Two sides expected to challenge near the top of the Championship meet at Turf Moor on Wednesday, where Burnley face Middlesbrough at 20:00. The early results have created a clear contrast, with the Clarets still searching for their first league win and Boro taking six points from their opening three matches.
Burnley recovered from two goals down to draw 2-2 with West Ham on the opening weekend, with Zian Flemming scoring twice during the closing stages. That response offered encouragement, but defeats at West Brom and Norwich have increased the pressure on Nicky Hayen.
The Clarets have conceded nine goals, allowing at least twice in every league match. Their 5.90 xGA ranks among the highest totals in the division, while opponents have produced 30 shots inside the box and 10 big chances.
Their 4-1 defeat at Norwich exposed the scale of the defensive problem. Mo Toure scored inside 90 seconds after Anel Ahmedhodzic failed to clear, before Andre Brooks added a second three minutes later. Burnley then conceded from a corner before the midway point of the first half.
Hayen described the start as unacceptable and stressed that the whole team had to defend. His view followed similar comments after the defeat at West Brom, when he said Burnley had played as individuals and lacked solutions against the home side’s intensity.
Middlesbrough have followed a different path. They came from behind to beat Lincoln 2-1, lost by the same scoreline at Blackburn and then responded with a 3-1 victory over previously unbeaten West Brom.
Kim Hellberg’s side rank third for xPTS with 5.98 and second for total xG with 6.09. Their ratio of 0.66 is also the second-best in the Championship, showing Boro have controlled a strong share of the chances across their opening fixtures.
Burnley are preparing for two changes. Josh Laurent is suspended after receiving a second yellow card at Carrow Road, with Mike Tresor expected to enter midfield. Flemming is close to joining Ipswich, leaving Zeki Amdouni in line to start in attack.
Middlesbrough have a fitness concern over Jeremy Sarmiento after he left the West Brom match shortly before half-time. Will Lankshear is expected to retain his place as the central striker.
How the bookies view it
Burnley are 9/5, implying a 35.7% chance of winning. The draw is 13/5, which represents 27.8%, while Middlesbrough are 31/20, carrying an implied probability of 39.2%.
Over 2.5 goals is available at 4/5, implying 55.6%, with under 2.5 priced at 15/14, or 48.3%. Both teams to score is 13/20 for yes, representing 60.6%, while no is 13/10, implying 43.5%.
Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals is priced at 6/5, giving the selection an implied probability of 45.5%.
Head to head: Balanced record
The overall record is balanced across 17 meetings since 2010, with six wins apiece and five draws.
Burnley are unbeaten in the last eight, recording four victories and four draws. Both Championship meetings during the 2024-25 campaign finished level, including a 1-1 draw at Turf Moor followed by a goalless game at the Riverside.
Player to watch: Will Lankshear to continue his excellent start to the season
Will Lankshear has scored six goals in five matches since joining Middlesbrough from Tottenham during the summer.
The 21-year-old scored twice against Lincoln on his league debut. He converted from close range for the equaliser before linking with Riley McGree to produce a stoppage-time winner.
Lankshear added another double against West Brom, reacting first after goalkeeper Max O’Leary made saves on both occasions. His positioning around rebounds and loose balls has given Middlesbrough a consistent penalty-box threat.
Predicted lineups
Burnley (4-2-3-1): Weiss, Walker, Ahmedhodzic, Alleyne, Roberts, Hannibal, Tresor, Bruun Larsen, Ramsey, Satpaev, Amdouni.
Middlesbrough (4-2-3-1): Vitek, Brittain, Ayling, Malanda, Borges, Morris, Peart-Harris, Whittaker, McGree, Sarmiento, Lankshear.
Anything else catch the eye
Burnley’s only home game showed more attacking promise than their league position suggests. They generated 2.73 xG, registered five shots on target and created four big chances against West Ham, earning a deserved point after sustained late pressure.
The problem remains their work without the ball. West Brom scored three times after Burnley failed to match their energy, while Norwich repeatedly found space before Laurent’s dismissal. The red card came with the Clarets already three goals behind, so it does not explain the result.
Middlesbrough’s away defeat at Blackburn also requires context. They took an early lead through Sarmiento and applied pressure after falling behind, finishing with 13 attempts from inside the penalty area. Hellberg identified a weak 15-minute defensive spell rather than a wider performance problem.
Their response against West Brom was significant. Boro struggled for intensity during the first half but created repeated opportunities after the interval, with Hellberg describing it as “chance after chance.” Three goals followed, while O’Leary made five further saves during Middlesbrough’s strongest period.
Boro have scored in every league match and have reached two goals in two of the three. Their 41 shots inside the box rank third in the division, while 13 big chances place them fourth.
Burnley have allowed every opponent to score at least twice, with their problems appearing across set pieces, transitions and open-play attacks. The expected loss of Flemming weakens the case for relying on the hosts to contribute towards a match-goals bet.
Focusing on Middlesbrough removes that requirement and targets the clearest weakness in the fixture. The visitors have the chance volume, an in-form striker and a stronger overall performance profile.
Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals is the bet at 6/5.
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