BORUSSIA Dortmund will be looking to consolidate second-place in the Bundesliga on Wednesday night when they welcome relegation-threatened Mainz to the Signal Iduna Park.
Dortmund's title bid took a huge dent in Der Klassiker during the last midweek round of fixtures and Bayern Munich may well have been crowned champions by the time BVB take to the field for this fixture.
Lucien Favre's men are firmly in the driving seat to finish the “best of the rest” but with a trip to third-placed RB Leipzig to come this weekend, Die Schwarzgelben still have work to do to if they want to tighten their grip on second-place
The German giants come into this fixture off the back of a last-gasp 1-0 win away at Fortuna Dusseldorf on Saturday – a result which Mainz failed to capitalise on the following day when falling to an agonising 1-0 defeat at home to Augsburg.
Achim Bieierlorzer's side have won only one of their last seven Bundesliga matches and now find themselves just three points above the second automatic relegation spot.
With road trips to Dortmund and Leverkusen to come either side of a colossal battle with Werder Bremen this weekend, Mainz are at serious risk of dropping into the second-tier.
Outright Betting
Borussia Dortmund have won nine of their last 10 Bundesliga matches and the hosts are red-hot favourites here at 1/4 with Bet 365.
Mainz are massive underdogs at 11/1 with William Hill and a share of the spoils at the Signal Iduna Park is also deemed unlikely at 11/2 with Bet 365.
Betting Angles
I successfully backed Borussia Dortmund to make the net bulge away at least twice away at lowly Paderborn a few weeks ago and I fancy Lucien Favre's vibrant young side to do the same here against a Mainz side who have the highest goals-against tally away from home in the Bundesliga.
Bieierlorzer's strugglers have shipped 35 goals across 15 road trips to date – an average of 2.5 goals per game – and such defensive frailty does not bode well ahead of a clash with star-studded Dortmund.
There is little value in backing two or more BVB goals at 2/7 with Betway, however, an alternative angle that I'm attracted to is the 13/10 that PaddyPower are offering for Dortmund to score two or mores goals, Dortmund to take five or more corners and two or more Mainz bookings.
Indeed, Dortmund have only scored once in each their last two matches, however, the hosts will be coming up against one of the most brittle backlines in the Bundesliga on Wednesday night and I wouldn't be surprised to see Mainz boss Bieierlorzer ring the changes here with one eye on Saturday's make-or-break battle with Werder Bremen.
What's more, Mainz games have featured an average of 11.1 corners per game this season – the fourth highest in the division – and Boruusia Dortmund's average corners taken per game sits at 6.2, a total only bettered by Bayern Munich.
It's also worth mentioning that Mainz have racked up nine yellow cards across their last three matches and they are averaging 2.8 per game since the restart, and I'm happy to back the visitors to collect at least two cards during a contest where they can be expected to be on the back foot for long-spells.
That line of thought has also lured towards the 6/4 that PaddyPower are offering for Dortmund to win, Dortmund to take the most corners and for Mainz to collect the most cards.
Dortmund are heavily fancied to win this match and for reasons already discussed, adding the hosts to hit the most corners and for Mainz to receive the most cards looks like a nice way of squeezing some value out of what looks like a Bundesliga mismatch.
This German Bundesliga match between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz will be played on Jun 17, 2020 and kick off at 19:30. Check below for our tipsters best Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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