking performances suggest opportunities could emerge at both ends.
Burnley have collected five points from their last three Championship matches, but their latest 2-2 draw against Charlton Athletic highlighted their difficulty protecting leads.
Jacob Bruun Larsen opened the scoring before Largie Ramazani restored Burnley's advantage following Charlton's equaliser. Ivan Mesik then struck deep into stoppage time to deny the Clarets victory. Burnley attempted 18 shots but generated only 1.13 expected goals (xG). Charlton produced 2.14 xG from nine attempts, highlighting the quality of opportunities conceded by Nicky Hayen's side.
Hayen was particularly frustrated by another late equaliser, having experienced a similar setback against Derby County. He also questioned his players' decision-making after they failed to convert opportunities to finish the contest.
Burnley have scored seven goals and conceded eight across five home Championship fixtures. Their underlying figures of 1.26 xG and 1.54 expected goals against (xGA) per match suggest defensive performances remain a concern.
They have scored in every home fixture but have yet to keep a clean sheet.
Wolves arrive following consecutive defeats against Middlesbrough and Bolton Wanderers, although their latest performance deserved a better outcome. Cesar Peixoto's side lost 3-1 against Bolton despite generating 2.27 xG from 19 shots, compared with their opponents' 1.64 xG. Only three Wolves attempts tested the goalkeeper.
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde equalised shortly after half-time, but Wolves failed to capitalise on further opportunities before Bolton secured victory. Peixoto acknowledged that his players needed to improve their finishing and compete more effectively inside the penalty area.
Their previous defeat at Middlesbrough was less encouraging. Wolves managed only 0.69 xG and two shots on target during a 1-0 loss.
However, their away performances have generally been more productive. Wolves have scored eight goals in five Championship away matches, including three against Preston and two against both West Ham and Birmingham. They average 1.41 xG and 1.25 xGA on their travels, having conceded eight goals.
Burnley have injury concerns involving Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan Beyer and Josh Cullen, while Zeki Amdouni, Bashir Humphreys and Ashley Barnes also require fitness assessments.
Wolves have concerns over Raul Jimenez and Yerson Mosquera. Adam Armstrong is expected to lead their attack, supported by Bellegarde.
How the bookies view it
Wolves are 13/10 favourites, carrying an implied winning probability of 43.5%. Burnley are 19/10, representing 34.5%, while the draw is 13/5, implying 27.8%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 13/16, giving it an implied probability of 55.2%. Both teams to score is priced at 4/6, representing an implied probability of 60%.
Head to head: Burnley hold the slight advantage
Burnley have recorded five victories across the last 13 meetings, with Wolves winning three and five fixtures ending level. The Clarets are unbeaten in the six home encounters included in that record, winning three and drawing three.
Last season's Premier League meetings produced a 3-2 Burnley victory at Molineux in October 2025 and a 1-1 draw at Turf Moor in May 2026. Only three of the last 13 encounters have produced over 2.5 goals, while six have seen both teams score.
The previous two meetings at Turf Moor both finished 1-1.
Player to watch: Largie Ramazani to continue his strong form
Largie Ramazani has scored twice in seven Championship appearances for Burnley, generating 1.15 xG from 16 shots. Three attempts have hit the target, giving him an average of 2.29 shots per appearance.
The winger has played 459 minutes and created seven chances, producing 1.09 expected assists (xA). His combined attacking output stands at 2.24 xG and xA. Ramazani scored against Swansea earlier in the campaign before finding the net against Charlton on Tuesday.
His latest performance included four shots, one on target and 0.24 xG during 80 minutes. He also created an opportunity worth 0.25 xA. That followed a productive creative display against Watford, where Ramazani supplied two chances worth 0.33 xA.
Across those two appearances, he has generated 0.58 xA and created three chances.
Wolves have conceded eight goals across five away Championship matches. Ramazani's willingness to shoot and increasing creative influence could prove important against a visiting defence that has struggled for consistency.
Predicted lineups
Burnley (4-2-3-1): Coudert, Walker, Ahmedhodzic, Julio, Pires, Alleyne, Hatate, Ramazani, Laurent, Bruun Larsen, Vardy.
Wolves (4-2-3-1): Jose Sa, Trippier, Djiga, Krejci, Bueno, Andre, James, Bellegarde, Lopez, Mane, Armstrong.
Anything else catch the eye
The current-season home and away statistics provide the strongest argument. All five Burnley home fixtures have contained at least two goals, with three producing over 2.5. Four of Wolves' five away matches have also featured at least three goals.
Burnley have scored in every home match but conceded eight times. Wolves have scored eight and conceded eight on their travels, with their away fixtures averaging 3.2 goals.
The underlying defensive figures support the selection. Burnley average 1.54 xGA at Turf Moor, while Wolves allow 1.25 xGA away from home. Neither team has consistently restricted opponents to low-quality opportunities.
Recent performances reinforce those concerns. Burnley conceded twice against Charlton despite leading on two occasions, while Wolves created 2.27 xG against Bolton but failed to convert enough of their opportunities.
There are reasons for caution. Only three of the last 13 head-to-head meetings have produced over 2.5 goals, and neither team's attacking xG average is especially dominant.
However, the current home and away scoring patterns carry greater weight than historical meetings involving different squads and managers.
Burnley's defensive vulnerability and Wolves' ability to score on their travels provide a reasonable case for three goals. The goals market also removes the need to identify a winner between two inconsistent teams.
GambleAware